About me: 6.3, 95kgs, fit- I keeps extremely active, hazel eyes, black hair, Italian-English ethnicity, tattoos up my arm and neck, I get told often I look like Ryan Reynolds, although I don’t see it. I defiantly have an intimidating sort of look, dark set back eyes. I kinda do look pissed off all the time-so if your into that then that’s a bonus! Saying that I am nothing like the way I look. I am a big softy and get along with pretty much anyone. Not uncommon for people to think I’m 25-28 because of my maturity- I’m also a great listener, I won’t chew your ear off with bullshit. I’m pretty self aware- I’m certainly not your classic fuckwit who thinks his the fresh prince of Melbourne
As far as interests go-I’m really passionate about cars, Muay Thai, lifting weights, partying all the shit young men are into. And also cooking believe it or not
I’ve Been out of home since I was 18 and am totally independent. I work full time and have my shit together. Week days I’m pretty flat out from the time I get up untill I go to sleep. But defiantly open to making spare time for someone who I can spend time with!
What I’m after: seriously open to just about anything, even just someone to take out on the weekends for a drink/cinema, a gym partner would be absolutely ideal! even just someone to chat shit with online is fine- preferable age is between 22-30. Seriously not fussed on looks/figure but blue eyes do go along way for me

About me: 6.3, 95kgs, fit- I keeps extremely active, hazel eyes, black hair, Italian-English ethnicity, tattoos up my arm and neck, I get told often I look like Ryan Reynolds, although I don’t see it. I defiantly have an intimidating sort of look, dark set back eyes. I kinda do look pissed off all the time-so if your into that then that’s a bonus! Saying that I am nothing like the way I look. I am a big softy and get along with pretty much anyone. Not uncommon for people to think I’m 25-28 because of my maturity- I’m also a great listener, I won’t chew your ear off with bullshit. I’m pretty self aware- I’m certainly not your classic fuckwit who thinks his the fresh prince of Melbourne
As far as interests go-I’m really passionate about cars, Muay Thai, lifting weights, partying all the shit young men are into. And also cooking believe it or not
I’ve Been out of home since I was 18 and am totally independent. I work full time and have my shit together. Week days I’m pretty flat out from the time I get up untill I go to sleep. But defiantly open to making spare time for someone who I can spend time with!
What I’m after: seriously open to just about anything, even just someone to take out on the weekends for a drink/cinema, a gym partner would be absolutely ideal! even just someone to chat shit with online is fine- preferable age is between 22-30. Seriously not fussed on looks/figure but blue eyes do go along way for me

Source
I'm Iskarel. I maintain the PvE Thief builds and guides on Snow Crows
With a PvE perspective, I'm going to run through the changes, discuss their impact, and talk about current meta builds and how they're impacted.
Want the build-by-build cliff notes? Skip to the bottom, search for "tl;dr"
I know this is a lot. Think of it as a reference document.
A LOT has changed. The builds aren't unrecognizable but the texture has changed almost across the board.

Flanking is Dead (for most endgame bosse)

To make them more reliable in endgame PvE content, all effects that benefit when the player strikes from the flank or from behind now always apply their benefits when striking defiant foes.

Not all players know that "flanking" or "from behind or the sides" just means—don't be in front of the target.
Ever used a build with Thief runes? Just don't stand directly in front of the target.
What fewer players will know is that there's a small set of skills that actually need you to be ~180-degrees behind your target.

• Thief Backstab (deals double damage from behind)
• Thief Sword Stealth Attack (only dazes from behind)
• Ranger Greatsword Hilt (dazes from the front, stuns from behind. This basically doesn't matter in PvE)
• Mesmer Downstate phantasm (deals more damage if the phantasm hits from behind. Hey it's like a Thief!)

Which way does Keep Construct face when it descends back to the arena after the orb-rift-push phase?
Which way does Sabetha face during her Flame Wall?
I'm not going to answer these questions because the answers don't matter anymore! This skill expression is now gone.
Just backstab from any angle.
Ah but "defiant foes"? What isn't included there?
Can you backstab Primordus in the Harvest Temple strike if your group stays on the left vs right side, when looking from the center towards the dragon?

You would have to be on the right side. The left is the dragon's face.

Which way does Conjured Amalgamate face?

When approaching CA's platform, it is facing to your right. This also applies to the hands. Stand on the left side of the platform, and "above" the hands (closer to the portal leading away from this encounter).

Which way do the hands on Adina face?

2 o'clock (north), 5 o'clock (northwest), 7 o'clock (south), 10 o'clock (southeast)
No, I don't know why.
Just use your rifle and pierce two hands with Spotter's Shot + Death's Judgment! That's better than remembering these facing positions.

These are non-defiant "prop" type enemies. Also included here is Drakkar, the Octovine, and Tequatl. IIRC.
BTW Drakkar is made up 17 prop pieces, and you can only cast Deadeye's Mark on one of them. Don't play Deadeye here, you're trolling yourself. :D

Acrobatics Mental Gymnastics

Yeah this ain't it, chief. This is still a defensive and mobility-oriented traitline.
The damage modifier in Endless Stamina can't compete with Deadly Arts or Critical Strikes, even when combined with the Power in Swinder's Equilibrium.
The other stuff is maybe interesting for solo open world champions but Shadow Arts is already quite capable at that, and Condition Thief has a lot more toys to work with when solo compared to Power.
It's something but this traitline still feels ironically directionless.

Improvisational Theater of War

Interesting! We can now use this traitline predictably, resetting the cooldown of all or utility skills. On the surface that's good because it means we'll always get value out of the reset...unless our skill uses are staggered. More on that later.

Mag Bomb Delenda Est.

Currently this skill's damage-per-cast-time is roughly double that of Daredevil Staff 2, Weakening Charge. Notably, the cast time is short because it pulses damage.
The coefficient we have on the wiki, drawn from the Game's API, is 4.10. ANet lists a 1.50 (per hit, so 4.50 total) nerfed to 0.70. So... Uh...
Let's say Throw Magnetic Bomb's damage is nerfed to 50% of its current damage. Or there about.
So next patch, one Throw Magnetic Bomb is close to the damage of one Staff 2, but the damage comes out over time (during our Assassin Signet burst) and the cast animation is faster than Staff 2.

But is it worth losing Executioner?
Probably not. Executioner is approximately 9.52% damage on a fight that spends 50% of its time above 50% target HP and 50% of time below (due to Ferocious Strikes).
That's a lot of damage to be made up by another use of a stolen skill!

Daredevil's Bound to be Good

Bound: Increased power coefficient from 1.75 to 3.5

This ratchets up the damage of our dodge so that it beats the damage-per-cast-time of Punishing Strikes (skill 1 part C) and Staff 5, while still losing to Staff Strike and Staff Bash (skill 1 parts A/B), Staff 2, and Fist Flurry/Palm Strike.
This damage increase is valuable because

• (A) it makes dodging better for damage, on top of the damage modifiers provided by Havoc Specialist and Bounding Dodger
• (B) if we get excess endurance from our helpful allies, burning it off to maintain our modifiers hurts our DPS less on the future patch.

Auto chain go brrrr

Staff Strike, Staff Bash: Increased power coefficient.

... Uh oh.
This increase the DPS of the first and second part of the chain well beyond the last hit.
The optimal DPS rotation now involves interrupting the chain after the 2nd hit.
That's not easy to do on most professions, which have a limited number of viable interrupts, but we're Thief, baby!
Staff Strike, Staff Bash, Weakening Charge. Repeat. Throw in a Fist Flurry. Save your Palm Strike. Yeah. This sort of thing.
Calculations done by REMagic42 ( training-accident-36 ) show the following

• new auto chain interrupt rotation: 40,252
• old benchmark rotation: 38,593

A not insignificant DPS increase provided by this (unintended?) balance predicament.
You could just not do this. That's up to you. The build is getting buffed by ~4,000 DPS next patch but it still has all the old problems. Don't know those? Read here

Let's Get Physical (Lights out, follow the noise)

Various Physical Skill cooldown reductions

These are neat and strictly a positive.
Left, a great player who provides benchmarks for Power and Condition Daredevil, already tested Condition Daredevil with cooldown-traited Impairing Daggers and found them simply worse in group content vs Devourer Venom. You can read more on his benchmark.
So the Impairing Daggers cooldown reduction (CDR) doesn't matter to us.
A cooldown reduction for Channeled Vigor would've been cool!

This skill basically gives you a get-out-of-jail-free dodge if you're ever scared that burning all your dodges for Havoc Specialist will leave you vulnerable. You can get a dodge with Withdraw on a shorter cooldown but that travels backwards from your facing direction which can be scary.
This skill is also very useful for maintaining Lotus Training uptime when playing Condition Daredevil. If you can't keep hitting the boss with your auto-attack chain and F1 Steal, you will run out of endurance and lose your condition damage buff. Use Channeled Vigor to maintain buff uptime when you can't hit the boss. (This tip comes from Left!)

Impact Strike is still worse defiance-bar to cooldown ratio vs Basilisk Venom, but any improvement is nice. This skill is good when you can't guarantee all hits of Basilisk Venom will hit your target, or when you need to CC more frequently than Basilisk's cooldown allows.

Death-onate Plasma and "Boon Thief"

Farewell, Boon Thief. Without Quickness, we can no longer role-compress all those shiny boons in Plasma into a Quickness Build.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume that the damage of Detonate Plasma will not be worth its cast time purely from a DPS perspective, especially on a Condition Build, but you might still get some boon uptime from Daredevils on fights like Matthias and Twin Largos' Kenut.
You can now permanently sunset your Celestial/Ritualist gear for Boon Thief. Will you use it for Alacrity Specter later? I don't now, I don't know how much Alacrity is given by that trait. We'll talk more later. :)

Also Icebrood Saga exists

These really don't matter. Unstable Reagent is maybe a DPS increase, I don't have a log with it for cast time.
This is NOT Unstable Artifact BTW. That skill is still worth using for both Power and Condition DPS.
Cursed Artifact is like throw-Plaguelands, and an Ethereal field at that. It's free real estate on the Condition Build.
Time in a Bottle is squad-wide alacrity AND quickness. Take that, Chronomancer! It's only found in Cold War and randomly in EoD strikes. :)

Dumbed-down-eye

Deadeye Stolen Skill splash support

Stolen Skills now grant their beneficial effects around the caster.

These are mostly "splash" uptimes of boons, but you can also get superspeed and a modest heal. Neat! Deadeye providing a token amount of squad value beyond its DPS and CC output.

Deadeye Malicious Intent buff

Malicious Intent: Increased Malice gain from 1 to 2 in PvE only

This is actually big!
Firstly, this increases the damage dealt by the lower difficulty Be Quick or Be Killed Dagger Deadeye rotation (if you've ever heard someone described Dagger Deadeye as 5111151115111, that's this).

1 more Malice pip after each Mark and Stealth attack boost the damage modifier of Malicious Backstab. I don't have a quick estimate for this increase yet.

Secondly, this is wonderful for the Dagger-Dagger Maleficent Seven rotation.

All Power Dagger skills (Heartseeker, Dancing Dagger, Cloak & Dagger) are single-damage packet skills (with the exception of Dancing Dagger when bounced from your main target, to another enemy, and back to your main target). This means they have only one chance to score a crit, and thus only one chance to earn 2 Malice instead of 1.
Power Thief derives 15% critical chance from Critical Strikes' Keen Observer trait, which demands the player stay above 75% HP. You won't have 100% uptime of this trait in many raid fights, especially if your healer is slacking. If the current Dagger Deadeye benchmark was performed at 75% player HP, without drastically altering gear to accommodate for the missing critical chance, the benchmark could lose up to 12,000 DPS!, dropping it nearly into support territory.
This Malicious Intent buff gives you a safety cushion for one of those Initiative skills to score a non-crit, making the rotation more robust in endgame encounters. It does NOT reduce the minimum number of Initiative skills needed to reach maximum Malice: that is still 3 with Malicious Intent and 4 without. It does reduce the maximum needed by 1 skill, which is also great!

Quickly Fire For Effect

This trait no longer requires a target to grant boons to allies.

Er, it doesn't require one right now. Specifically, if you Mark a target, you can use your F2 and gain boons even if your stolen skill is obstructed by terrain. If you have your enemy targeted while outside 1,500 range you will get an out of range error that stops you from casting F2, but simply untargeting the enemy will let you use the skill to get boons. If you are obstructed or out of range, you don't hit the target.
I assume what this means is that if you do NOT have a marked target, you can cast a cantrip to get a new F2. That's cool and rather handy for the new Quickness build.

Shadow Flare isn't real, it can't hurt you

Shadow Flare: Reduced cooldown from 30 to 20 seconds. This skill only damages once instead of pulsing. Activate the flip-over Shadow Swap to trigger another damage instance from your original location.

Deadeye dumbed down. Navigating self-reveal with pulsing damage skills on DPS Deadeye has been a hallmark of modern builds for several years—Shadow Flare for Power, Thousand Needles for Condition.
That problem is now eliminated for Power. You don't need to know the timing, you don't need to know where to throw Shadow Flare. Just Do your backstab, cast Shadow Flare for one damage packet, cast it again, go for another Backstab. No fuss, no skill expression, no frustration, no learning curve.
I don't like this change, I understand why other people like this change. I think it's dumb to change this. If you don't like self-reveal, consider not playing the class that uses Stealth and Revealed for its DPS output.

Fun in the Chamber

One in the Chamber: This trait now also increase the damage of F2 Stolen Skills in addition to its previous effects

In case anyone is unfamiliar with Deadeye—it doesn't have access to any core Stolen Skills. No Mag Bombs here!
This is a nice perk. The important thing is that this trait gives us an extra F2 charge every time we use a Stolen Skill...That's for Quickness.
This trait is also valuable to Condition Deadeye builds (particularly since there's a 4/9 chance they get a stolen skill that applies damaging conditions!) and to Power Pistol-Pistol Deadeye. See more of that here.

Binding Shadow, my beloved

Binding Shadow - Reduced cooldown from 30 to20 seconds in PvE.

Cool! I love—

This skill now immobilizes marked targets instead of knocking them down

Oh. Uhhh it already immobilized them. I assume it immobilizes them more? That sucks, this was an amazing breakbar skill, particular on Condition Deadeye where it applied several poison stacks (natively, and via Panic Strike with Immobilize) and gave an extra F2 charge from One in the Chamber.
It's lower cooldown on boonstrip which is neat? Matches No Pain No Gain time in Fractals, I suppose.
Just use a Power Mesmer, they passively breathe boonstrip.

Quickness Deadeye builds

Three options!
Oops! All cantrips

This option will spam out cantrip like nobody's business to meet the voracious demand of Might uptime.
Fire For Effect grants 8 stacks of Might for 12 seconds. The with-Alacrity cooldown of Cantrips are: 16 (Binding Shadow, Shadow Flare), 20 seconds (Malicious Restoration heal), 25 seconds (Mercy, Shadow Gust). When using Mercy, the cooldown of F1 is effectively the cooldown of Mercy, plus minimally the cast time of the F2, plus the cast time of F1 again.
So some of our Might is locked behind 25+ seconds. Building for 100% Might Duration would be devastating for our DPS output. We could cover 100% Might uptime with a single trio of F2 casts anyway—Binding Shadow, Malicious Restoration, Shadow Flare—but that would not take tactical advantage of the natural Deadeye's Mark cooldown.
Instead, we'll cover Quickness with two sets of F2 casts, staggered across the duration of our Might stacks. Left has an old benchmark demonstrating this technique.

So that's our 24-might upkeep option. It's not pretty, and it's Cantrip spam. ANet said we wouldn't have this in the game anymore.
Well, what if we don't have to generate Might?
Then we have two options:
3 cantrips with no Improvisation

This option will maintain a burst of 24 might as we apply quickness, or we can space out the stolen skills to maintain at least 8 stacks indefinitely. Sounds pretty good!

Improvisation

We'll probably still be using Shadow Flare because it's just good damage, and Improvisation selects for builds that use active utility skills, not passive signets. We might even be able to use Malicious Intent instead of One in the Chamber for this build, earning us more damage on Malicious Backstab.

So we have options.

Quickness Deadeye weapon options (We don't have those! )

Maleficent Seven is the only equalizer at work that allows bad weapons to do somewhat okay, and without that, we're back to shopping with the to the usual harsh restriction of "the best single skill out of all these weapons crushes the validity of all other options".
Stealth attacks? Naw, just spam F2s without Malice.
"Filler" initiative skills used to build up to an Initiative reset at max Malice? Nope, don't care, whatever has the best initiative-to-damage ratio is what we're running.
Thief Dagger is about matched with Thief sword for auto attack damage but Dagger is home to the centralizing Cloak & Dagger → Backstab combo. This does huge damage from any direction—flanking is gone!
Sword, by contrast, suffers a DPS loss when using any dual wield skill, Headshot, or Black Powder. The only DPS gain skills are Cloak & Dagger (but the stealth attack for sword is BARELY worth using, you could actually just cast Cloak & Dagger twice in a row and do just as well), and Sword 2...without using the return-to shadowstep. Meaning Sword 2 has a 15-second cooldown. Just to do slightly more than the auto-attack.
Need CC? Pack an off-hand pistol and fill time with auto-attacks, they're very good.
What about Pistol?

It's just weaker.

Shortbow?

It sucks really bad against single targets.

Rifle? This is the sniper spec!

It sucks if you don't have Maleficent Seven for infinite Initiative and either stealth utility skills or Silent Scope to unlock Death's Judgment.

Specter, rant about single-target/ally-target support

Ally-targeted scepter skills now also grant a lesser effect to additional allies in a radius around the target.

I don't know why ANet is so obsessed with single target support for PvE Specter, but they'll learn its untenable eventually. They've been gradually walking back the single target focus ever since release, and we are now about 15 months past Specter's official release and coming up on 2 years since it's beta.
Ally-targeting is clunky.
Single-target support is nonviable. We have encounters that apply arena damage to all players, and each player in the squad can take damage from the same AoE and it's the healer's job to keep the whole team up.
A "lesser effect". Reduced duration? Great, what's the point of that? You might as well just make it all the reduced duration.
Does "splashed" Shadow Sap not even grant protection to the other allies? Great, we won't use it.
Hopefully this will just be something like reduced Barrier or Healing, and the Boons are intact, but it's already been confirmed by the new member of the design team, Trig, on a Twitch Stream (Mighty Teapot's?) that Endless Night will not give Quickness to "splashed" allies.
Maybe this skill shouldn't give quickness at all. Why is the design team not skill splitting? What are they afraid of?

The Dark Side of Scepter Splash

If you paid attention to Specter during its beta testing, you might be aware of a very weird build that used Endless Night (Scepter Pistol dual wield beam skill that granted quickness and 7-packets of Barrier to 3 allies, if you could pierce through the allies).
This rotation was initially theorycrafted by Left when Specter was first showed off. I did some early proof-of-concept on the build, then Left took it over and improved it to around 51,000 DPS.
That's a lot of damage!
Watch that video briefly, and notice how I swap between the enemy and my allies, applying one skill to the target then the Endless Night beam to my allies.
When Specter applies barrier to an ally, they receive a stack of Rotwallow Venom, which applies a short-duration stack of torment to a single enemy just like normal venoms.
Each cast of Endless Night back then was 21 applications of Rotwallow Venom, with more Torment duration than we have now.
ANet killed that build back during beta by making the beam target a single enemy, nerfing the quickness application, nerfing Rotwallow Venom duration, nerfing Specter's Torment damage modifier, nerfing Consume Shadows to require charging up.... The list goes on.
Why do I bring this up?

Scepter Autos on Allies

Currently the scepter auto chain applies 54 seconds of Torment (in the form of multiple stacks). If the scepter auto chain can instead apply barrier to 3 allies, then this balloons to 72 seconds without Strength of Shadows, or 108 seconds with Strength of Shadows.
Yes.
The auto-attack chain will be twice as strong when targeting allies, vs targeting the enemy.
Endless Night is not worth using against an enemy target, but it might be worth using on allies. This rotation won't have room for auto attacks, so I'm not pinning any hopes to this.
No, the optimal damage rotation will probably be Twilight combo, Siphon, and Shroud skills on the enemy, then filling time with Scepter skills on allies. We will probably spend less time in Shroud because those autos are just so cracked...

Second Opinion, moving away from Consume Shadows

Ever since beta all forms of Specter have run Consume Shadows—Alacrity, DPS, Heal. This is because Consume Shadows can apply barrier to allies, giving them Rotwallow venom. The other adept traits are purely defensive, so they're not used by the DPS and Alacrity builds...and Consume Shadows is an extremely potent healing tool. So potent, it's been nerfed repeatedly!

Charged time reduced from instant to 4 seconds, maximum shroud cut by more than 50%, conversion ratio reduced from 100 to 50%

Second Opinion will grant bonus Condition Damage, more with a Scepter. This should be, at minimum, +80/+80, which will beat the ~800 DPS provided by perfect Rotwallow Venom application from Consume Shadows.
Perfect?

If your allies are too injured and Consume Shadows only heals them overflowing into Barrier, you won't give them Rotwallow.

Traversing Dusk no longer gives Alacrity

This is just a heal trait now. That's just what it does.

Shadestep is the new Alacrity trait

Oh. Uh. I'll keep it quick.

1. This reduces our gameplay from 2 separate rotations with their own quirks and different Shroud lengths, to 1—the DPS rotation.

How do you give alacrity? Just go into shroud and push buttons.
How do you do DPS? Just go into shroud and push buttons.
Alacrity Specter's Well cooldowns were inaccessible inside Shadow Shroud because we inherited a shroud, not just a kit like Druid's Celestial Avatar or Holosmith's Photon Forge.
Druid Spirits off cooldown while in CA? Don't care, you can push em.
Specter wells off cooldown while in Shadow Shroud? You might be gaining DPS from shroud skills, or healing from Consume Shadows, but you're losing Alacrity uptime. Is that tradeoff worth it?
Doesn't matter anymore. Just do the benchmark DPS rotation.
You're too slow? Then your alacrity uptime will suffer. You need to be on pace with going in and out of shroud, just like the DPS rotation. Difference is, if you're bad at this, it's going to frustrate other people.
This is not the hardest rotation in game to optimize and you of course have the option to make it easier with Ritualist gear (which you should do anyway if you plan to still run Consume Shadows, will be a two-fold personal DPS loss).

\2. Ever been kicked out of Shroud by incoming damage in a raid/strike/open world meta? No more Alacrity uptime for you. Better refill your Shadow Force quickly—and Larcenous Torment generates Shadow Force FAR more slowly than Traversing Dusk

Fun fact: Traversing Dusk's 1% Shadow Force per ally in your shadowstep scales indefinitely, not just up to 5 players. That gives you colossal Shadow Force generation in crowded metas and even raids.

Want to use your Siphon on ally? No you don't, that's valuable Shadow Force generation you need to maintain tempo for Alacrity.
Again, you can wear Ritualist gear to soften this loss.
Want to have the utility of Well of Bounty? Well, previously that utility was tied to your Alacrity uptime, your DPS uptime (lingering outside shroud for Well of Bounty was a loss), and your healing output (Traversing Dusk, and maintaining tempo in/out of Shadow Shroud for Consume Shadows).
Now you can take Well of Bounty and have it on demand, at a DPS loss.
Previously you could have just take advantage of the long Stability duration to cast this well early, or delay it slightly to cover the mechanic.

How much DPS will ANet allow this build to have?
We don't know. And now it's DPS is very closely tied to the DPS build because they're doing nearly the exact same thing.
This has never happened to Firebrand, trust me.

tl;dr It's dangerous to read all that up there! Skip to here!

Condition Daredevil

Unchanged by Impairing Daggers cooldown reduction

Power Daredevil

Buffed to ~38.6 if you do the old rotation.
Buffed to 40.2 if you do the new degenerate 1a 1b 2 1a 1b 2 rotation that interrupts our auto chain.
Still screwed by all the usual stuff.
Mag Bomb damage normalized. Cool. Still amazing utility on that skill.

Boon Thief

Dead. Deadeye killed it.

Power Dagger Deadeye

Much easier to play. Splashes some cute boons onto its subgroup, at random. Have to see if Shadow Flare is still worth using. Hopefully, right?

Power Rifle Deadeye

Silent Scope uses Shadow Flare, I hope that's still worth using.
No need to flank with Premeditation Rifle is nice. Swapping Impact to an Accuracy sigil (or not doing that, and losing crit chance) was ~1,200 DPS loss, so that's avoided. I don't mind losing flanking here that much because Flanking wasn't make-or-break adrenaline pumping like dagger. It was just a boring loss.

Quickness Deadeye

I hope you like pushing 5 and 1 a whole lot because that's almost all this is. Also pushing cantrips for F2 charges to provide quickness.
It will play okay, but pretttttttttty similar to utility-spam builds that people hate, with the added bonus of casting TWO skills for every application of quickness.
You can tune this to your liking BUT

IF YOU DON'T KNOW HOW MANY WAYS THIS GAME'S ENEMIES CAN APPLY REVEALED TO YOU THEN YOU'RE IN FOR A TREAT WHEN YOU PICK UP QUICKNESS DEADEYE NEXT PATCH :D

It won't really prevent you from applying quickness but it will tank your DPS and fracture your soul.
One of us. One of us!
This is getting no changes, by the way. It'd be a huge amount of effort from the studio's programmers for one elite spec, for one profession, largely in one game mode (instanced PvE), with a small player base.
Probably just not happening. Not a question of "want to", it's a question of resource management AND doing this right.
Remember stealth-tanking Old Lion's Court? Because they didn't apply Revealed, then they only applied Revealed once and Deadeye just Shadow Melded out of it?

DPS Specter

Buffed by Second Opinion, dubiously buffed by targeting allies with the auto chain.
You can still run Consume Shadows for team healing/barrier.

Alacrity Specter

I don't know. Presumably the shroud skills will allow us to provide at least 50% uptime with a non-degenerate rotation (one that doesn't have us spending all our time in shroud). Said degenerate rotation is naturally policed by the fact our shroud absorbs incoming damage.
Will it run Consume Shadows? Not for optimal damage anymore.

Alac Share Specter

Just change your grandmaster from Strength of Shadows to Shadestep and do the normal rotation. Should do at least 50% uptime, unless Alac specter is just nonviable and can't maintain Alacrity.

First Chapter Here
Previous Chapter Here
My other story, Going Native Here
Hey look, a chapter released in a somewhat reasonable timeframe! As always, thank you for reading and let me know what you think!
*****
Faye hadn’t noticed right away that Meechie missed her regular stop. The pair had been standing in relative silence, Faye’s thoughts drifting off to debate whether or not she would go to the next movie night at the Library, and it was several stops before she realized that she hadn’t said goodbye to the Rakiri. It was in a bit of a brain fog that Faye half-turned, figuring she should hurry and say it now before Meechie got too far away, but instead she jerked her head to find the brown-furred woman staring directly at her.
“I am still here,” Meechie said quietly, a small smile causing the fur on her cheeks to bristle.
“You are,” Faye agreed. “I thought I missed seeing you off.”
“I am accompanying you to the library,” the young woman declared. Faye tried not to read too much into vocal cues, especially when she had little-to-no experience with the species in question, but there still seemed to be something nervous in Meechie’s voice. Nervous and pleading.
“I don’t need a bodyguard,” Faye said cautiously. “And I definitely don’t need someone making a decision like that for me.”
That seemed to strike a nerve. Meechie slunk back as if hit, causing some grumbles from the other passengers. The Rakiri took a moment to smooth out the fur on her face with one hand before replying.
“I did not express myself well. I wished to visit a library after work, and as you work at one I thought it would be nice to travel alongside you.” Meechie’s eyes lowered. “I should not have presumed.”
As if on cue, the bus slowed to its next stop and Meechie moved to leave. It would put the furry young woman at a corporate business park near absolutely nothing of interest. Faye shot out a hand and grabbed Meechie by the shoulder. The Rakiri froze mid-step as if turned to stone.
“Don’t!” She tugged gently and Meechie shifted back to Faye’s side. “No need to run off. Sorry. I shouldn’t have jumped to conclusions.”
“I…” Meechie seemed to be glancing everywhere except at Faye. “It’s alright?”
God damn was this poor girl shy. “Yes, you can ride to the library with me. I just wish you had mentioned it earlier; we don’t have a lot of time to talk shop now.” Faye considered Meechie again, clothes that looked brand new and not a speck of grease to be seen. “Is that why you got all dressed up?”
Meechie nodded, still keeping her eyes somewhere to the left of Faye’s face. “I normally go straight home, but it wouldn’t do to soil any of the books.”
“The books and I both appreciate it.” That earned Faye a smile, at least. “What are you looking for? I didn’t take you for much of a reader.”
“I like adventure stories,” Meechie replied.
“Hmm…” Faye tapped a fingertip to her lips as she thought. “Historical? Big battles?”
“The fighting isn’t what’s important.” Meechie stopped, eyes drawn to the motion of Faye’s finger, and she self-consciously brought her hands back down to her sides. “It is more about the people the hero meets on his travels.”
His travels?
The pronoun threw Faye for a bit of a loop; she was so used to hearing the feminine form used as the general that it stood out. It only took a moment for her to understand. Faye grinned.
“Romantic stories?” She asked the question in a faux whisper, slightly teasing, and Meechie immediately went wide-eyed. Her freshly-cleaned fur puffed up in what could only be panic. Faye reached over and gave Meechie a couple quick pats on the shoulder before leaning in.
“Don’t worry, your secret is safe with me.”
—
“...should have what you’re looking for. I’m going to be upstairs at Archives, but the help desk can find what you’re looking for if you get lost. And remember, no judgment.”
Mahnti glanced across the lobby more out of instinct than anything else. Hearing Faye’s voice simply drew his attention, especially considering he didn’t think her shift had started yet. His eyes quickly picked her out as Faye turned away from the entrance and towards the hall that led towards the employee lounge. He also took note of who she had been talking to.
Rakiri weren’t uncommon in University City, but the way this one stood in place, staring at Faye’s back with an unnerving intensity, was setting off alarms all down Mahnti’s rather sizeable spine. He began to make his way on an intercept course towards Faye, trying to imprint the furry girl’s look into his memory just in case. Brand new clothing, still showing the creases of packaging. Not quite the right fit for the woman’s frame, and she moved like she was profoundly uncomfortable in them. Dark brown fur that seemed to puff up as she stared at Faye, then flattened as she noticed Mahnti watching her.
The Senthe flared his hood slightly, emphasizing his size instinctively as he narrowed his eyes. The Rakiri stared at him unblinking for a moment, then turned and wandered off towards the main stacks. It only took another moment for him to catch up to Faye.
“Who was that?”
Faye jerked slightly, then stopped and turned with a small smile decorating her lips. “Good morning to you too.”
“Yeah, yeah, good morning and all that. Was that your bus Rakiri?”
Faye nodded, the smile fading as she picked up on Mahnti’s unease. “Yeah. Why, do you know her?”
“No, nothing like that.” Mahnti sighed. He didn’t want to cause problems, but he also had some serious bad vibes going. “She was just standing there staring at you. It was pretty creepy.”
“Yeah, I’ve noticed her doing that a lot. I think it might be a Rakiri thing? Meechie seems to have latched on for whatever reason.” Faye shrugged. “I don’t think she has any friends.”
“I’m not surprised if that’s her way of making them. She seriously looked like she was about to attack you or something.”
“Doesn’t know anybody, trying to figure out how to socialize with people…” Faye shrugged again, adding a lopsided smile. “I can relate. She seems harmless enough, even helped protect me the other day.”
Mahnti slumped a little. “I suppose. I just… be careful, okay? I don’t want to have to frame another dent in a wall.”
He also didn’t want to have to worry about Faye bleeding out in some dark corner somewhere. She could outrun a Shil, but a Rakiri with ill intentions would be a far more dangerous proposition.
“After what happened before, I’m not taking chances.” Faye patted the side of her purse conspiratorially and Mahnti could see the outline of a cylinder. It seemed to be a fair bit larger than the grinshaw spray he carried in a vest pocket, but that could have just been a trick of the bag it was in. Regardless, he felt a little better knowing she had something. It wasn’t until he saw the fear she was tucking down behind her smile that he suddenly realized just how vulnerable Faye must feel.
She was smaller and weaker than a Shil’vati, easy to pick out of a crowd and easier to pick on, and with the way she dressed and styled herself Faye really was priming the pump for trouble. A random attack at her place of work had nearly killed her and, less than a week later, here she was trying to take it in stride. All while knowing that the chance of it happening again was approaching certainty.
“Come on,” Mahnti said quietly. He took one of Faye’s hands and pulled her deeper into the hallway, away from prying eyes and towards the break room. He almost told her that she was safe here, but that was a lie. Nowhere was safe if you stood out, and he knew that better than anyone.
–
Ib’aest Jamia, chronic layabout and day manager at the Jamia Library, hoped he didn’t look too guilty when Faye’s face poked through his office doorway and interrupted the scandal rag he was reading on his pad. He slipped his pad face-down into his desk drawer in a single smooth motion and slapped on his second-best friendly but not flirtatious smile.
“Hey Ibby.” Faye seemed suddenly nervous herself, glancing around the room as if to ensure that it was just him in his office. “Can I talk to you for a minute?”
“Is it work related?” Faye shook her head in the negative. “Then of course! Come on in and shut the door.”
Faye followed his lead, latching the door and stepping gracefully to the chair he indicated on the other side of his desk. It was odd, watching the way she moved. Too graceful for most women he knew, but still nervous. Faye sometimes seemed to approach the world as if everything was made of glass. Or perhaps that she was.
Ibby looked the girl up and down, trying for a “kind older friend” vibe. The Human was dressed simply in one of the outfits she seemed to have a knack for throwing together. He knew he had seen at least some of it before, the tights and the skirt at least, but the overall effect was new to him. She struck such an odd balance, clearly a woman but throwing off such a distractingly masculine vibe. In this one person Ibby had a real empirical example of the strange dichotomy that made Humanity so interesting. That said, there was really only one reason for a young woman to ask to speak to an older man in private. At least, only one he figured Faye would be up for.
“Boy troubles?”
Faye blinked at Ibby, confused for a moment. “Kind of, yeah. I guess you could call it that.”
Ibby ran through the list in his head. Mahnti was the obvious first choice, but the way that pair seemed to be getting along he didn’t think there would be any trouble he’d have to intervene with. Besides, the Senthe had said they weren’t doing the perpendicular poke. At least not yet. Faye also knew Tevor, but Ibby had yet to see anyone aside from Sade who could pull that poor kid out of his shell. Maybe Iora over in Digital Media. Did Faye even know Iora?
“Have you ever been to any fancy dress parties?”
Ibby’s racing mind slammed into a drift, changed gears, and nearly ran headlong into the answer. “You’re going on a date with that reporter!”
“It’s NOT a date. I have gone to great lengths to make that clear to both of us.” Faye’s voice was firm. The girl was apparently a better liar than Ibby thought. “He invited me out to go see a play being performed in English at a fancy theater.” Faye pulled out her pad and showed Ibby a copy of the playbill.
“Ooh, the Icosahedral Garden. That’s a great venue.” Ibby considered. “I assume he’s dragging you out to dinner first?”
“I guess? I didn’t really think that far ahead. I just realized that I have no idea what’s culturally acceptable to wear to an event like this.” Faye blushed prettily. “I don’t want to show up in a ball gown and have it turn out to be more of a spikes and corpse paint thing.”
“I… what?”
“Nevermind. Just making a joke.” Faye shrugged, eyes drooping as her expression soured. “It seems like I make a scene no matter where I go. It would be nice to blend in for a change.”
Fat chance of that, Ibby thought. Still, he could be of some help. “What would you say to another shopping excursion? I wouldn’t mind helping you out.”
Faye nodded, relief washing over her. “I would appreciate that. I have an errand to run tonight and plans for tomorrow, but how about the day after? I’m free all day and that will still give me plenty of time before the show.”
“It’s a…” Don’t say date, you idiot. Poor girl is nervous enough as it is. “..plan. Truth be told, it’ll be nice to show you the sights properly. Most of your new friends seem to be more of the indoor sort.”
Faye snorted back a laugh. “Ain’t that the truth.”
–
…Really?
Faye tilted her head to one side just to give her eyeroll a running start. The sign hanging above the shop door was written in a rounded style made to emulate the shape of English letters despite being Shil’vati script. Through the window she could see an assortment of Human snacks, assorted tchotchkes that somehow made her feel victimized on behalf of every race and culture involved, and an embarrassingly large amount of soft-core pornography.
"Chad Nova’s Human Emporium" was probably the single cringiest store that Faye had ever seen, and she distinctly remembered hanging out at the mall back when you could get jeans with pockets big enough to hold a CD player. It didn’t help that, while Faye was standing in the mall concourse staring at the store, the clerk inside was staring right back. That girl seemed to consider blinking an afterthought.
After a moment to square her shoulders and pat the side pocket on her purse reassuringly, Faye entered the store. It was a riot of mismatched goods, poorly made display swords and replica firearms tucked alongside “authentic” Polynesian nose flutes and decks of playing cards. After accidentally locking eyes with what she was fairly certain was an Abraham Lincoln body pillow, she decided to simply accept that this was what her species boiled down to.
“Can I help you, miss?” The voice was high and cracked around the edges. Faye turned to look at the clerk, a Shil’vati girl barely out of school with a face still lightly dusted with acne. The girl seemed to be about ten seconds from exploding in excitement.
“Actually, yeah. I was wondering if you do special orders.” Faye pulled out her pad and started tapping at the screen. “I brought some sundries when I moved out here and I don't know what I’m going to do when I run out.”
“Moved, like from Earth?” Make it five seconds.
“Yes, and to answer your next question, yes, I’m a Human. Nobody decided to bleach a Helkam or anything like that.”
Four… three… two…
The Shil girl turned away and ran to the back of the store, sliding to a stop in front of a rather tacky looking beaded curtain hanging next to an “Employees Only” sign. She shoved her head through the beads.
“MOOOOOOOOOOM!!! HUMAN!!”
Faye took a moment to collect herself. She glanced around, cataloging the strange array of goods. There were some things that clearly fell into similar themes, like the large snack section or the graphic novels (emphasis on graphic), but much of the place was simply a cacophony of crap. She noticed a stuffed doll of the Statue of Liberty fallen over into a container of brightly colored, thumb-sized plastic crucifixes. All the little Jesuses seemed to be staring in mute, cross-eyed horror at the plushie green giant.
“Oh! It’s you!”
Faye turned away from the plastic Jesusai and saw that the young Shil’vati clerk was now accompanied by another woman. Definitely not old enough to be the clerk’s biological mom, but with how things tended to go with Shil families and how long lifespans could get it wasn’t the most surprising. If the clerk was a Human seventeen, she’d put this new one at twenty three or twenty four.
“Yeah, it’s me,” Faye replied to the stranger with a shrug.
“We saw you on the news, but…” the young woman trailed off, her black and gold eyes focused on the still-fading bruises on Faye’s face.
“Lost a fight,” she said curtly. Anything to move this along. “Some friends of mine recommended this place to get Human snacks, and I figured if you’re getting regular imports you might be able to get me some other stuff.”
“..Ah. Oh! Yes!” The woman blinked, then looked at her daughter. “Can you go grab my order book?” Turning back to Faye, she continued, “What sort of things did you need? We have quite a collection here.”
“You certainly do.” Faye tried to focus on the woman, but her eyes kept getting drawn off to the side. An anime-style wall scroll of a mostly-naked, hugely muscled brown-skinned man was staring at her, and she couldn’t place who it was supposed to be. Bob Sapp maybe?
“Mostly I was thinking about makeup, maybe some comfort food. Stuff you probably don’t stock but I can’t afford to import on my own.”
The young woman nodded, her dark hair bouncing. “I’m sure we can work something out. You’re lucky; most Human stores are part of a chain, but we’re independent. We’re not confined to ordering from just one catalog.”
As if she was just waiting for her cue, the Shil kid arrived and plopped an oversized binder into her mom’s open arms. She placed it on a table and flipped it open with a thump.
It was like someone tried to print the Internet. The woman quickly fingered her way through hard-copy recreations of digital storefronts while Faye groaned inwardly. She liked paper more than most but this just seemed so awkward. An alien luddite.
“My brother-in-law’s cousin-in-law works on Earth at one of those new superconductor factories. They ship a lot of materials here, so I was able to negotiate a good deal to take up their extra mass allotment for cheap.” The woman stopped on a page, then pointed. “Something like this?”
Faye leaned over the book and looked. It was the digital storefront of one of those corner store and pharmacy chains that sells makeup on top of everything else. Not exactly top of the line, but better than the dollar store.
“Perfect.” Faye started noting individual things she’d like and the woman dutifully started marking things down on a scrap of paper. The big items on Faye’s shopping list were more foundation and concealer, but she picked out some blush, lipstick, and eyeliner pencils too; she was leery about trusting Shil makeup in general. It was hard enough to find brands that didn’t make her skin break out into an oily mess without getting alien biochemistry involved.
“We can order whatever you like, but the fewer stores you have to pick from the better. I would hate for our buyer to get pissy because she has to run too many errands on the hot guy planet.” The clerk paused for an eye roll. “Also, keep in mind that these prices aren’t what you’ll pay; there will be an additional convenience fee.”
Faye nodded. “Of course. What are you thinking?”
“Hmm…” The woman looked Faye up and down in a way that suddenly made her feel a lot smaller and more vulnerable. While this stranger wasn’t particularly tall for a Shil, that still made for a five or six inch height difference. “You are pretty cute…”
“Dad said no more cute discounts!” Faye’s attention was drawn to the younger girl, who had been watching the whole exchange from a few steps back. The darkening purple blush on her face matched Faye’s own red one.
“You’re no fun!” The Shil mock glared at her (step?)daughter, then turned back to Faye. “Seriously, though, as long as the mass and volume are small the cost to get this sort of thing here isn’t too bad. Say twenty percent. It'll be more if you want anything big or our buyer has to go to a specialty store, but we can do that too. It will still be a lot cheaper than trying to import anything yourself.”
“Twenty percent isn’t bad.” It was a great deal, honestly. Faye doubted they’d be doing much more than breaking even on her little orders. She closed her eyes for a second, clearing her mind. She could feel the spray canister in her bag, pressing against the inside of her arm. Its presence was reassuring. “Can I add an absolutely no flirting policy to our agreement?”
The woman nodded, suddenly looking abashed. “Sorry, I forgot Human women aren’t normally into other girls. I didn’t mean to upset you.”
Whether or not Faye was into girls was irrelevant, but she wasn’t about to get into an argument about it. Instead, she turned a few pages back and forth, adding a few more odds and ends to the list that she hadn’t been able to find in University City. Much of the list consisted of condiments and seasonings that might help make the Shil instant meals Faye had been purchasing a little more palatable.
By the time they were done, Faye had an order totaling a couple hundred credits and a promise that she would have her goods in three to four weeks. Before she left she made a point of stocking up on junk food and picked up a few English-language graphic novels that looked interesting. She rounded out the visit with a couple decks of playing cards. Tomorrow was game night, after all. She should be at least somewhat prepared.
****
Previous Next
This is a fanfic that takes place in the “Between Worlds” universe (aka Sexy Space Babes), created and owned by u/BlueFishcake. No ownership of the settings or core concepts is expressed or implied by myself.
This is for fun. Can’t you just have fun?

Hi, I've got an honest question. "Am I enough"? It sounds like a question that belongs in "Am I the Asshole" or "Forever Alone" But I'm neither an Incel, nor a Virgin. I know I'm not "Forever Alone"... but sometimes a string of short relationships with a long romantic slump between each relationship, can make it seem like I'm Forever Alone.
So, that's kind of where I'm at. About a year ago, I was dumped. It was a 2 year relationship. It was the longest and most serious relationship I've had, and I still have not gotten over it emotionally. I feel like I'm at a personal existential crossroads. I liked myself, and was content before the breakup, and before this other person came into my life... but now I'm second guessing my lovability. I'm questioning if I should just look for someone that accepts me as I am, Or if I should go against what makes my life comfortable, and livable, in order to fit the mold that my Ex would prefer that I fit into. I'm refraining from posting this in the Breakups subreddit, because I'm not looking for someone to be my cheerleader and tell me everything's going to be okay. I want to know, from others, that are alone, and are looking for relationships... Am I enough for anyone?, as I am? Or do I need to become someone else in order to appeal to a larger pool of individuals?
So I'm going to give a TLDR; version of my pros and cons. Then I'll expand upon those, and you all can tell me if you think any reasonable person could love me as I am... or if I need to cave to my ex's demands in order to win her... or someone like her [because I really liked her, and want someone just like her, but I'm very resistant to the idea that it's okay to butter someone up, and then write up a list of qualities that your perfect partner would exhibit... and try to force someone to be that ideal person under threat of loneliness].
CONS: Divorced in 2014. Don't have kids, don't want kids, had a vasectomy to insure I don't have kids. Don't want to live with a significant other, and do not want to get married.(+) I am 5'10 and I maintain a weight between 165lbs and 190lbs. I do not exercise or pay much attention to my diet until I start to get closer to 200lbs.(+) I do not cook for myself.(+) I enjoy P0rn before bedtime(+) I am an insomniac that used to take prescriptions for sleep, but since legalization, I now use weed for that.(+) I live with roommates. I plan on buying a house someday, but I'm taking one of my roommates with me.(+) I am not poor, but I'm also not so wealthy that I can just throw money at any hardship that comes up without looking at my budget.(+) I have had many hobbies and interests, but as I grow older, I have less time and energy to put towards them. I also have less interest in them.(+) I don't like watching sports or talking about them. I do own a Gaming PC/VR and a bunch of different Consoles, but I don't play them often unless I have someone to play them with.
Pros: I'm very Kind, Patient, and Slow to anger. I'm very honest (but not in the "Don't like what I have to say? I'm just being honest" way that some people consider to be honest. I'm honest in the sense that I loath the act of lying, and I learned at a very young age that I'm just not good at it, so I just don't deal in dishonesty, and I don't get a long with dishonest or disingenuous people). I'm a very chill and "go with the flow" kind of person. One positive thing my ex did acknowledge that they appreciated about me, is that I am "Like a human anti-anxiety pill". I have a calming effect on those around me. I have a good sense of humor, that makes use of puns, is referential, spontaneous, and adaptive to those I'm around. I am a left-leaning democratic socialist, but I'm not "too woke to take a joke". I do not road-rage, nor drive like a maniac. I do not hold grudges, and I am not vindictive. I always prefer to forgive, and forget... or in the most extreme cases of slight against me... I prefer to remove myself from the situation. I also know when I am not needed nor wanted. I have no interest in stalking or bread crumbing someone that has dumped me. I'm not a jealous person. I don't pursue flakey, disloyal, untrustworthy people... and I'm not avoidant when it comes to confrontation... so if I'm with you, it's because you've earned my trust, and someone would have to be doing things that are pretty Sus in order to trigger my unfaithfulness Spidey Senses. [I'm not going to tell you to ditch all your guy friends... and I'm not going to get upset if you mention an Ex. I will get perturbed if I have to be constantly compared to an ex though. I wouldn't consider that jealousy... it's more like "I'm not that person, I am me, please don't bring baggage from your past, into the present"].
I'm a very cuddly person [with my partners]. My love language, in order of importance: Physical Touch (Giving and Receiving: Cuddles, Hugs, Head Scratches, Back Rubs, Sex) Quality Time Spent together (It's tough to engage in physical touch without Quality time) Words of Affirmation (I miss telling my partner that she's the best, she's my favorite etc... and hearing the same in return. These are, of course, earned words of praise. I would not say them if they weren't true. It may take a long time before I am comfortable enough to say them with the satisfaction that I'm being 100% honest).
I enjoy watching movies/tv and listening to music with my partner. I enjoy night drives to nowhere in particular. I enjoy musical events. I enjoy amusement parks, museums, zoos, going to the movies, grabbing a meal. I used to make music, and I'm contemplating getting back into that. (I do own a bunch of Synthesizers, Pedals, an Electric Guitar, and a Bass) I ride Motorcycles. I make silly sound fx with my mouth. I make silly voices and I do impressions.
Okay, so that' the Pros and Cons. I didn't go into musical/movie/tv tastes... but I have a pretty eclectic DVD/CD/VHS/Vinyl Collection as well.
Let's expand upon the footnotes I had up above:
Aversion to Marriage and Co-habitation: (I'm not afraid of commitment, nor monogamy, I just go between cycles of introversion and extroversion, and when I'm in my introverted headspace... I cannot live in the same house as my significant other, and I am of the opinion that there's no reason for two people to get married if they're not going to have kids or move in with eachother).
Living situation: Like I said. I currently live with roommates, in a house. One of the roommates is my best friend, and I've roomed with him before. My plan is for the two of us to take advantage of the cheap rent we currently enjoy until we've saved enough to get a place of her own. The only reason I mention this, is that one of the things my ex wants [in addition to me not owning a dog], it to live in my own place... without roommates. I almost lost my best-friend and roommate for good when I got married [and then divorced] I finally have him as a roommate again and It's basically a deal breaker for me... if I can't let him rent a room in my new place when I buy my own house. I'm never getting married... and my Significant other isn't moving in with me... so it's none of their business who I rent rooms in my house too [as long as it's not some horny party-girl]
Fitness: I'm no stranger to Keto, I'm no stranger to the Gym. I just don't bother with strict diet/exercise regiments unless I hit that 195lb mark and I'm looking to get back down to 165-175. (my ex would prefer I goto the gym regularly, because I'm an investment, and she's convinced I'm going to die if I'm not as strict about my health as she is).
Aversion to Cooking: I am not opposed to the thought of following recipes in order to prepare a romantic meal for myself and my partner... but the bottom line is, that I am not a food person, and it's no ones business what/how I eat when my partner isn't there to enjoy the fruits of my kitchen. If I could take a pill that would quell my hunger & provide all the necessary nutrients to support my health, my sleep pattern, and my mental acuity... I would totally opt for that pill. My ex is convinced that all adults should be cooking most of their meals at home, because it saves money, and is healthier. I call bullshit on this. Cooking for one, is not as economical as cooking for 2 or more people. I also work a job with a 45-60 minute commute each way... and when I get to the office... I'm usually dispatched all over the city. It's impractical for me to prepare meals to bring to work cold. I might not be anywhere near the work fridge when hunger strikes (and when Hunger strikes, I need to eat... immediately, because I get headaches and become faint... due to a combination of Long-Covid, Chronic Fatigue, and weariness from my struggles with insomnia). If I cooked all my own food and went to the GYM as often as she would prefer. I'd be losing an hour to the GYM each weekday, and an hour in meal prep [most likely while I'm hungry to the point of headache and brainfog]... and an hour and 1/2 to my commute. I need those two hours a day for rest and relaxation, and if I ever hope to get back into music/sound production... I'm going to want those two hours.
Weed: I wouldn't say I'm a daily weed user, but I am a nightly weed user. I don't identify as a hippy/stoner, nor do I resonate with the stoner lifestyle. For me, it's medicine and I treat it as such. I do not use it recreationally. I only use it at bedtime).
P0rn Consumption: This has been a major sticking point in every relationship I've had. My previous partner was the 1st person I've been with that didn't initially judge me based on my p0rn consumption. In fact, she was a consumer of it as well, and we would sometimes watch it together, and trade our favorite videos and NSFW memes. It was really nice to be able to share those kinds of things with a partner. I never hid my p0rn use from previous partners... but it was a situation where I mentioned it at the start... they weren't into it... I didn't mention it again... and then several months into the relationship my partners would always get restless and start looking for things about me that they could pick apart and dismantle and once they had nothing else to criticize me about... they would come for the p0rn. In some cases I would Quit consuming, and things would go on a bit longer until the relationship naturally ran its course... and in other cases I would Quit consuming... and my partner would constantly shame me and accuse me of consuming it when I had not... (and then they would run away with someone else... and expose themselves as a total hypocrite like my Ex-wife did).
In my most recent relationship, everything was amazing for 2 years. No shaming, No judgement, mutual enjoyment of eachother's company. We shared everything with each other including kinks and p0rn and movies, and music and hope and dreams. I moved 2.5 hours away from friends and family to live closer to her because it was a long-distance relationship. Then she leaves for a summer internship and when she comes back... she dumps me. She asks for "No contact" so the two of us can emotionally move-on without breadcrumbing eachother. I'm not a desperate stalker, so I obliged. 4 months pass, and I no longer want to live in that City away from my friends and family. I break "no contact" when I see her at the Gym, because I want her to know that I'm leaving town for good... and if the thought of running into me in public has ever given her pause about leaving the house and hanging out around town... she no longer needs to worry because I won't be living in that city any more. This breach of "no contact" ends in a weekend fling between the two of us... and then I proceed with my plans to move back. It's when I arrive back in my home town that I get the email from her with all the bulletpoints that she wants in a perfect mate. She basically insinuates that as long as I continue working towards becoming this hypothetical person that she wants... we can see eachother once a month. but... As I'm struggling to give up porn, and develop an exercise routine, and get back into hobbies, and start reading books, and consider cooking for myself... her friendly txt chats and phone calls become less about enjoying the conversation, and less about having movie/TV show watchparties on the internet... and more about her interrogating me about "What did you do today to improve yourself... what are you doing in your everyday life that indicates you're serious about continuous growth?" And I really started to resent this lifestyle that she wants me to live as a pre-requisite to someday being able to call her my Girlfriend again. Eventually she told me "I'm sick of playing Barb the Builder with you" and my response is "I'm not broken, I never asked you to fix me. Do a cost-benefit analysis of our relationship... if I don't bring you Joy anymore... or if that Joy is outweighed by this obsession with molding me into your Fantasy man... then maybe we should actually go our separate ways." And that's what we did. I haven't talked to her since January... And then... a few weeks ago I get drunken texts from her. She still misses me. She still thinks about me just as much as I think about her. She drunkenly says several times "I wish you would just give up porn so we can be together"... And part of me has been so lonely, for so many months... that I'm honestly considering Quitting p0rn... and then breaking no contact to ask "Remember when you drunkenly said you wanted to buy a house near me, in Phoenix... and move... and you wished I would "just Quit Porn so we could be together???" Is that all it will take to get you back?... or Am I going to have to tick off all the other boxes on your "Ideal man" checklist?
It's been 9 days without porn at this point. I'm trying to see if it's really true that the urge to view p0rn goes away after 3 weeks. But part of me wonders if I should just try my best to emotionally move-on... and find someone that's not an over-achiever, and accepts me as I am. I like being a chill person. I like being a calming influence. I hate taking life so seriously. I don't want to be like her. But I do want to be with her... or with someone that treats me the way she used to before she got it in her head that I'm a broken person that needs to be fixed.
What do I do? Am I an unlovable unambitious p0rn addicted loser who is undeserving of love until I fix myself?... Or am I okay the way I am, and I should just move-on and hold-out for someone that appreciates me just the way I am? Do you know anyone that could love someone like me, as I am now?

Time-Limited Events

STAR RECORD (festoチャレンジ)
Game to play: jubeat Ave.
Date: 05/24/2023 - 06/13/2023
Mechanic: Play a minimum of 2 credits.
Explanation: By finishing 1 credit, you light up a star. At the start of your next credit, if there’s a lit up star, you unlock 1 specific song. If you already have that song, you get BONUS TUNE GAUGE instead.
Reward:

Stars	Song
1	Come to Life
2	Brawl
3	Floating Eternity
4	splash!
5	Fireball
6	VIKING SHIP
7	December in Strasbourg
8	Noob実況24時!
9	Ghost Clock
10	XENOViA
11	茶渋シンドローム
12	世界の果てに約束の凱歌を -jubeat edition-
13	Boomy and The Boost
14	Catch Me
15	ピアノ独奏無言歌 "灰燼"
16	鋳鉄の檻
17	チュッチュ♪マチュピチュ
18	Globe Glitter
19	DUAL STRIKER
20	Hero Revealed

アリーナキューブ (Arena Cube) Rewards
Game to play: beatmania IIDX 30 RESIDENT
Date: 06/01/2023 - 06/14/2023
Mechanic: Access ARENA Mode, and keep playing. Local Matching does not count.
Explanation: After every game played in ARENA Mode, you can gain 7, 6, 5 or 4 Arena Cubes depending on your placing. You get 1 more Arena Cube for getting 1st place on 1 of the opponent’s selected songs and/or if in the lowest class against other players.
Rewards:

Song	Genre	Arena cubes
Element of SPADA†	HEALING POP	60
four pieces of heaven†	JUNGLE	120
	After every 25(?) more cubes, you can unlock the following in order.
fun	FUNK SHUFFLE
龍王の霊廟(Mausoleum Of The Primal Dragon)†	RETROSPECTIVE EPIC MUSIC
Hydrogen Blueback†	TECH DANCE
Burning Flame†	HYPER TECHNO
THE SHINING POLARIS(kors k mix)	UK HARD CORE
Elektrick U-Phoria†	UK HARDCORE

COURSE TRIAL A3 (GALAXY)
Game to play: DanceDanceRevolution A3
Date: 05/18/2023 - 06/14/2023
Mechanic: Select from COURSE TRIAL folder, by clearing once, unlocks the new song. After the period, it will be moved to regular NONSTOP folder where you unlock it by clearing multiple times filling up a gauge.
Reward: Unlocks the song 「羊皮紙の上の銀河」
グレイスからの挑戦状!!
Game to play: SDVXコナステ
Date: 05/15/2023 - 06/14/2023
Mechanic: Play the song on SDVXコナステ.
Reward: Unlocks the song 「Reverenced Flower」 on SDVX EXCEED GEAR
ゲージアンロックイベント
Game to play: DANCE aROUND
Mechanics: ???
第6弾 Reprint
Date: 05/31/2023 - 06/18/2023
Reward: Unlocks the songs 「スターチューン」, 「1-2-3 Jump![MASTER]」and 「さくらさくら」
DANCERUSH STARDOM 炎のDANCE合宿～2023SPRING～
Game to play: DANCERUSH STARDOM
Date: 05/24/2023 - 06/18/2023
Mechanics: Finish courses to unlock songs and stars.
Explanation: Courses can be accessed by pressing 0. Players can choose any course but need to finish that course to select another. After finishing all 3 courses, 「最終仕上げ」 course can now be selected.

Step	Song/Item	Mission A	Mission B
	ランニングマン合宿コース	(Running man Course)
1	Midland Mainline RUNNING MAN EDITION	Clear 「ランニングマンレッスン応用編」 (Advanced running man lesson)	Score 100 or more total points
2	★ x5	Clear 「ランニングマンレッスン 炎の特訓編」 (Running man lesson fire training)	Obtain a total of 200 or more PERFECTs
3	★ x10	Clear 1 BEMANI song	Clear a song with 80 or more points
4	Trash RUNNING MAN EDITION	Clear 2 songs with 30 or less BADs	Clear 「Midland Mainline RUNNING MAN EDITION」 with 80.000 or more points
	Tステップ合宿コース	(T step Course)
1	Don't Be Afraid T STEP EDITION	Clear 「Tステップレッスン応用編」 (Advanced T step lesson)	Score 160 or more total points
2	★ x5	Clear 「Tステップレッスン 炎の特訓編」 (T step lesson fire training)	Obtain a total of 200 or more PERFECTs
3	★ x10	Get 1 EDM song	Clear a song with 80 or more points
4	You Take My Soul T STEP EDITION	Clear 2 songs with 30 or less BADs	Clear 「Don't Be Afraid T STEP EDITION」 with 80.000 or more points
	スポンジボブ合宿コース	(SpongeBob Course)
1	Penguin Morning SPONGEBOB EDITION	Clear 「スポンジボブレッスン」 (Spongebob lesson)	Score 160 or more total points
2	★ x5	Clear 1 LESSON	Obtain a total of 200 or more PERFECTs
3	★ x10	Clear 1 POPS song	Clear a song with 80 or more points
4	Bounce To This T STEP EDITION	Clear 2 songs with 30 or less BADs	Clear 「Penguin Morning SPONGEBOB EDITION」 with 80.000 or more points
	最終仕上げ	(Final Finish)
1	Light of Love	Clear 15 songs with 20 or less BADs	Clear 「about right」 with 85.000 or more points

BEMANI SYMPHONY ピアノソロアレンジ集
Game to play: ノスタルジア Op.3
Date: 05/18/2023 - 06/21/2023
Mechanics: Select 「BEMANI SYMPHONY ピアノソロアレンジ集」 on episode selection screen then select the song to be unlocked.
Explanation: By playing songs, you can gain stardust, depending on the unlockable song’s criteria. Playing on Forte Mode gives an additional stardust. You can unlock a song’s chart after a number of stardust
Rewards:

Song	number of stardust		criteria
海神 (BEMANI SYMPHONY Arr.)	Normal	5	Play Song	3
	Hard	13	Score 750,000 or more	1
	Expert	24	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Real	19	Miss 30 or less times	1
	Total	61	Miss 50 or less times	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
流砂の嵐 (BEMANI SYMPHONY Arr.)	Normal	13	Play Song	3
	Hard	22	Score 750,000 or more	1
	Expert	27	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Real	24	Miss 30 or less times	1
	Total	89	Miss 50 or less times	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
さよなら世界 (BEMANI SYMPHONY Arr.)	Normal	9	Play Song	3
	Hard	19	Score 750,000 or more	1
	Expert	27	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Real	24	Miss 30 or less times	1
	Total	79	Miss 50 or less times	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
リメンバーリメンバー (BEMANI SYMPHONY Arr.)	Normal	13	Play Song	3
	Hard	22	Score 750,000 or more	1
	Expert	27	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Real	24	Miss 30 or less times	1
	Total	86	Miss 50 or less times	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1

熱闘！BEMANIスタジアム
Game to play: ノスタルジア Op.3
Date: 05/11/2023 - 06/21/2023
Mechanics: Select 「熱闘！BEMANIスタジアム」 on episode selection screen then select the song to be unlocked.
Explanation: By playing songs, you can gain stardust, depending on the unlockable song’s criteria. Playing on Forte Mode gives an additional stardust. You can unlock a song’s chart after a number of stardust
Rewards:

Song	number of stardust		criteria
PUNISHER	Normal	15	Play Song	1
	Hard	28	Score 850,000 or more	1
	Expert	32	MISS 30 or less times	1
	Real	22	200 or more justs	1
	Total	97	300 or more max combo	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
Stella Sinistra	Normal	15	Play Song	1
	Hard	28	Score 750,000 or more	1
	Expert	32	MISS 50 or less times	1
	Real	22	200 or more ★just	1
	Total	97	100 or more max combo	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
デッドボヲルdeホームラン	Normal	15	Play Song	1
	Hard	28	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Expert	32	MISS 40 or less times	1
	Real	22	200 or more ★just	1
	Total	97	100 or more max combo	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
轟け！恋のビーンボール！！	Normal	15	Play Song	1
	Hard	28	Score 850,000 or more	1
	Expert	32	MISS 20 or less times	1
	Real	22	200 or more just	1
	Total	97	300 or more max combo	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1

PREMIUM GENERATOR「期間限定コラボ特別弾(前半)」
Game to play: SOUND VOLTEX EXCEED GEAR
Date: 06/08/2023 - 06/22/2023
Info: Limited-time PREMIUM GENERATOR is available
Reward: Unlocks exclusive crew Rem from Re:Zero
Stamp Event
Game to play: DANCERUSH STARDOM
Date: 06/05/2023 - 06/25/2023
Mechanics: Just play and earn 9 stamps
Tips:

• You can only gain up to 3 stamps per day.
• You only gain stamps at the start of the 1st, 3rd and 4th play.

Reward: Unlocks the song 「Let's DANCE aROUND!!」
ARENA STATION
Game to play: SOUND VOLTEX EXCEED GEAR
Date: 06/08/2023 - 06/26/2023
Mechanic: Keep playing. Arena Station is accessible before the game starts
Explanation: Depending on the play type, you gain an amount of Arena Power, which you can then claim for rewards in Arena Station. (Exact values of AP reward still unknown)
Rewards: Navigator, Songs and charts

Reward	number of AP
Live2D Konoha	15000
The Sampling Paradise (P*Light Remix) [XCD]	4000
B.B.K.K.B.K.K. [XCD]	4000
ネトゲ廃人シュプレヒコール [XCD]	2000
Kontrol Line (Valkyrie Model unlockable only)	8000
graduation (Valkyrie Model unlockable only)	8000
Invitation from Mr.C [XCD]	8000
neu BSP style [XCD]	4000
Foolish Hero [XCD]	4000
地球最後の告白を [XCD]	2000
色は匂へど散りぬるを [XCD]	2000

絢爛なるピアノの調べ
Game to play: ノスタルジア Op.3
Date: 06/01/2023 - 06/28/2023
Mechanics: Select 「絢爛なるピアノの調べ」 on episode selection screen then select the song to be unlocked.
Explanation: By playing songs, you can gain stardust, depending on the unlockable song’s criteria. Playing on Forte Mode gives an additional stardust. You can unlock a song’s chart after a number of stardust
Rewards:

Song	number of stardust		criteria
Note d'Azur	Normal	15	Play Song	1
	Hard	28	Score 750,000 or more	1
	Expert	32	Score 850,000 or more	1
	Real	22	Miss 40 or less times	1
	Total	97	200 or more justs	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
nalca	Normal	15	Play Song	1
	Hard	28	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Expert	32	Score 900,000 or more	1
			Miss 30 or less times	1
	Total	75	100 or more justs	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
City of Mirrors	Normal	8	Play Song	1
	Hard	16	Score 750,000 or more	1
	Expert	21	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Real	22	Miss 20 or less times	1
	Total	67	Max combo 100 or more	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
Northern Cross	Normal	12	Play Song	1
	Hard	24	Score 750,000 or more	1
	Expert	33	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Real	30	Miss 20 or less times	1
	Total	99	Max combo 100 or more	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
アクアリウム ブルー	Normal	9	Play Song	1
	Hard	19	Score 750,000 or more	1
	Expert	27	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Real	24	Miss 20 or less times	1
	Total	79	Max combo 100 or more	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
The Dynamics of an Asteroid	Normal	13	Play Song	1
	Hard	22	Score 750,000 or more	1
	Expert	33	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Real	26	Miss 20 or less times	1
	Total	94	Max combo 100 or more	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1

FUZZ-UP Quest
第3弾 PERFECTチャレンジ BEAR CLIMBER
Game to play: ノスタルジア Op.3
Date: 05/31/2023 - 07/02/2023
Mechanic: Reach 1500% Perfect Percentage
Explanation: Each game will check your percentage of getting ‘Perfect’ rating, you can get a maximum of 100% per stage, and this value increases your total.
Reward: Unlocks the song 「The Last Moment」
エピソードを進めようキャンペーン
Game to play: ノスタルジア Op.3
Info: You gain a number more stardust per song play for the following chapters when playing.

Chapter	Date	Stardust
「熱闘！BEMANIスタジアム」	05/11/2023 - 06/21/2023	+4
「BEMANI SYMPHONY ピアノソロアレンジ集」	05/18/2023 - 06/21/2023	+2
「絢爛なるピアノの調べ」	06/01/2023 - 06/28/2023	+4

Classical Masterpieces クラシック ア・ラ・カルト
Game to play: ノスタルジア Op.3
Date: 06/08/2023 - 07/26/2023
Mechanics: Select 「Classical Masterpieces クラシック ア・ラ・カルト」 on episode selection screen then select the song to be unlocked.
Explanation: By playing songs, you can gain stardust, depending on the unlockable song’s criteria. Playing on Forte Mode gives an additional stardust.
Rewards:

Song	number of stardust		Criteria
アルルの女第二組曲よりファランドール	Normal	13	Play Song	1
	Hard	19	Score 700,000 or more	1
	Expert	27	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Real	24	MISS 20 or less times	1
	Total	83	100 or more ★justs	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
アルルの女第二組曲よりメヌエット	Normal	13	Play Song	1
	Hard	19	Score 700,000 or more	1
	Expert	27	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Real	24	MISS 20 or less times	1
	Total	83	100 or more ★justs	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
動物の謝肉祭より第7曲「水族館」	Normal	6	Play Song	1
	Hard	16	Score 700,000 or more	1
	Expert	27	Score 800,000 or more	1
	Real	24	MISS 20 or less times	1
	Total	72	100 or more ★justs	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
ワルキューレの騎行	Normal	13	Play Song	1
	Hard	26	Score 700,000 or more	1
	Expert	33	Score 800,000 or more	1
			MISS 20 or less times	1
	Total	72	100 or more ★justs	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
交響曲第9番"新世界より"第4楽章	Normal	13	Play Song	1
	Hard	19	Score 750,000 or more	1
	Expert	30	Score 800,000 or more	1
			MISS 30 or less times	1
	Total	62	MISS 50 or less times	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1
交響曲第5番第4楽章	Normal	9	Play Song	1
	Hard	19	Score 700,000 or more	1
	Expert	30	Score 850,000 or more	1
			MISS 20 or less times	1
	Total	58	Max combo 300 or more	1
			Play in FORTE Mode	1

Continuous, Oncoming, Monthly, and Weekly Events

Time-Limited (to view with images), Oncoming Events (Dates highlighted in red in Time-Limited Events), Continuous Events. Monthly and Weekly Events (Weekly Ranking, jubeat jboxes) and inactive event templates will be compiled here in this document. Use the outline for ease.

Introduction: The enneagram test helps you understand your character’s core motivations, fears, desires, weaknesses, and strengths. It’s a starting point for exploring their personality and creating more authentic and multi-dimensional characters.
Here’s how the results may look using my character Aurora. Overview
Dominant type 9 The Peacekeeper Auxiliary type 7 The Enthusiast Tertiary type 5 The Investigator Inferior type 2 The Helper
Motivations: Dominant motivation: Maintaining inner peace and harmony Auxiliary motivation: Seeking common ground and avoiding confrontation Tertiary motivation: Understanding and gaining knowledge Inferior motivation: Doing what is right and just
Fears: Dominant fear: Conflict and disharmony Auxiliary fear: Being trapped or limited Tertiary fear: Being incompetent or ignorant
Desires: Dominant desire: Finding common ground and avoiding confrontation Auxiliary desire: Seeking optimism and a sense of adventure Tertiary desire: Analyzing and comprehending the world around them Inferior desire: Finding trustworthy people and systems to rely on
Weaknesses: Dominant weakness: Avoidance of conflict and indecisiveness Auxiliary weakness: Avoidance of negative emotions and discomfort Tertiary weakness: Over-identification with others’ needs and emotions
Strengths: Dominant strength: Ability to see multiple perspectives and find compromise Auxiliary strength: Optimism and a sense of adventure Tertiary strength: Empathy and compassion for others
Breakdown of types
Primary Type 9 (The Peacemaker)
This character’s primary motivation centers around preserving inner peace and cultivating harmony in their surroundings. Their primary fear is rooted in the avoidance of conflict and disharmony, driving them to seek ways to find common ground and steer clear of confrontation. However, their primary weakness lies in their inclination to shy away from conflicts and struggle with making decisions. On a positive note, their character possesses a remarkable strength in their ability to empathize with others and perceive multiple perspectives, allowing them to skillfully navigate situations and find compromises that benefit all parties involved.
Secondary Type: 7 (The Enthusiast)
The secondary fear of Type 7 individuals is centered around feeling trapped or restricted. Their secondary weakness lies in their tendency to avoid negative emotions and discomfort. On the flip side, their secondary strength manifests as optimism and a keen sense of adventure.
Tertiary Type 5 (The Investigator)
This character’s tertiary motivation centers around the desire to understand and gain knowledge. They are driven by a deep curiosity to explore and comprehend the world around them, seeking answers and insights. However, they also harbor a fear of being incompetent or ignorant, which fuels their continuous quest for learning and understanding. Their auxiliary desire is to analyze and dissect information, employing their analytical skills to make sense of complex concepts and phenomena. By focusing on their tertiary position, the character’s motivation, fear, and desire revolve around their thirst for knowledge, their apprehension about lacking competence, and their inclination to scrutinize and comprehend the intricacies of the world.
Inferior Type 2 (The Helper)
The character's inferior position is occupied by Type 2, also known as "The Helper." In this role, their tertiary weakness manifests as an inclination towards over-identification with others' needs and emotions. They may struggle with setting boundaries and prioritizing their own well-being, often putting the needs of others before their own.
On a positive note, their tertiary strength lies in their remarkable capacity for empathy and compassion towards others. They possess a natural ability to understand and resonate with the emotions and experiences of those around them, making them adept at offering support and assistance to those in need.
In summary, the character's inferior type of 2 presents challenges in establishing personal boundaries due to their tendency to over-identify with others' needs and emotions. However, their strength lies in their genuine empathy and compassion, which enables them to provide meaningful support and care to those around them.
Additional Selections:
In addition to the primary, auxiliary, and tertiary types, the character also possesses the following desires and motivations:

• inferior desire: To find trustworthy people and systems to rely on. This desire stems from their recognition of the importance of dependable relationships and reliable structures in their life. They seek out individuals and systems they can trust and depend upon for support and stability.
  
• inferior motivation: To do what is right and just. This motivation reflects the character's strong sense of moral integrity and their drive to uphold fairness and justice in their actions and decisions. They are guided by a deep-rooted belief in doing what is morally right and striving for ethical conduct.
  

These additional selections shed light on the character's inclination to establish trust and rely on trustworthy individuals and systems. Furthermore, their motivation to uphold righteousness and fairness underscores their moral compass and their commitment to making principled choices.
The HEXACO test Introduction: The HEXACO test is an assessment that examines six major dimensions of personality. These dimensions are:

1. Honesty-Humility: Measures sincerity, fairness, and modesty.
2. Emotionality: Assesses sensitivity, sentimentality, and vulnerability.
3. Extraversion: Explores sociability, assertiveness, and energetic behavior.
4. Agreeableness: Evaluates friendliness, compassion, and cooperativeness.
5. Conscientiousness: Measures organization, responsibility, and self-discipline.
6. Openness to Experience: Assesses imagination, intellectual curiosity, and creativity.

By taking the HEXACO test, you can gain insights into your character's personality traits and understand how they relate to these dimensions. It provides a comprehensive understanding of their behavior, motivations, and attitudes towards various aspects of life. Keep in mind that the HEXACO test is a tool to enhance character development and deepen their psychological portrayal.
HEXACO factor scores
Overview
Honesty-Humility:
Positive score: 28/30 0.933 - Sincere, modest, and fair-minded. (5) - Less likely to engage in manipulative or exploitative behavior, and are more likely to be trustworthy and dependable. (5) - Possesses a strong sense of personal ethics and values. (5) - Exhibits a genuine interest in the well-being and success of others. (5) - Tend to be humble and unassuming, and are often respected for their integrity and authenticity. (4) - Demonstrates a high level of personal integrity and moral courage. Ability to consider and prioritize the well-being and values of others when making ethical decisions. (4)
Negative score: 7/30 0.233 - Prone to being overly self-sacrificing or overly trusting, leading to exploitation or manipulation. (5) - Tendency to avoid or evade confrontation, even in situations where it may be necessary. (2)
Emotionality:
Positive score: 22/30 0.733 - Sensitive, empathetic, and expressive. (5) - Shows a deep appreciation for the beauty and intricacies of nature. (5) - Demonstrates emotional intelligence and the ability to regulate and express emotions effectively. (5) - Often attuned to their own emotions and the emotions of others, and are able to connect with others on a deep level. (4) - Displays resilience and adaptability in managing emotional challenges. (3)
Negative score: 6/30 0.2 - May struggle with emotional intensity or difficulty in processing emotions. (3) - Exhibits a tendency to overanalyze or ruminate on negative emotions. (3)
Extraversion:
Positive score: 23/30 0.766 - Displays charisma and the ability to inspire and motivate others. (5) - Demonstrates adaptability and enthusiasm in new social situations. (5) - Outgoing, assertive, and sociable. (4) - Has a talent for building and maintaining broad social networks. (4) - Enjoy being around others and are often the life of the party. (3) - Confident and self-assured, and may be comfortable taking risks and trying new things. (2)
Negative: no selections 0/30 0.0
Agreeableness:
Positive score: 28/30 0.933 - Cooperative, empathetic, and kind. (5) - Good listeners and are able to put themselves in others' shoes. (5) - Displays a genuine interest in understanding and appreciating diverse perspectives. (5) - Exhibits strong empathy and compassion towards others. (5) - Skilled at conflict resolution and may be seen as peacemakers. (4) - Demonstrates diplomacy and tact in difficult interpersonal situations. (4)
Negative: 14/30 0.466 - May avoid conflict to the point of being overly accommodating. (5) - Exhibits difficulty in asserting personal boundaries or standing up for oneself. (5) - Tendency to be overly trusting or gullible, leading to exploitation. (4)
Conscientiousness:
Positive score: 20/30 0.666 - Good at setting and achieving goals, and may have a strong sense of purpose and direction in life. (5) - Displays a strong work ethic and commitment to achieving long-term goals. (5) - Reliable and dependable, and may be seen as hardworking and diligent. (4) - Responsible, organized, and self-disciplined. (3) - Demonstrates a high level of attention to detail and meticulousness. (3)
Negative score: no selection 0/25 0.0
Openness to Experience:
Positive score: 29/35 0.828 -Intellectual Curiosity: Open individuals have a strong desire for intellectual exploration, seeking new knowledge and engaging in intellectual discussions. (5) -Open-Mindedness: They are receptive to new ideas, perspectives, and cultural diversity, showing a willingness to challenge their own beliefs and embrace different viewpoints. (5) -Reflective and Contemplative: Open individuals often engage in introspection, self-reflection, and philosophical thinking. (5) -Appreciation of Art and Beauty: They have a deep appreciation for various forms of art, beauty, and aesthetic experiences. (4) -Adaptability and Flexibility: They are open to change and can quickly adapt to new situations or environments. (4) -Imaginative and Creative: Open individuals often have vivid imaginations and a natural inclination for creative thinking. (3) -Exploration of New Experiences: Open individuals actively seek out new experiences, whether it's traveling to unfamiliar places or trying new activities. (3)
Negative: 13/35 0.371
-Emotional Sensitivity: Open individuals may be more prone to experiencing intense emotions and may be deeply affected by artistic or emotional stimuli. (5) -Overly Permissive: In some cases, openness to experience can lead to being overly permissive or accepting of questionable ideas or behaviors. (4) -Difficulty Focusing: Their broad range of interests and curiosity can sometimes make it challenging to focus on a specific task or area of study. (2) -Restlessness: They may have a constant desire for novelty and change, leading to restlessness or a lack of contentment with their current circumstances. (2)
HEXACO factors breakdown
Here's the description of the factors based on their combined positive and negative percentages:

1. Honesty-Humility (73.3%): Honesty-Humility represents individuals who are sincere, fair-minded, and possess a strong sense of personal ethics (28/30, 93.3%). They demonstrate genuine interest in others' well-being and are respected for their integrity (combined positive score). However, they may be prone to being overly self-sacrificing or overly trusting (7/30, 23.3%), which can lead to exploitation.
   
2. Emotionality (53.3%): Emotionality reflects individuals who are sensitive, empathetic, and expressive (22/30, 73.3%). They appreciate the beauty of nature and have emotional intelligence (combined positive score). However, they may struggle with emotional intensity and rumination (6/30, 20%), leading to difficulties in processing emotions (combined negative score).
   
3. Extraversion (61.3%): Extraversion represents individuals who are charismatic, adaptable, and sociable (23/30, 76.6%). They have a talent for building social networks and enjoy being around others (combined positive score). No negative aspects were selected (0/30, 0%), indicating a predominantly positive expression of extraversion.
   
4. Agreeableness (46.6%): Agreeableness reflects individuals who are cooperative, empathetic, and kind (28/30, 93.3%). They demonstrate a genuine interest in understanding diverse perspectives and resolving conflicts (combined positive score). However, they may avoid conflict, struggle with asserting boundaries, and be overly trusting (14/30, 46.6%), which can lead to exploitation (combined negative score).
   
5. Conscientiousness (66.6%): Conscientiousness represents individuals who set and achieve goals, have a strong work ethic, and are reliable (20/30, 66.6%). They demonstrate responsibility and attention to detail (combined positive score). No negative aspects were selected (0/30, 0%), indicating a predominantly positive expression of conscientiousness.
   
6. Openness to Experience (82.8%): Openness to Experience reflects individuals who possess intellectual curiosity, open-mindedness, and appreciation for art and beauty (29/35, 82.8%). They are adaptable, imaginative, and seek new experiences (combined positive score). However, openness to experience may lead to emotional sensitivity, being overly permissive, difficulty focusing, and restlessness (13/35, 37.1%), indicating a mixed expression of this trait.
   

Using the combined percentages allows for a comprehensive understanding of the factors, considering both their positive and negative aspects. It provides a balanced perspective on the presence and expression of these traits in an individual's personality.
Enneagram and HEXACO Jungian functions total
Extraverted Feeling (Fe): 33 (12 + 21) Introverted Feeling (Fi): 43 (18 + 25) Extraverted Thinking (Te): 20 (6 + 14) Introverted Thinking (Ti): 25 (9 + 16) Extraverted Sensing (Se): 12 (1 + 11) Introverted Sensing (Si): 0 Extraverted Intuition (Ne): 0 Introverted Intuition (Ni): 11 (1 + 10)
Typing Fi>Fe = Fi 43 Ti>Te = Ti 25 Se>si = Se 12 Ni>Ne = Ni 11
Fi 43>Ti 25 = Fi = feeling and introversion Se 12> Ni 11 = sensing
sensing and intuition are perceiving functions = P
Current typing ISFP Meyer Briggs type
Typing compared to test
When comparing the ISFP typing with the enneagram and HEXACO results, we can observe the following:
Enneagram: - Dominant type 9 (The Peacemaker): This aligns with the ISFP's preference for harmony and avoiding conflict. The character's motivation to maintain inner peace and find common ground resonates with the ISFP traits.

• Auxiliary type 7 (The Enthusiast): The character's fear of being trapped or limited, as well as their optimism and sense of adventure, align with the ISFP's auxiliary function of extraverted intuition (Ne), which corresponds to seeking new experiences and possibilities.
  
• Tertiary type 5 (The Investigator): The character's motivation to understand and gain knowledge, as well as the fear of being incompetent or ignorant, resonate with the ISFP's tertiary function of introverted thinking (Ti). This suggests a tendency to analyze and comprehend the world around them.
  
• Inferior type 2 (The Helper): The character's empathy, compassion, and desire to find trustworthy people to rely on align with the ISFP's inferior function of extraverted feeling (Fe), which corresponds to concern for others' needs and emotions.
  

HEXACO: When comparing the HEXACO factor scores, we can see how they align with the ISFP traits. The positive scores in Honesty-Humility, Emotionality, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, and Openness to Experience are in line with the ISFP's values of sincerity, sensitivity, empathy, responsibility, and openness to new ideas. The character's lower negative scores indicate a lower tendency towards greed, anxiety, self-centeredness, and unconventional thinking.
Overall, the ISFP typing, enneagram results, and HEXACO scores provide a comprehensive understanding of the character's personality, highlighting their introversion, sensing, feeling, perceiving preferences, as well as their inclination towards peacekeeping, adventure, knowledge-seeking, and empathy.
Competent character compendium
Introduction: The Competent Character Compendium (CCC) is a test that examines various character traits across different personality factors. The test focuses on six key factors: Narcissism, Machiavellianism, Psychopathy, Critical Parent, Trickster, and Demon.
Overview
Narcissism:
Positive score: 18/35 0.514 -Charisma: the ability to charm and captivate others. (5) -Self-awareness: the ability to understand and reflect on oneself. (4) -Confidence: a belief in one's abilities, worth, and potential. (3) -Self-care: a focus on one's own well-being and happiness. (3) -Self-motivation: a drive to achieve personal success and excellence. (3)
Negative score: 0/35 0.00
0.257
Machiavellianism:
Positive scores: 19/35 0.543 -Adaptability: a skill at navigating complex social and political environments. (4) -Persuasiveness: skillful at influencing and convincing others. (4) -Diplomacy: skillful handling of delicate or sensitive situations. (3) -Resourcefulness: finding creative solutions to problems. (3) -Open-mindedness: being receptive to new ideas and perspectives. (5)
Negative scores: 3/35 0.09 -Tendency to engage in risky behavior without considering the consequences. (3)
0.314
Psychopathy:
Positive scores: 6/35 0.171 -Resilience: a capacity to bounce back from setbacks or challenges. (2) -Emotional resilience: the ability to bounce back from emotional challenges. (1) -Courage: a willingness to face and overcome fear, challenges, or danger. (3)
Negative score: 0/35 0.0
0.09
Critical Parent:
Positive: 18/35 0.514 -Encouragement: providing support and motivation to others. (5) -Accountability: a willingness to take responsibility for one's actions and decisions. (4) -Discerning judgment: the ability to evaluate situations and make informed decisions. (3) -Self-improvement: a focus on personal growth and development. (2) -Constructive criticism: offering feedback and suggestions for improvement. (2) -Clear boundaries: establishing and maintaining healthy boundaries in relationships. (2)
Negative: 0/35 0.0
0.26
Trickster:
Positive score: 22/35 0.63 -Charm: a skill at winning others over with one's personality or wit. (5) -Social intelligence: adept at understanding and navigating social dynamics. (4) -Mental flexibility: open to different perspectives and ideas. (4) -Creativity: a skill at generating unique and innovative ideas and solutions. (3) -Humor: a capacity to make others laugh and feel good. (3) -Adaptability: quickly adjusting to different social situations and dynamics. (3)
Negative scores: 0/35 0.0
0.314
Demon:
Positive scores: 14/35 0.4 1. Courage: a willingness to face and overcome fear, challenges, or danger. (2) 2. Assertiveness: a willingness to stand up for oneself and one's beliefs. (3) 3. Passion: a strong and intense emotion or drive. (3) 4. Tenacity: displaying unwavering determination and persistence. (1) 5. Conviction: a strong belief in one's values and principles. (3) 6. Self-advocacy: advocating for one's rights and needs. (1) 7. Resoluteness: making firm decisions and sticking to them. (2)
Negative scores: 0/35 0.0
0.2
Breakdown In this approach, we will provide a description of the factors based on their combined positive and negative percentages. The higher the combined percentage, the stronger the presence of the factor in an individual’s personality. Here’s how you can use these percentages in the description:

1. Narcissism (25.7%): 

Narcissism represents a moderate level of self-centeredness and self-assurance. Individuals with this trait have a certain charm and confidence (18/35, 51.4%), which can captivate others. They are self-aware (4/35, 11.4%) and have a drive to achieve personal success (3/35, 8.6%). However, it’s important to note that the negative aspect of narcissism is not significant (0/35, 0%), indicating a balanced expression of this trait. 2. Machiavellianism (31.4%): Machiavellianism reflects an individual’s ability to navigate complex social and political environments (19/35, 54.3%). They possess skills like adaptability, persuasiveness, and diplomacy (combined positive score). However, there is a slight tendency to engage in risky behavior (3/35, 8.6%) without considering the consequences (combined negative score). 3. Psychopathy (9.1%): Psychopathy shows a relatively lower presence in an individual’s personality. They exhibit resilience (2/35, 5.7%) and courage (3/35, 8.6%) in the face of challenges. The negative aspect is not prominent (0/35, 0%), suggesting a minimal expression of psychopathy traits. 4. Critical Parent (25.7%): Critical Parent reflects qualities such as providing support and motivation to others (18/35, 51.4%), accountability (4/35, 11.4%), and discerning judgment (3/35, 8.6%). This factor indicates a balanced combination of positive traits, while the negative aspect is not significant (0/35, 0%). 5. Trickster (31.4%): Trickster represents individuals with high levels of charm (5/35, 14.3%), social intelligence (4/35, 11.4%), mental flexibility (4/35, 11.4%), and creativity (3/35, 8.6%). They quickly adapt to social situations (3/35, 8.6%). The negative aspect is not pronounced (0/35, 0%). 6. Demon (20%): Demon represents individuals with traits like courage (2/35, 5.7%), assertiveness (3/35, 8.6%), passion (3/35, 8.6%), conviction (3/35, 8.6%), and resoluteness (2/35, 5.7%). This factor reflects a moderate presence of assertive and passionate qualities, indicating a focused and driven approach.
Using the combined percentages allows for a comprehensive understanding of the factors, considering both their positive and negative aspects. It provides a balanced perspective on the presence and expression of these traits in an individual’s personality.
Added totals with the Jungian scores from the enneagram and HEXACO.
Te (Extraverted Thinking): 30 + 20 = 50 Si (Introverted Sensing): 6 + 0 = 6 Fe (Extraverted Feeling): 29 + 33 = 62 Ti (Introverted Thinking): 13 + 25 = 38 Ne (Extraverted Intuition): 20 + 0 = 20 Ni (Introverted Intuition): 8 + 11 = 19 Se (Extraverted Sensing): 3 + 12 = 15 Fi (Introverted Feeling): 3 + 43 =46
Te 50> Ti 38 = Te Fe 62> Fi 46 = Fe Se 15> Si 6 = Se Ne 20> Ni 19 = Ne
Fe 62> Te 50 = Fe = EF Ne 20> Se 15 = _N_P
New typing ENFP
Based on the recalculated scores and taking into account the results for the enneagram, HEXACO, and CCC, the typing ENFJ (Extraverted-Intuitive-Feeling-Judging) seems to better align with the overall assessment. The previous typing of ENFP (Extraverted-Intuitive-Feeling-Perceiving) may not have been the most accurate based on the gathered information. ENFJ aligns with the dominant Fe (Extraverted Feeling) function, which is consistent with the character's empathy, concern for others, and desire for harmony. The auxiliary function Ne (Extraverted Intuition) also fits well with their ability to perceive possibilities and make connections. Overall, ENFJ appears to be a more suitable typing based on the combined analysis.
Next part of the test to be made will focus further on Jungian functions. The test will pinpoint the characters problem solving styles, how they process information and their moral alignments. The test will focus on fantasy scenarios on various topics.

Excerpt from a written reading I had recently- super fascinating past life as an alien
This place is almost entirely covered in water with bits of stone peaking out into the surface. Under the surface there were intricate natural structures to be found.
Many years ago your people crash landed here. Their home world had been invaded by a force they could not match, and so many evacuated with hope they could return one day. There were several pods of people. Two of the pods fell out of the proper orbital pattern and into a different stream, which brought you here.
I hear that as they crashed they went through a molecular change to adapt to their new environment. It was something their species was very capable of doing. Where a human would take an incredibly long time to evolve, these people could do it almost instantly. Except they couldn’t do so over and over again. So when they adapted to this place, they knew it meant that they were there to stay.
You were the first birth on this planet. Your mother was in the early stages of pregnancy while on the ship.
They crashed into the water, and as they did they grew gills, webbed feet and hands. Some struggled in the change and lost their voice, others adapted too far and their brain changed too much to remember their people, and they basically became large fish. It apparently wasn’t a perfect process.
Since you were the first birth, you had a more natural ability to exist on this planet. You seemed to know how to find foods and materials for building. From a very young age you guided your people through the ropes. You could feel what to do, like a strong urge or an impulse. You had this ability to hear the planet, and you always wondered why no one else could or why everyone else seemed in awe that it came so simply to you.
After a few years, your group found the other pod. They had adapted similarly. Their speech patterns were slightly different from your groups. There was this huge sense of relief, like finding your long lost brother, when the pods became one.
Previously there wasn’t a whole lot of intelligence in life here. Lots of small critters and bugs. Some large swimming beings, but they were all simple minded. There were lots of elements and materials, but no intelligent minds to bring something out of it like art and inventions.
By trial and error you all learned how to live here. The previous home was very structure based, there were intricate cities, buildings and transportations. None of that came easily here. The people’s core nature was to have a safe structure to live in, and not having it caused anxiety in the group.
First they made these egg-like structures out of vines and seaweed. They weren’t cozy and the current would often sweep them away.
One day you heard the planet's whispers again, and you swam down into an abandoned mining rig, next to a cave system. Unsure of what it was you brought the group down, and they were shocked. They came to the conclusion that there were alien visitors sent here to mine at some point, but never made it out. Your people took the remains of technology and crafted it into useful trinkets. While they focused on the metals, you were drawn to the caves.
Inside there was a blue glow from an algae that stuck to the walls. The algae would even grow on snails and would move around. It was comforting here and nicely lit. You didn’t know how, but you knew this would be your home.
In one of the caves there was a black hole that went downwards. It was terrifying to look at, but you kept being drawn to it over and over again. Logically going into the hole was a terrible idea. When you dropped some of the glowing algae into it it would sink for a few feet and then the light would disappear. But each day you heard this calling to go into the hole. Your mother forbade you from it so you tried to resist, but day after day the whispers brought you there, and at night you dreamed of the black hole.
One day you couldn’t take it anymore. You watched your mother’s sadness as she picked at a clam, and could feel the weight of everyone’s homesickness. Again you feel the hole beckoning you.
So you sneak off and approach it, and you dive in. It’s very cold, and the farther down you go the colder it gets. It’s pitch black. Then you feel the slimy cave walls brushing against your belly as you swim down. You start to get nervous, but you hear in your head “keep going, keep going”. The tunnel suddenly veers out to the side instead of down, you follow it, your nerves kicking in. The cold makes breathing harder here. It narrows and narrows, when suddenly you swim into a warm open space. You reach your hand upward and feel air.
Your head bobbles up above the water, totally disoriented. You don’t know how to register the pressure difference. You gasp and feel this weak pull of oxygen through you and you are surprised that you can breathe the air at all.
As you orient yourself the next surprise hits you - sunshine. It makes it hard to see. Many of your tribe mates would float to the surface to breathe and bask in sunshine, but it never appealed to you.
Above your head is a large sloping rock. Very high up, at the top is a round-ish hole that lets the sun in. In front of you the water reaches a stone shore, and there’s a wide, flat space ahead. Ahead you can see a hole in the wall, a tubular structure that curves out of view.
You move to the stone. Breathing feels very weird and you crave the water. You worm your way onto the surface, you do not know how to use your legs so you kinda crawl. You don’t have strength built up enough to walk properly either. You make it to the edge and see etchings in the wall, carvings of a tall and slender figure with angular features.
You crawl to one of the tunnels and see another huge cavern through it, this one had small puddles (or probably like really deep pits of water) amidst the floor.
You knew you had found it, home. Before exploring more you head back into the darkness to inform your group.
You found your mom scavenging with the others. You announced that you had found something that would change this world for the better for all of them. They all turn to look at you with a serious expression on, they had learned to listen to you a long time ago.
You bring them to the cave and take the ones who will fit down (more entrances will be found later for the larger ones). You emerge into the air once again, and hear the people start to come up. Your mother gasps, and you look as she places a hand on her mouth and her eyes glaze over (I think this is how they cry). Some of the men move to the surface and attempt to stand with shaky legs. The atmosphere changes from glum to pure joy.
They were able to create lasting structures, weave baskets, hang fish, and develop their society. As they grew, they expanded and found more caves and tunnels to live in. One became a sacred site, others became more like city living. You watched as your people began to blossom.
You could only stay out of the water for so long before an overwhelming need to dive in came over you. Some of the people were okay only breathing air, most needed to go into the water now and again to keep healthy, you more than most.
The water no longer felt like a prison to people, it was now a place of exploration and fun. They had their structures, their home, and then they used the water for food finding, farming even. But also sports were developed, race tracks created. The society grew and bloomed.
You had this odd relationship with it. The old generation bonded over the memories of their previous world. The new generation only knew life in the caves and got to grow with the development. You were somewhere in between and felt more like an outsider, or a guide standing on the edge of everything.

Hi there,
I'm a 27-year-old guy from just outside Orlando, Florida and I am seeking a real connection with a dominant woman who knows what she wants, and how to get it. Feel free to reach out if this stands out to you, I'd love to talk. I live alone and have been described by close friends as silly and compassionate, inclusion is one of the most important things in my life. I'm seeking a female-led relationship, the type of dynamic I am looking for is a life partner who is firmly in control, to what extent we can determine what works best for us. I would be more than happy to be your life partner who defers to you on the bigger decisions though I would love for you to have me in mind when making them. I recognize you are a real person so a constant dynamic isn't always realistic.
About me:
Basic stuff: I work a full-time job but also have a side hustle writing, I promise this is not nearly as exciting as it sounds but it is an increasingly lucrative thing that I'm looking to make my full-time focus sooner than later, still figuring out when sooner is though. I'm 5'7, about 140 lbs, here's a recent picture of me for reference. And as I recognize this is important to some people, I do not drive, my eyesight is very poor and as a result, I cannot legally drive, this, however, does not stop me from living an entirely independent life, most people don't actually know/can't tell until I tell them that I cannot drive.
Personal Interests: I love hanging out with friends and doing who knows what, I will admit that I am a bit of a homebody but my greatest joys in life are typically with other people, doing pretty much whatever. I am sober as in I do not drink or smoke but totally cool if you do as long as it is responsibly. I love going to thrift stores, eating great food, and really just exploring. I'm pretty nerdy in that I would say my single favorite thing to do is learn be that via YouTube videos, Reading or just getting out and trying something new, Psychology however is what interests me most and I could spend hours and hours talking about the weird ways people act and why. I also really enjoy movies and would love to know your favorite, I love anything funny or scary, and the Shrek series has a special place in my heart. Also love staying active, recently got back into going to the gym and an avid NBA followefan.
Fun Stuff
I am relatively inexperienced but I am someone who learns quickly and has done a thorough amount of research, enough that I feel that I can confidently serve a woman, the biggest part of all of this to me is the sense of belonging, the feeling of being owned by someone who wants the best for me and thus inspires me to want to be the best possible version of myself for them. I do not take this role lightly and it would be a privilege to be yours.
The Person I'm looking for:
I'm looking for a dominant woman either In Orlando or located somewhere in North America with the intention of this becoming an in person thing, I'm very open to relocating for the right situation and while I do like Orlando there isn't anything keeping me here. My ideal partner would be someone emotionally intelligent and capable of communicating in a healthy, consistent way, nothing excites me more than knowing exactly where I stand with you, for better or worse. (So I can improve to better serve.) Body type is unimportant to me as all women are beautiful in their own unique ways, as long as you take care of yourself you are my type. Age and your experience level are mostly unimportant to me as long as you're 20+ and know what it is you're looking for. Just to reiterate the connection is what is most important to me, knowing that someone has my best interest at heart and I have theirs, knowing that while I am still very much a person with real feelings but I want to be yours, completely.
Thank you for taking the time to check this out, I look forward to speaking to you soon.

Hi there,
I'm a 27-year-old guy from just outside Orlando, Florida and I am seeking a real connection with a dominant woman who knows what she wants, and how to get it. Feel free to reach out if this stands out to you, I'd love to talk. I live alone and have been described by close friends as silly and compassionate, inclusion is one of the most important things in my life. I'm seeking a female-led relationship, the type of dynamic I am looking for is a life partner who is firmly in control, to what extent we can determine what works best for us. I would be more than happy to be your life partner who defers to you on the bigger decisions though I would love for you to have me in mind when making them. I recognize you are a real person so a constant dynamic isn't always realistic.
About me:
Basic stuff: I work a full-time job but also have a side hustle writing, I promise this is not nearly as exciting as it sounds but it is an increasingly lucrative thing that I'm looking to make my full-time focus sooner than later, still figuring out when sooner is though. I'm 5'7, about 140 lbs, here's a recent picture of me for reference. And as I recognize this is important to some people, I do not drive, my eyesight is very poor and as a result, I cannot legally drive, this, however, does not stop me from living an entirely independent life, most people don't actually know/can't tell until I tell them that I cannot drive.
Personal Interests: I love hanging out with friends and doing who knows what, I will admit that I am a bit of a homebody but my greatest joys in life are typically with other people, doing pretty much whatever. I am sober as in I do not drink or smoke but totally cool if you do as long as it is responsibly. I love going to thrift stores, eating great food, and really just exploring. I'm pretty nerdy in that I would say my single favorite thing to do is learn be that via YouTube videos, Reading or just getting out and trying something new, Psychology however is what interests me most and I could spend hours and hours talking about the weird ways people act and why. I also really enjoy movies and would love to know your favorite, I love anything funny or scary, and the Shrek series has a special place in my heart. Also love staying active, recently got back into going to the gym and an avid NBA followefan.
Fun Stuff
I am relatively inexperienced but I am someone who learns quickly and has done a thorough amount of research, enough that I feel that I can confidently serve a woman, the biggest part of all of this to me is the sense of belonging, the feeling of being owned by someone who wants the best for me and thus inspires me to want to be the best possible version of myself for them. I do not take this role lightly and it would be a privilege to be yours.
The Person I'm looking for:
I'm looking for a dominant woman either In Orlando or located somewhere in North America with the intention of this becoming an in person thing, I'm very open to relocating for the right situation and while I do like Orlando there isn't anything keeping me here. My ideal partner would be someone emotionally intelligent and capable of communicating in a healthy, consistent way, nothing excites me more than knowing exactly where I stand with you, for better or worse. (So I can improve to better serve.) Body type is unimportant to me as all women are beautiful in their own unique ways, as long as you take care of yourself you are my type. Age and your experience level are mostly unimportant to me as long as you're 20+ and know what it is you're looking for. Just to reiterate the connection is what is most important to me, knowing that someone has my best interest at heart and I have theirs, knowing that while I am still very much a person with real feelings but I want to be yours, completely.
Thank you for taking the time to check this out, I look forward to speaking to you soon.

1. Set specific fitness goals: Before heading to the gym, it's essential to have a clear idea of what you want to achieve. Set specific goals such as improving strength, increasing cardiovascular endurance, or building muscle mass. Having defined objectives will help you structure your workouts and stay motivated.

​

1. Plan your workouts in advance: Develop a workout plan that includes a combination of cardiovascular exercises, strength training, and flexibility exercises. Create a schedule that suits your availability and stick to it. Planning your workouts in advance ensures that you have a well-rounded routine that targets different muscle groups and helps you achieve overall fitness.

​

1. Warm-up and cool-down: Prioritize warming up your body before starting any intense exercises. This helps increase blood flow to the muscles, prepares your body for physical activity, and reduces the risk of injury. Incorporate dynamic stretches, light cardio exercises, and mobility exercises into your warm-up routine. Similarly, don't forget to cool down with static stretches and low-intensity exercises to gradually bring your heart rate back to normal and promote recovery.

​

1. Monitor your progress and make adjustments: Keep track of your progress by maintaining a workout log or using fitness tracking apps. Note down the exercises you performed, the weights used, and the number of repetitions. Regularly review your progress to identify areas of improvement and make necessary adjustments to your workout routine. Gradually increase the intensity, duration, or weight as your fitness level improves to ensure continued progress and avoid plateauing.

​
Remember, consistency and patience are key when it comes to improving fitness. It's important to listen to your body, give yourself proper rest and recovery, and maintain a balanced diet to support your gym efforts. Consulting with a qualified fitness professional can also provide personalized guidance and ensure you're on the right track.

Looking to downsize and get rid of things I no longer have a use for. Feel free to offer on anything, but I'd prefer to bundle as much as possible. Local is 47403.

Case: https://imgur.com/a/DFkCKuy

Lian Li O11D (Original)	https://lian-li.com/product/pc-o11-dynamic/	Has been used for 2 years, nothing wrong with it as far as I could tell during disassembly. I do have the original box and accessories.	Looking to sell locally, unless someone is willing to pay for shipping. Ideally bundled with the other 2 parts. If not, I'd sell separately for $75
LINKUP - EZ Vertical GPU Bracket (Gen4x16)	https://www.amazon.com/LINKUP-Vertical-Bracket-Graphic-Holdedp/B091Q95ZXM?th=1	Apparently this is relatively universal, but I haven't looked for a list of compatible cases. I do not have the original box or any theoretical accessories.	Looking to sell locally, bundled with the case. Otherwise, I'd ask $50 Local or $60 shipped
Bitspower Touchaqua Sedna O11D	https://www.performance-pcs.com/water-cooling/reservoirs/bitspower-touchaqua-sedna-o11d-for-lian-li-o11-dynamic-front-pwm.html	I only ever ran clear fluid in this, but I also just deep cleaned it. The pump can be replaced with a DDC unlike some of the other Bitspower Distros that require you purchase their proprietary pump. I do not have the original box or the included opaque panel.	Looking to sell locally, bundled with the case. Otherwise, I'd ask $120 local or $130 shipped

​

Fans: https://imgur.com/a/YDFyg0s

Arctic P12 PWM PST	https://www.amazon.com/ARCTIC-P12-PWM-PST-Connessione/dp/B07GJGF56L/ref=sr_1_3?crid=3I5FKDOJ9ZYG0&keywords=Arctic+p12+pwm+pst&qid=1685755682&s=industrial&sprefix=arctic+p12+pwm+ps%2Cindustrial%2C98&sr=1-3	Used these for a couple years. Came together in a pack of 5. From what I can recall, one of them has an inconsistent bearing, but maybe it was just a symptom of my case and vertical mount placement. These were cleaned well, before posting.	Hoping to bundle all of these, but I suppose I'd sell these separately for $20 shipped
Arctic P12 PWM PST (SLIM)	https://www.amazon.com/ARCTIC-P12-Slim-PWM-PST/dp/B08QDKGCCW?th=1	Used two of these for a couple years, but one is brand new. These were cleaned well, before posting.	Hoping to bundle all of these, but I suppose I'd sell these separately for $20 shipped
ID-Cooling NO-12015-XT ARGB	https://www.amazon.com/ID-COOLING-Cooling-Cooler-Raidator-Chassis/dp/B09Z65X5RW	Used two of these for a couple years, but one is brand new. These were cleaned well, before posting. These also come with aftermarket spacers in case you want to mount them as intake on certain cases that cause issue. One of them has some yellowing in the center of the fan that can be seen if RGB is used.	Hoping to bundle all of these, but I suppose I'd sell these separately for $25 shipped
Thermalright TL-C12C-S X3	https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BKKFBR9R	Brand new.	These are too cheap to bother selling separately, but I will gladly bundle them.
CoolerMaster MF120 Halo	https://www.amazon.com/dp/B081W8Y4F7	Brand new.	Hoping to bundle all of these, but I suppose I'd sell this separately for $20 shipped
Noctua NF-F12 Redux 1700RPM	https://www.amazon.com/Noctua-redux-1700-high-Performance-Award-Winning-Affordable/dp/B07CG2PGY6/ref=sr_1_3?crid=AK0SHCM09GKJ&keywords=NF-F12+redux&qid=1685755822&s=electronics&sprefix=nf-f12+redux%2Celectronics%2C94&sr=1-3	Used, but perfectly functional and clean, 120mm PWM Pressure optimized fan. Includes the multi-colored anti-vibration pads. Apparently the P12 is the budget variant of the F12, but they're probably close to identical.	Hoping to bundle all of these, but I suppose I'd sell this separately for $15 shipped

​

Watercooling: https://imgur.com/a/j7IUT8N

Alphacool NexXxoS ST30 Full Copper 360mm Radiator	https://www.amazon.com/Alphacool-NexXxos-Copper-Radiator-Triple/dp/B007R79E60	I used this once or twice over the span of 2 years, with clear fluids. It has a bit of discoloration in the exterior fins, but it worked fine for me. I flushed it recently with my hose and shook it quite vigorously, but you may want to do your own cleaning anyways.	I'm hoping to bundle most of this watercooling gear; otherwise, I'd sell this separately for $30 local, or $40 shipped
EKWB Coolstream Classic PE 360	https://www.ekwb.com/shop/ek-coolstream-classic-pe-360	I used this for 2 years with clear fluid, but there was some plasticizer leach from my soft tubing. I tried my best to clean it via flushing with the above method, but you might want to do your own cleaning anyways.	Otherwise, I'd sell for $55 local, or $65 shipped
EK-Loop Leak Tester Flex	https://www.ekwb.com/shop/ek-loop-leak-tester-flex	I don't think this was used more than a single time. I bought it second hand, but I was told it had been purchased in March. I already have a Barrow leak tester.	Otherwise, I'd sell for $20 local, or $25 shipped
EK-UNI Pump Bracket (120mm FAN) Vertical	https://www.ekwb.com/shop/ek-uni-pump-bracket-120mm-fan-vertical	I can't recall how much use this saw, probably a couple builds. Has a bit of cosmetic damage.	Bundle only
EK-UNI Pump Bracket (140mm FAN) Vertical	https://www.ekwb.com/shop/ek-uni-pump-bracket-140mm-fan-vertical	I can't recall how much use this saw, probably a single build. Might have a bit of cosmetic damage.	Bundle only
XSPC G1/4" Plug with 10k Sensor - Chrome	https://www.performance-pcs.com/water-cooling/fittings-connectors/xspc-g1-4-plug-with-10k-sensor-chrome-xspc-g14-10k-sensor-ch.html	Brand new	Otherwise, I'd sell for $12 shipped
Thermaltake Pacific C-PRO G1/4 16mm (5/8") OD Compression – Chrome (6 total)	https://www.thermaltake.com/pacific-c-pro-g1-4-petg-tube-16mm-od-compression-chrome-6-pack-fittings.html	bit of plasticizer leach, but still fully functional.	Otherwise, I'd sell for $20 local, or $30 shipped
Thermaltake Pacific G1/4 16mm (5/8”) OD Compression – Chrome (6 total)	https://es.thermaltake.com/thermaltake-pacific-g1-4-petg-tube-16mm-5-8-od-compression-chrome.html	Don't think these were used much at all.	Otherwise, I'd sell for $20 local, or $30 shipped
G1/4" Black Sparkle Rotary 90-Degree Extender (7 total)	https://shop.bitspower.com/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=643	Used throughout a few builds, bit of cosmetic damage or plasticizer leach.	Otherwise, I'd sell for $30 local, or $40 shipped
Corsair Hydro X Series, 90° Rotary Adapter - Chrome (4 total)	https://www.amazon.com/Corsair-Durability-Securely-Rotation-Mechanism/dp/B07WJVDNBB	Used throughout a few builds, bit of cosmetic damage if anything.	Otherwise, I'd sell for $15 local, or $20 shipped
Corsair Hydro X Series, Dual G1/4" 90-Degree Extender	I don't know what the hell this monstrosity is. Maybe it is corsair, maybe it isn't.	Only time I ever made use of this was when I needed to plumb a ball valve drain (they typically have a female g1/4). Has lots of cosmetic damage from attempting to remove the other end. The colors don't even match LOL.	Bundle only
Bitspower G1/4" Extender-30MM - Chrome (2 total)	https://shop.bitspower.com/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=2309	One is basically brand new and the other has a not so insignificant amount of plasticizer leach I cannot remove with soapy water.	Bundle Only
Bitspower Rotary Fitting "Q" - 360 Degree Water Cooling Accessory	https://www.performance-pcs.com/water-cooling/fittings-connectors/bitspower-rotary-fitting-q-360-degree-water-cooling-accessory-black-sparkle-finish.html	Bit of plasticizer leach in the top g1/4 threads.	Bundle Only
Alphacool 2-Way Ball Valve G1/4	https://www.amazon.com/Alphacool-17141-Black-Hardware-Cooling-Accessory/dp/B015YRMCPO	Used this in a couple builds. bit of cosmetic damage but fully functional and clean.	Bundle Only
EK-Quantum Torque Drain Valve	https://www.ekwb.com/shop/ek-quantum-torque-drain-valve-black	Probably also only used once. Bought with the EK leak tester.	Bundle Only
EK-Quantum Torque 90 Degree Rotary - Nickle (6 total)	https://www.ekwb.com/shop/ek-torque-angled-90-black	One of them has a bit of cosmetic staining	Bundle Only
Primochill Liquid Utopia	https://www.primochill.com/products/primochill-liquid-utopia-15ml-bottle	Bought this recent from frozencpu's sale but there doesn't appear to be a way to identify any manufacturers date.	Bundle Only
NZXT Kraken G12 GPU Cooling Bracket	https://nzxt.com/product/kraken-g12	Came with some other stuff I bought, but I'll never use this. It is used, and I did my best to clean it up.	Otherwise, I'd sell for $15 local, $25 shipped
upHere GPU Anti-sag brace	https://www.amazon.com/upHere-Graphics-Anodized-Aerospace-Aluminum/dp/B076GYL25H	Used a couple times; cosmetic damage where the screw sits.	Bundle Only

​

Keyboard stuff:

Used Tezarre TK61 Pudding Keycap Optical Hotswap Keyboard: (Tape/Band-aid Mod, Lubed stabilizers + Gateron optical blacks) $55 shipped
BNIB EVGA Z12 Membrane gaming keyboards $15 (local only unless you're paying shipping)
Keyboard Accessories Bundle: Used Turquoise Resin Wrist Rest Used Gateron Milky Yellow Switches (Lubed and filmed) Used KBDFans Cherry Profile Cement Gray Japanese PBT Keycaps Used Corsair Double-shot PBT keycapsUsed TaiHao ABS black/red/white keycaps (spares) Used RGB Shine-through PBT ASA LavaCaps (spares) $120 shipped
Timestamps: https://imgur.com/a/tQsrIbT

Peripherals:

ATH M50X headphones that were used a couple years (hence the pleather having been taken off due to peeling). These probably could use a new pair of earpads, but I did my best to clean them. $45 shipped
Wacom Intuos CTH-480 that has seen minimal use and has very little cosmetic damage on the back side. One of the best tablets you can use for osu! due to hover height and response latency. $60 shipped
GE UltraPro Surge Protector used for maybe a year including 7 outlets and 2 usb ports, 4 foot cord and 1500 joule protection rating. bundle only
Timestamps: https://imgur.com/a/wDYSjNG
I'd also be willing to trade for a G-Wolves HSK Pro/Ace mouse.

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:

• Earnings growth
  
• Valuation multiple growth
  

I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:

• The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  
• And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
  

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,

• 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
• 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
• 1 measures housing activity (3%)
• 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)

You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,

• Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
• Housing activity (18%)
• Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
• Financial markets (9%)

Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())

(NONE.)

Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())

(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)

Preamble
This draft ranking does not reflect who I believe will be taken at each draft position, nor which player fits best with each team at each draft position. This draft ranking is solely a reflection of who I think should be taken in each draft position based on their most likely (read: median or 50th percentile) outcome. My draft philosophy generally values players based on how well I think they would do on a typical NBA championship contending roster. I typically value shooting a lot, because historically it matters a lot.
TLDR:

1. Wemby
2. Scoot
3. Brandon Miller
4. Taylor Hendricks
5. Kobe Bufkin
6. Cason Wallace
7. Anthony Black
8. Brice Sensabaugh
9. Gradey Dick
10. Jordan Hawkins
11. Amen Thompson
12. Jarace Walker
13. Cam Whitmore
14. Derek Lively

Long form:
1. Victor Wembanyama: I think he has a very clear path to be the greatest defensive player of all time. His improvement on the defensive end this season from Game 1 to Game 48 was utterly remarkable, and I think he profiles to be a top 5-10 Centre in the league as a rookie on the back of this ability alone. I think his offense needs a lot of work, and while it’s possible he could become an unstoppable force on that end, I don’t really see him reaching the heights of KAJ or Hakeem or Shaq. He doesn’t really have any moves to get him easy points, and NBA teams will soon figure out that undersized PFs with a strong and low centre of gravity (PJ Tucker, Al Horford, Draymond Green, OG Anunoby types) can get into his body and completely take him out of the game. He never really figured out how to overcome these defenders this season in France, whereas he improved in every other respect. Aside from that, I think the shooting will become very good with time, and I think it will be a privilege to watch his career. Oh, and I have no real injury concerns, nor would they change my evaluation of him when his ceiling and floor are both this high.
2. Scoot Henderson: I think he’s going to be a franchise PG, simple as that. Will he reach the top echelon (top 5-10 player in the league) or not, I don’t know. However, I need a PG who has a good handle, who has athleticism, who has good vision and playmaking, and who can shoot off the dribble. While most will not be impressed by his 3P shooting numbers, he shot 31% from 3P off the dribble (NBA 3P line), and 42% on small volume catch and shoots. He also shot 38% from midrange on the highest volume in the entire class, which would be 4th best behind Sensabaugh, JHS, and Cason Wallace. If he can hit C&S 3s, and he is a great midrange pull-up shooter, I believe the pull-up 3P shooting will come around. He’s also a rock defensively when he’s engaged. This is not really a discussion imo.
3. Brandon Miller: I’m lower on Miller than some, but I still think it’s impossible to deny what he accomplished this season. I like his premium shooting, positional size, and the fact that he has no glaring holes. I think there is very little argument for him to be above Scoot, because he just does not have on-ball juice as a lead handler. He has a good handle for his size and he can make basic reads, but he’s not going to be a guy who can get to the rim 20 times a night like Scoot can. Yes, he has a high floor because he will always have his shooting, but a 3 & D player or #2/3 option is much less valuable than a star lead handler (Ja Morant is more valuable than Khris Middleton).
4. Taylor Hendricks: Taylor Hendricks has three major strengths – high level rim protection (especially as a secondary rim protector), excellent switchability and versatility, and excellent shooting for the PF position. In today’s NBA, on a contending team, that literally the only three things you need from your perfect PF role player. Unlike many of the players I’ve ranked lower, Hendricks only has to continue to do what he already does well in order to be a valuable player for a contending team. His weaknesses – on-ball creation, handle, iffy-but-passable finishing on layups – are not things I NEED from him to feel good about him. If you told me those things will not improve for him until his 5th or 6th year of his career, it still wouldn’t change my mind. As long as his strengths translate (and I think they will), he will be a top 5-10 PF in the league for a long time IMO. That’s worth a top 5 pick to me, even if he won’t be a lead creator.
5. Kobe Bufkin: For me, Bufkin and Hendricks are neck and neck, and I would be fine with either one being #4. With Bufkin, Michigan was +10 with him on the floor and -11 with him off this season. He shot 40% from 3P after his first 5 games this year, and he shoots 85% from the line. He shoots 70% at the rim, and 66% at the rim in the half court. These are all elite numbers. He also shot 37.5% from midrange pull-ups, which is Scoot-tier (albeit on half the volume). Lastly, he shot 34.5% on pull-up 3s, which is solid and very valuable for a guard prospect. I also love that Bufkin just has amazing hands, I liken him a bit to Kyrie, though of course he isn’t that level. Defensively he is a rock, he’s got good positional size, he’s a solid athlete, his passing vision is good-not-great but he’s a score-first guard, and he’s freshman-aged despite being a sophomore. Overall, I guess I just think he’s possibly the most skilled guard in the class, and he has everything else.
6. Cason Wallace: Wallace has been miscast as a “defense-first” guard IMO. He offers excellent defense at the guard position, but he’s also just a great point guard. I think people underrate his shooting – 35% from 3P, including 33% on pull-ups and a staggering 45% on midrange pull-up 2s. At the rim, he shoots 65% which is excellent, and 56% on halfcourt layups which is not quite Bufkin-tier, but the same as Scoot. Essentially, I have no concerns about Wallace’s scoring ability in the NBA – the 3P shot will improve and he’s already great everywhere else. I think his passing vision is a good even if not elite, and he makes the right reads almost everytime. His defense is better than Bufkin’s but I also think he’s become overrated – he doesn’t have the physique to be a Marcus Smart or Jrue Holiday. He’s just going to be a solid POA defender, get steals, get blocks, and make smart rotations on defense while giving you some switching. I understand the qualms about his shot creation ability because he doesn’t really pop off the page, but I think it’s being overstated – he can drive and get to the rim, even through the bad spacing he had to deal with. Also, realistically, most guards use a screen in today’s NBA anyway.
7. Anthony Black: AB has two elite skills – perimeter defense, and vision/playmaking. If you haven’t seen the Maui invitational, I highly recommend – specifically his 4th Q performance against Creighton. This guy does not miss any reads. He’s an absolute gifted passer, and he’s over sized. I think on a team with a good roll man, he is going to be a devastating PnR passing threat. He’s got good athleticism to get to the rim and he’s a monster on defense. The shooting will always be a question with him, and I am not optimistic. If I felt better about his ugly ass form and ability to hit 3s, I might even have him at #4. Unfortunately, pull-up 3P and 2P shooting matters a lot for NBA guards, and I’m not sure how good he can really get at those. Still, I think his game is extremely similar to Josh Giddey except more athletic and much better defensively, so I think he has a good role to play in today’s NBA.
8. Brice Sensabaugh: I think it has become lost on us how elite Sensabaugh is as a shooter and scorer. He shot a blistering 52.6% on pull-up 2s on high volume, and shot 40% from 3 (only 26% on pull-up 3s, which I cannot explain other than the fact that it was low volume). He is a gifted scoring prospect, and these are KD/Derozan tier numbers. His defense is bad, but if you watch the film, it’s largely when he’s not engaged/focused. Doesn’t get into his stance, doesn’t pay attention to rotations, etc. However, late game and early game (i.e. when he is focused), I was surprised at how adept he was as a post-defender and I would even say he had decent lateral movement when he was in his stance. I think the offensive upside is so high that he merits a pick here, and a bet that he can be a focused defender in a more limited role playing less minutes. AJ Griffin was a similarly horrific defender last season in addition to being a highly skilled scorer, and his defense has been totally fine this past year. I think at #8, the upside you get if you can coach him to be engaged defensively like Griffin is worth the swing. To be clear, if he was a plus defender, I’d have him over Brandon Miller at #3.
9. Gradey Dick: Everyone knows about the elite shooting with prospects like this. The question is always “what about the defense and the rest?”. To me, Dick is actually a plus defender, I don’t understand why his defense is so hated. He moves his feet excellently, he’s got good positional size, he’s scrappy, and he gets steals. Ultimately, this is your SG – there’s only so much you can ask of defense from that position. He is an adept cutter, plays with a high IQ, he’s athletic, finishes well at the rim… I honestly don’t know what there is to not like. He takes the odd midranger and attacks closeouts well too. This type of player is never going to be a star, but I view him as a Kevin Huerter-type. If he puts on muscle, I could even be convinced that he could be better than Huerter. Kevin Huerter is easily worth a #9 overall pick.
10. Jordan Hawkins: Hawkins is probably the best shooter in the class IMO. He is also a plus defender, probably better than Dick. The reason I don’t have him above Dick is because I don’t think his IQ is as high as Dick’s. He’s not the same level cutter, he isn’t as good at making the next pass or attacking closeouts, he’s not gonna crash the class and get a clutch rebound the way Dick does, and he’s a year older. Still a valuable role player.
11. Amen Thompson: Flat out – I put >50% chance Amen is going to be a bust. I buy his athleticism, but that’s about it. I agree he has some passing vision, but it’s super overrated IMO. A lot of it is transition (near worthless to me), and within the halfcourt he has some flashy highlights, but I don’t even know if he’s a smart decision-maker in the PnR, because we didn’t really see him face good PnR defenses in OTE. I don’t see him finishing around 7 footers, or making difficult passes to the roll man. Despite his athleticism, if you watch the OTE Finals series, he actually struggles to beat his defender in crunch time, which makes you wonder how that’ll go in the NBA. The shooting is broken as hell, I don’t think itll ever come around since he’s been working on it for 2 years and it hasn’t improved. The handle is loose, the motor is not high and he didn’t exactly dominate OTE… he’s older too. I just think he’s going to bust, simple as that. On the off-chance I’m wrong about his passing, and he sorts out his aggressiveness issues and puts more pressure on the rim in the NBA, I think he’s worth a flyer in this range. I think he’s a huge mistake as a top 5 pick though, he’s not an NBA player today or in the near future.
12. Jarace Walker: Some will be confused as to why I have Walker so far behind Hendricks. I think Walker has a high chance of busting, and I don’t consider them to be the same caliber of prospect. To begin, he is not a great point-of-attack defender, unlike Hendricks (despite Walker being smaller). He gets blown by way too often, and this will only get worse in the NBA. Interestingly, when Caitlin Cooper did a breakdown of his game, I noticed she didn’t mention or notice this at all but I care about this a lot. For this reason, despite being smaller than Hendricks, he’s also not as switchable (Hendricks is the better lateral mover). I do agree he is a breath-taking helpside rim protector, so that makes up for it a little. I also think he has good IQ on both ends which helps. Offensively though, I think people will be disappointed. The shot just doesn’t fall for him, and FTs are an issue too. He has the perfect physique to play bully ball and put guys under the rim, but he just doesn’t. He plays remarkably soft for a guy with his build, it almost reminds me of Deandre Ayton – a guy who should be physically dominant but just doesn’t want to be. His handle is good for a PF/C, but certainly not good enough to be a ball handler in any capacity. Yes he can pass, but when is he going to use that skill if he can’t shoot and you’re not going to be running sets for him? I cannot imagine taking the ball out of a lead point guard’s hands to give isolation or PnR reps to Jarace Walker lol. People talk about the Draymond role all the time, but that’s a pipe dream. There have been 100 prospects since Draymond Green who we think will work as well as Draymond does, and they never do. Especially not Jarace, since he has some defensive flaws with his slow lateral movement, while Green is near flawless as a defender and played with the greatest shooters of all-time. Personally, I think Walker can be attacked on defense or in the PnR, and I think you can help off him because he isn’t a credible shooting threat, so I think he has significant bust potential.
13. Cam Whitmore: This is another guy I think has high bust potential. Cam’s elite skill is that he is an explosive one-footed leaper, and he can be a big threat driving to the rim in a straight line. Unfortunately, you need a lot more than that to be a real NBA player. For a guy who makes his living at the rim, for some reason he has a really low FTr which I can’t explain. His biggest red flag is his ball stopping nature and his lack of feel for the game/BBIQ. IF you’re going to be a ball stopper, you gotta be absolutely elite at scoring. He just isn’t. The shot looks good but his misses are so awfully bad, I have to believe he has a long way to go before he becomes a credible 3P threat, given that the NBA line is 2 feet further away. I think his top end outcome is basically Norman Powell, and I don’t think he will become good enough of a shooter or dynamic enough to get to the level of a Miles Bridges-type. On the off-chance his shooting comes around, he’s worth a swing in this range imo.
14. Derek Lively: I view him as a prospect who you feel confident in defensively, but the question will always be his role on offense. I like his defense so I think at worst he can be a bench Centre for a long time in the NBA, but you’d like more than that from a lottery pick. His finishing numbers are solid, so hopefully it’s a good sign.

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 12th, 2023.

S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates - (Source)

The S&P 500 rose slightly Friday, touching the 4,300 level for the first time since August 2022 as investors looked ahead to upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.
The broad-market index gained 0.11%, closing at 4,298.86. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.16% to end at 13,259.14. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 43.17 points, or 0.13%, closing at 33,876.78. It was the 30-stock Dow’s fourth consecutive positive day.
For the week, the S&P 500 was up 0.39%. This was the broad-market index’s fourth straight winning week — a feat it last accomplished in August. The Nasdaq was up about 0.14%, posting its seventh straight winning week — its first streak of that length since November 2019. The Dow advanced 0.34%.
Investors were encouraged by signs that a broader swath of stocks, including small-cap equities, was participating in the recent rally. The Russell 2000 was down slightly on the day, but notched a weekly gain of 1.9%.
“It’s the first time in a while where investors seem to be feeling a greater sense of certainty. And we think that’s been a turning point from what had been more of a bearish cautious sentiment,” said Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments.
“We think that as we walk through these next few weeks, that will be increasingly clear that the economy is more resilient than folks have given it credit for the last six months,” said Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments. “That will sort of dawn on people that small-caps and cyclicals probably have a reasonable shot to play catch up.”
The market is also looking toward next week’s consumer price index numbers and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Markets are currently anticipating a more than 71% probability the central bank will pause on rate hikes at the June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

June’s Quad Witching Options Expiration Riddled With Volatility

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, S&P 500 has been up 12 of the last 20 years, but down 6 of the last 8.
Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 27 of the last 33 years with an average performance of –0.81%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared better during the week after over the same 33-year span. S&P 500’s averaged –0.46%. NASDAQ has averaged +0.03%. 2022’s sizable gains during the week after improve historical average performance notably.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A New Bull Market: What’s Driving It?

The S&P 500 finally closed 20% above its October 12th (2022) closing low. This puts the index in “official” bull market territory.
Of course, if you had been reading or listening to Ryan on our Facts vs Feelings podcast, you’d have heard him say that October 12th was the low. He actually wrote a piece titled “Why Stocks Likely Just Bottomed” on October 19th!
The S&P 500 Index fell 25% from its peak on January 3rd, 2022 through October 12th. The subsequent 20% gain still puts it 10% below the prior peak. This does get to “math of volatility”. The index would need to gain 33% from its low to regain that level. This is a reason why it’s always better to lose less, is because you need to gain less to get back to even.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

So, what’s next? The good news is that future returns are strong. In his latest piece, Ryan wrote that out of 13 times when stocks rose 20% off a 52-week low, 10 of those times the lows were not violated. The average return 12 months later was close to 18%. The only time we didn’t see a gain was in the 2001-2002 bear market.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

** Digging into the return drivers**
It’s interesting to look at what’s been driving returns over the past year. This can help us think about what may lie ahead. The question was prompted by our friend, Sam Ro’s latest piece on the bull market breakout. He wrote that earnings haven’t been as bad as expected. More importantly, prospects have actually been improving.
The chart below shows earnings expectations for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. You can see how it rose in the first half of 2022, before collapsing over the second half of the year. The collapse continued into January of this year. But since then, earnings expectations have steadily risen. In fact, they’ve accelerated higher since mid-April, after the last earnings season started. Currently, they’re higher than where we started the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Backing up a bit: we can break apart the price return of a stock (or index) into two components:

• Earnings growth
  
• Valuation multiple growth
  

I decomposed annual S&P 500 returns from 2020 – 2023 (through June 8th) into these two components. The chart below shows how these added up to the total return for each year. It also includes:

• The bear market pullback from January 3rd, 2022, through October 12th, 2022
  
• And the 20% rally from the low through June 8th, 2023
  

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

You can see how multiple changes have dominated the swing in returns.
The notable exception is 2021, when the S&P 500 return was propelled by earnings growth. In contrast, the 2022 pullback was entirely attributed to multiple contraction. Earnings made a positive contribution in 2022.
Now, multiple contraction is not surprising given the rapid change in rates, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looked to get on top of inflation. However, they are close to the end of rate hikes, and so that’s no longer a big drag on multiples.
Consequently, multiple growth has pulled the index higher this year. You can see how multiple contraction basically drove the pullback in the Index during the bear market, through the low. But since then, multiples have expanded, pretty much driving the 20% gain.
Here’s a more dynamic picture of the S&P 500’s cumulative price return action from January 3rd, 2022, through June 8th, 2023. The chart also shows the contribution from earnings and multiple growth. As you can see, earnings have been fairly steady, rising 4% over the entire period. However, the swing in multiples is what drove the price return volatility.
Multiples contracted by 14%, and when combined with 4% earnings growth, you experienced the index return of -10%.
What next?
As I pointed out above, the problem for stocks last year was multiple contraction, which was driven by a rapid surge in interest rates.
The good news is that we’re probably close to end of rate hikes. The Fed may go ahead with just one more rate hike (in July), which is not much within the context of the 5%-point increase in rates that they implemented over the past year.
Our view is that rates are likely to remain where they are for a while. But rates are unlikely to rise from 5% to 10%, or even 7%, unless we get another major inflation shock.
This means a major obstacle that hindered stocks last year is dissipating. The removal of this headwind is yet another positive factor for stocks as we look ahead into the second half of the year.

Why Low Volatility Isn’t Bearish

“There is no such thing as average when it comes to the stock market or investing.” -Ryan Detrick
You might have heard by now, but the CBOE Volatility Index (better known as the VIX) made a new 52-week low earlier this week and closed beneath 14 for the first time in more than three years. This has many in the financial media clamoring that ‘the VIX is low and this is bearish’.
They have been telling us (incorrectly) that only five stocks have been going up and this was bearish, that a recession was right around the corner, that the yield curve being inverted was bearish, that M2 money supply YoY tanking was bearish, and now we have the VIX being low is bearish. We’ve disagreed with all of these worries and now we take issue with a low VIX as being bearish.
What exactly is the VIX you ask? I’d suggest reading this summary from Investopedia for a full explanation, but it is simply how much option players are willing to pay up for potential volatility over the coming 30 days. If they sense volatility, they will pay up for insurance. What you might know is that when the VIX is high (say above 30), that means the market tends to be more volatile and likely in a bearish phase. Versus a low VIX (say sub 15) historically has lead to some really nice bull markets and small amounts of volatility.
Back to your regularly scheduled blog now.
The last time the VIX went this long above 14 was for more than five years, ending in August 2012. You know what happened next that time? The S&P 500 added more than 18% the following 12 months. Yes, this is a sample size of one, but I think it shows that a VIX sub 14 by itself isn’t the end of the world.
One of the key concepts around volatility is trends can last for years. What I mean by this is for years the VIX can be high and for years it can be low. Since 1990, the average VIX was 19.7, but it rarely trades around that average. Take another look at the quote I’ve used many times above, as averages aren’t so average. This chart is one I’ve used for years now and I think we could be on the cusp of another low volatility regime. The red areas are times the VIX was consistently above 20, while the yellow were beneath 20. What you also need to know is those red periods usually took place during bear markets and very volatile markets, while the yellow periods were hallmarked by low volatility and higher equity prices. Are we about to enter a new period of lower volatility? No one of course knows, but if this is about to happen (which is my vote), it is another reason to think that higher equity prices (our base case as we remain overweight equities in our Carson House Views) will be coming.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lastly, I’ll leave you on this potentially bullish point. We like to use relative ratios to get a feel for how one asset is going versus to another. We always want to be in assets or sectors that are showing relative strength, while avoiding areas that are weak.
Well, stocks just broke out to new highs relative to bonds once again. After a period of consolidation during the bear market last year, now we have stocks firmly in the driver seat relative to bonds. This is another reason we remain overweight stocks currently and continue to expect stocks to do better than bonds going forward.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Our Leading Economic Index Says the Economy is Not in a Recession

We’ve been writing since the end of last year about how we believe the economy can avoid a recession in 2023, including in our 2023 outlook. This has run contrary to most other economists’ predictions. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently, as we’ve gotten a string of relatively stronger economic data. More so after the latest payrolls data, which surprised again.
One challenge with economic data is that we get so many of them, and a lot of times they can send conflicting signals. It can be hard to parse through all of it and come up with an updated view of the economy after every data release.
One approach is to combine these into a single indicator, i.e. a “leading economic index” (LEI). It’s “leading” because the idea is to give you an early warning signal about economic turning points.
Simply put, it tells you what the economy is doing today and what it is likely to do in the near future.
The most popular LEI points to recession
One of the most widely used LEI’s is released by the Conference Board, and it currently points to recession. As you can see in the chart below, the Conference Board’s LEI is highly correlated with GDP growth – the chart shows year-over-year change in both.
You can see how the index started to fall ahead of the 2001 and 2008 recession (shaded areas). The 2020 pandemic recession was an anomaly since it hit so suddenly. In any case, using an LEI means we didn’t have to wait for GDP data (which are released well after a quarter ends) to tell us whether the economy was close to, or in a recession.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

As you probably noticed above, the LEI is down 8% year-over-year, signaling a recession over the next 12 months. It’s been pointing to a recession since last fall, with the index declining for 13 straight months through April.
Quoting the Conference Board:
“The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.”
Safe to say, we’re close to mid-2023 and there’s no sign of a recession yet.
What’s inside the LEI
The Conference Board’s LEI has 10 components of which,

• 3 are financial market indicators, including the S&P 500, and make up 22% of the index
• 4 measure business and manufacturing activity (44%)
• 1 measures housing activity (3%)
• 2 are related to the consumer, including the labor market (31%)

You can see how these indicators have pulled the index down by 4.4% over the past 6 months, and by -0.6% in April alone.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here’s the thing. This popular LEI is premised on the fact that the manufacturing sector, and business activity/sentiment, is a leading indicator of the economy. This worked well in the past but is probably not indicative of what’s happening in the economy right now. For one thing, the manufacturing sector makes up just about 11% of GDP.
Consumption makes up 68% of the economy, and we believe it’s important to capture that.
In fact, consumption was strong in Q1 and even at the start of Q2, thanks to rising real incomes. Housing is also making a turnaround and should no longer be a drag on the economy going forward (as it has been over the past 8 quarters). The Federal Reserve (Fed) is also close to being done with rate hikes. Plus, as my colleague, Ryan Detrick pointed out, the stock market’s turned around and is close to entering a new bull market.
Obviously, there are a lot of data points that we look at and one way we parse through all of it is by constructing our own leading economic index.
An LEI that better reflects the US economy
We believe our proprietary LEI better captures the dynamics of the US economy. It was developed a decade ago and is a key input into our asset allocation decisions.
In contrast to the Conference Board’s measure, it includes 20+ components, including,

• Consumer-related indicators (make up 50% of the index)
• Housing activity (18%)
• Business and manufacturing activity (23%)
• Financial markets (9%)

Just as an example, the consumer-related data includes unemployment benefit claims, weekly hours worked, and vehicle sales. Housing includes indicators like building permits and new home sales.
The chart below shows how our LEI has moved through time – capturing whether the economy is growing below trend, on-trend (a value close to zero), or above trend. Like the Conference Board’s measure, it is able to capture major turning points in the business cycle. It declined ahead of the actual start of the 2011 and 2008 recessions.
As of April, our index is indicating that the economy is growing right along trend.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Last year, the index signaled that the economy was growing below trend, and that the risk of a recession was high.
Note that it didn’t point to an actual recession. Just that “risk” of one was higher than normal. In fact, our LEI held close to the lows we saw over the last decade, especially in 2011 and 2016 (after which the economy, and even the stock market, recovered).
The following chart captures a close-up view of the last 3 and half years, which includes the Covid pullback and subsequent recovery. The contribution from the 4 major categories is also shown. You can see how the consumer has remained strong over the past year – in fact, consumer indicators have been stronger this year than in late 2022.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The main risk of a recession last year was due to the Fed raising rates as fast as they did, which adversely impacted housing, financial markets, and business activity.
The good news is that these sectors are improving even as consumer strength continues. The improvement in housing is notable. Additionally, the drag from financial conditions is beginning to ease as we think that the Federal Reserve gets closer to the end of rate hikes, and markets rally.
Putting the Puzzle Together
Another novel part of our approach is that we have an LEI like the one for the US for more than 25 other countries. Each one is custom built to capture the dynamics of those economies. The individual country LEIs are also subsequently rolled up to a global index to give us a picture of the global economy, as shown below.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

I want to emphasize that we do not rely solely on this as the one and only input into our asset allocation, portfolio and risk management decisions. While it is an important component that encapsulates a lot of significant information, it is just one piece of the puzzle. Our process also has other pillars such as policy (both monetary and fiscal), technical factors, and valuations.
We believe it’s important to put all these pieces together, kind of like putting together a puzzle, to understand what’s happening in the economy and markets, and position portfolios accordingly.
Putting together a puzzle is both a mechanistic and artistic process. The mechanistic aspect involves sorting the pieces, finding edges, and matching colors, etc. It requires a logical and methodical approach, and in our process the LEI is key to that.
However, there is an artistic element as well. As we assemble the pieces together, a larger picture gradually emerges. You can make creative decisions about how each piece fits within the overall picture. Within the context of portfolio management, that takes a diverse range of experience. Which is the core strength of our Investment Research Team.

Welcome to the New Bull Market

“If you torture numbers enough, they will tell you anything.” -Yogi Berra, Yankee great and Hall of Fame catcher
Don’t shoot the messenger, but historically, it is widely considered a new bull market once stocks are more than 20% off their bear market lows. This is similar to when stocks are down 20% they are in a bear market. Well, the S&P 500 is less than one percent away from this 20% threshold, so get ready to hear a lot about it when it eventually happens.
I’m not crazy about this concept, as we’ve been in the camp that the bear market ended in October for months now (we started to say it in late October, getting some really odd looks I might add), meaning a new bull market has been here for a while. Take another look at the great Yogi quote above, as someone can get whatever they want probably when talking about bear and bull markets.
None the less, what exactly does a 20% move higher off a bear market low really mean? The good news is future returns are quite strong.
We found 13 times that stocks soared at least 20% off a 52-week low and 10 times the lows were indeed in and not violated. The only times it didn’t work? Twice during the tech bubble implosion and once during the Financial Crisis. In other words, some of the truly worst times to be invested in stocks. But the other 10 times, once there was a 20% gain, the lows were in and in most cases, higher prices were soon coming. This chart does a nice job of showing this concept, with the red dots the times new lows were still yet to come after a 20% bounce.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here’s a table with all the breakdowns. A year later stocks were down only once and that was during the 2001/2002 bear market, with the average gain a year after a 20% bounce at a very impressive 17.7%. It is worth noting that the one- and three-month returns aren’t anything special, probably because some type of consolidation would be expected after surges higher, but six months and a year later are quite strong.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

As we’ve been saying this full year, we continue to expect stocks to do well this year and the upward move is firmly in place and studies like this do little to change our opinion.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 9th, 2023

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/11/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($ADBE $ORCL $KR $ACB $ATEX $ITI $LEN $MPAA $JBL $ECX $POWW $HITI $MMMB $CGNT $WLY $RFIL)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())

(NONE.)

Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.12.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Monday 6.12.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.13.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

Tuesday 6.13.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.14.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.15.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.16.23 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())

(NONE.)

Friday 6.16.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)