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2023.03.26 03:07 ossefbbrjx 😘👉👌 IF YOU TAP YOU WILL CUM 🍆💦
 | submitted by ossefbbrjx to ap5hwj61hi [link] [comments] IF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMIF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMIF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMhttps://i.redd.it/wshlfq72hzpa1.gifI turned to the lane and hurled the ball with all my might. To my surprise, it flew down the lane and hit directly where I wanted it to, hitting my first strike of the night. Kayla, Alan, and Amanda all whooped in joy. "Of course." Jessica smiled, slightly biting her lip. Read 12252 times over her feet. He sat back on his heels, looking down at his He sped up, driving north on US 67, passed the train station and through historic down town Kirkwood. The speed limit here was only 30, but he was doing 55 to get away from Derek, who was sticking to his tail. A minute later, they raced through the intersection with Manchester Road. He ran the red light, hoping that cross traffic would stop he pursuer, but at this time of night, it was almost empty. They were now on a divided part of US 67 and he floored it, taking his speed up to almost 90, and to his surprise, Derek's old Camaro managed to keep the pace. Alexander in the house. But none of this exactly stopped me from asking her out, and my asking her out was met with a heartbreaking rejection. I recall it so clear, as we left class I threw the question. “Zoe ughhh, do you mind if I ask you something before you go?” I mumbled without showing my nervousness. She turned and smiled, “sure what’s up?”. Her eyes met my own and my heart pulsated into my ribcage. I scanned the room quickly and made sure we were alone. “I really want to get to know you outside of school” I said calmly. She made an awkward nod and failed to maintain eye contact. I continued, “I’d like to take you out to a movie or something”. I paused and pondered whether or not to ass any other propositions. She stood from me in an unusually shy manner and looked across at me. “I really like you too” she said, “but just not in that kind of way... you’re just not really my type”. My head sank and I quickly composed myself. I began to walk to the doorway with her. “That’s okay” I said in disappointment, “I understand”. She looked sad to have rejected me. To be honest I hated her for not giving me the chance. But I quickly forgot it and moved on with my day. Later Zoe tried to make me feel better by being extra talkative and bubbly to me, but I saw through it. Zoe and I continued to be good friend’s, she even got a boyfriend shortly after I asked her out. During this time she was unusually cautious about talking to me about her personal life with this guy. I knew Zoe could tell I was upset by her recent relationship, so I tried my best to just act normal. "How long have you been standing there? And what do you mean?" I question, still kind of in shock of seeing him there. I didn't care though and I continued shove my cock deeper until it could go no further in her. “Hey girls – maybe I’m lost here – why do we need to formalate a plan exactly?” Tyler butted in hesitantly. To my shock, Jamie answered “I don’t care just put the fucking thing on already!” “All of those?!” I hear the music pop on and step away, Beth must have picked this one just to have a laugh because she’s attempted to sing it with me. For the record she can sing, in the shower, with dogs howling as back up. Actually she’s been trying to get me into other music but the only thing I’ve bothered singing is from a band called Queen and their lead singer Freddy Mercury. He was considered one of the greatest and now ‘Somebody to Love’ is coming out over the speakers minus lead vocals. There is a movement you have to have to help with the beat of the song and I feel ridiculous but if Freddy Mercury didn’t feel like a goof ball singing it in front of thousands I better suck it up for three judges. I swear the stomping in the bass of the song is louder than usual but the auditorium is built to push sound if you go all out for vocals and I am. The song finally comes to the end with the final piano notes and I stand waiting for my review. 2005-01-23 21:50:47 Not being allowed a uniform had one advantage - at least she didn't need to get dressed in the morning. Mom called back, “Sure honey.” --- "No. We have a better idea." “You….ah ah…oh gawd…weren’t suppose…so big…take the scarf off!” she moaned and started moving up her pussy on my pole furiously. If this bitch wanted cock then I will give it to her! I grabbed her and threw her on the bed and jumped on her and slammed my dick into her. She shivered with bliss and tried to match my stroke but she couldn’t keep up with me. I was pounding her pussy like it was the last I will ever fuck. “He was in the right place at the wrong time. Only reason he’s not in the hospital is because she had me back off,” I assure him as I get to my bike. Jeannette was still slightly confused, but turned toward her parents, "This is Brandon, we go to school together. Brandon, these are my parents, Jack and Jen." "I don't know much Blake, but I do know that when a boy gets an erection, it's because he is turned on. Are you turned on by my tits?" She shook back and forth, jiggling her breasts for me. “Ok, Billy, if we finish fast can I play with her some more?” Charlie begged. Without warning, something in the blood changed. Instead of exciting him, it filled him with absolute terror. He felt like something was standing over him, something abominable and unparalleled in its wrath, like it was staring straight at him and planning its first strike. Kneeling on all fours with his head bowed, Jason shivered as wave after wave of blood broke against his back, waiting to feel some hand grab him or a blade tear through his flesh. He could feel it closing in, wrapping around him like a straightjacket and weighing down upon his soul like his own tombstone. This evil, what in the world was it?! Now I’m not racist at all and only said it because I was so pissed. After twenty minutes and another wine cooler, a neighbor popped over to tell us he'd checked with the power company and it was going to be about two or three hours. We thanked him, grabbed a fresh round of drinks, and changed into our suits and headed to the pool. It was cool by the water, and Mom and Dad had spared no expense on the patio furniture, it was very comfortable. We pulled our chairs to face each other and just started talking. 2020-08-17 13:49:13 Today is the day that Kim is coming in, there are tons of paparazzi outside, there is a table set up along the near the back wall, with a screen with Kim's name on it behind the table, and a little area behind the screen for extra books. My manager told me that Kim would have one security guard with her that would stand behind her, and I would have the privilege of standing next to the security guard as a symbol of the store. "So you're going to choose that little slut over your own mom then huh?" She asked. “Well? What do you want?” I asked, stroking her face again. She put her hand on the back of mine and closed her eyes with a little sigh. A new show just so happened to be starting and she turned her head to take a peek before looking back up at me. She sighed again, deeply this time and scrambled back up on the couch, pushing me back against the arm. She lay down on me with her head on my chest facing the TV. Being bigger than me, she didn’t really fit, but neither of us cared. I put my arms around her and sighed contentedly. These were the moments with my sister that I truly treasured. Then I looked at her mother and said, “Now kiss Melissa’s pussy goodbye and do just as good a job as she did on yours.” Abby lowered an eyebrow, a smirk painted on her face. “Who here knows Quinn?” she asked, and nearly every girl who was paying attention put her hand up. “No, never. You’re the first girl I’ve ever had sex with, Sis,” he informed her in a soft voice, “and it was beautiful, for me, at least. How about you? Have you ever been with a boy before?” James stared at me for a few seconds. “Freshman.” He remarked, then turned to Nicole. “You’re dating a freshman, aren’t you?” ‘That....is none of your business,’ replied Sky softly. Ron looked deeply into Sky’s eyes for a moment before writing something down on the parchment in front of him. I stared at her and smiled. "Im in love.." I sad under my breath. " Baby.....I'm.....I'm gonna.....I'm cumminggg...." Mina moans announcing cupping her pert ass cheek as the left grew bolder. She was so wet and his thumb was slick with her “Wyatt….I think I’m ready.” I say as I feel my orgasm slowly start to build as Wyatt slowly thrust into me and paused. The girls wanted to hear the rest of the story. They didn’t want us to go but Fred said we had to meet some friends. The girls offered their email addresses and made us promise to tell them the rest of the story. “It’s alcoholic!” she spluttered, looking at Alice shocked and almost angry. I was losing control of the situation and I stammered, "No Nora, I was answering your first question and I said your breasts were a 'C' size and because of that they were 'A plus' with me." relive one of the most monumental days of his life. Only one thing left to do. “That's OK you won't be able to duplicate everything him and I share.” Just as she hit her orgasm I screamed I was cumming and started pumping her with my seed as I let out a loud grunt, which intensified her orgasm. The fact that we just had sex in front of our mom as she got off by watching us made our orgasms last that much longer and feel that much better. After what seemed like ages, we all finally came down from our sex highs and lay in silence, still in disbelief over what just took place, but satisfied nonetheless. 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2023.03.26 03:05 bpdbmvious 😘👉👌 IF YOU TAP YOU WILL CUM 🍆💦
 | submitted by bpdbmvious to 725s0qrxd3 [link] [comments] IF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMIF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMIF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMhttps://i.redd.it/dwutllfrgzpa1.gif“That was the best,’’ Brooklyn says, panting and out of breath. “Thanks for that. I never knew it would be this good.” well, i could say that i found my one and only lover. the next two weeks after that party had changed my life. we were in blissful puppy love, doing everything together. i could say everything was great. the faces of the people at school when they seen me and her walk through the halls together, hand-in-hand, was priceless. we were the talk of the school until something else came up to gossip about. i still couldn't convince her to let me drive her home. you know, you'd think id be able to meet her parents, right? wrong. there was something she was keeping from me, and i just couldn't seem to figure it out. so i decided to put that to the back burner for a bit and focus on more important issues. i don't know how it happened, but we seemed to of stopped talking as much and there was something wrong but she kept admitting that she was fine. so, one day, after school i came up an idea to follow her bus to her house and talk to her in private at her home. so, i followed the line of buses as it pulled out of the school parking lot, blue diesel smoke rolling everywhere. i had memorized her bus number, so i followed it as it turned, being sure to keep a few cars between me and the bus. as the bus would stop and go, i would always look for her when kids would get off the bus. but, as i followed the bus back onto the main road, i realized that it was empty and that she was no longer on and that i missed her. so, i flipped a U-Turn in the middle of the road, tires squealing as i did. i backed up, dumped the clutch and roared my 300ci. motor as fast as it could go, leaving a nice set of black marks on the road. i sped back the way i had come, slowing down at the places the bus stopped, searching for her as far as i could see. as i drove, i remembered one of our phone calls where she described her house as being nice, with a light blue exterior and white window frames, with a tire swing and a nice, lifted red suburban in the driveway. i looked and looked and..... THERE! there was the house, with a young kid in the front yard, playing with flowers in the grass and Julie hanging up laundry on the clothesline. i slowed and pulled into the gravel driveway, rocks crunching under my tires. the sound of a vehicle approaching made Julie turn around, and when she saw it was me, she said something to the little girl, who i now realized as her little cousin Jennifer that i have met a time or two, and Jen ran into the house. He glanced at his watch and leaned across Christie to open her door. Lee stepped out of them and kicked them to the side of the room. I just answered “Nope. Not me. Besides, I wouldn’t do that to her” “I know, but I wore it for daddy, would have worn it earlier but the other wives would probably have a hard time about it, and didn't want the hassle.” she peers over at the men and then back to Jenny “even in this tiny bikini I'll still get lines.... why don't we both bath topless.” giggling as she suggests it. breasts. His friend bryce was the star Todd. Todd walked up to her leaned over and kissed her on the lips. He then pulled off his jumpsuit he was wearing, dressed as a prisoner. He dropped his underwear to the floor. Out came the biggest cock she had ever laid eyes on. It had to be 8 and a half or 9 inches. She just grinned grabbing his cock and guiding it to her mouth. She didn’t have to move much as David was fucking her in a way her mouth moved up and down her Todd’s shaft. And why not? She was with two very good looking boys who were obviously attracted to her. And she was in control. “You got something to say pussy.” He threatened They held hands and looked at the lights shimmering across the wavelets as they walked under the shining moon. In another context or even with a few years under their belts, it might have presented a romantic scene and set the stage for a lustful conclusion, but neither of them had any experience of romance, were far too young to appreciate the finer points of love or the niceties of the prelude to lust. They were both aware though, of a heightened sense and awareness of each other. Their nerve endings jangled with a shared excitement for what might happen. They were aware of a sense of risk and of a previously un-experienced feeling that might ensue and engulf them. At some fundamental level, a tacit and unspoken agreement had been reached, nothing articulated, but an agreement none the less, that they were about to take this brief liaison to another level. Beyond any place they had been before. “Think of me fingering myself again!” “Ok, ok that’s enough.” She said backing away, “I’ve got a husband to think about, so no more touching. I’m only here to watch.” She gave me half the money she was holding and tucked the other half into her ample breasts. I sat down on the couch and tried to collect my thoughts. I was planning a trip with my friends and I hadn’t yet figured out how to finance it. Looking at the money in my hand I realized this already would be enough to get me to New York and back and still have plenty left over, and it was only half! “Do you need me to start you off?” She asked sweetly. Actually I would’ve much preferred she did me herself, but I was being paid to perform and that was what I was going to do. But I wasn’t about to refuse a little action from this sexy mom. I was so nervous I could hardly work my mouth, but I managed to work out a sort of mumbled ‘yes please’. So she walked over to the stereo and pressed play, dancing slowly to the music. She sauntered over to where I was sitting and dropped to her knees, unbuttoning just enough of her sweater to give me an eyeful of nice cleavage. She undid my zipper and had my cock out in no time. I’ve always considered myself to be on the rather large side, and I could tell she was pleased by the smile on her lips. And before I knew it those very same lips were sucking the head of my dick. I was in heaven, only having had a blowjob once before and nothing compared to this one. She sucked me for a couple minutes, running her tongue up and down my shaft. Then with a final kiss on the head, she brought her head up and I knew it was time to go solo. “Just one more minute,” I pleaded, pushing her head back down on my cock. “Mmf, just a lil more” she managed with her mouth around my dick. His hand clamped over her crotch, and she was instantly glad that she hadn't worn panties. She wanted this to happen soon, and less clothing made that easier. “Allow me to show you what it's like.” "Mmm bad boy, getting your big dick stiff from your Teacher punishing you" she barely whispered into my ear before licking along it and nibbling my ear lobe. It sent an electric shock through my head which only made me hotter, I wanted hear her talk even nastier to me. “Your tits, Anne.” We kept walking and I could see that Tracey’s skirt was fluttering all over the place and I assumed that mine was too, my skirt was made of a slightly lighter material so it should have been. "I guess not, sir." him into the air. Tommy had stayed after and snuck up on Dante and was now proceeding to play with his “I love you too honey, I’m really going for the full deal with you though. You wanted me to do this and I’m actually trying even though the whole school cheering thing seemed really stupid to me,” I tell her quietly. To my left, and past the corner of the fence, I heard the rustling noise again. I walked toward the sound, hoping no one would show up and catch me wandering nude through the yard. It was really dark, and I could barely see my own hands as I turned the corner and caught a brief shadow moving swiftly away from the house and toward the equipment barn in the rear. I didn’t see anything again, but remembered I had a clean pair of coveralls hanging in the barn and decided to retrieve them to wear back into the house. Both roll-up doors were down, so I opened the smaller personnel door on the right and stepped into the semi-darkness inside. I'm not gay or anything; I just like Jenny's penis. I sounded correct when I said it in my head, but if I said it out loud I feel like it would make a little less sense. "Megan, are you sure you want to go through with this?" “Sis, I’m cuming. Oh God, oh yes, nnnnnnnnnngh!” My prick began to spit large spurts of my steamy cum deep inside my sisters’ pussy. After about eight or nine spurts my cock was drained dry. Katie moaned and bit her lip, moisture beginning to drip from her cunt again, "What makes you think I'll let you? I don't date just anyone, I don't just fuck-" He continued, "Through the Fifties and Sixties, Bernhard's Hundred funded a Midwest Underground Railroad for minor SS and SD functionaries relocated to German communities across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois." “So, how do you pass it on?” Shannon asked after catching her breath. “So, like the picture, but interactive.” right my names daniel and this is the story about how me my friend jacob had a very good time with his brother joseph and his sister holly. “Can you have her call me when she gets back?” They head inside, and Maria shows him into the living room. He takes a seat on the sofa and Maria sits down beside him. "So... what happened?" 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2023.03.26 00:43 ChocoinKyoto My research on HSS vs ADHD
Research for this post:https://www.reddit.com/ADHD/comments/1223ofp/how_to_differentiate_thrill_seeking_from_adhd/?sort=new
“High sensation-seekers have lower levels of monoamine oxidase (MAO) type B, an enzyme involved in the regulation of neurotransmitters, particularly dopamine” (apa.org). ”HSS do not take risks just for the sake of risk. Instead, they take risks as a means to an end: to achieve their optimal level of stimulation”. Furthermore, in a study of Disinhibition, familial substance use disorders, and adolescent behavior, this was an outcome: “sensation seeking significantly mediated the effect of family history density of drug disorders on adolescent substance use, ADHD symptoms, and conduct problems”. And, “ studies do not consistently find relations between ADHD and sensation seeking (see e.g., Blaskey et al., 2008), more work is needed to understand the role of sensation seeking, or “bottom-up” reactive processes, in the development of ADHD” (Handley ED et al., nlm) And this study suggests that some traits related to high sensation seeking can predict positive responses to stimulants (White TL. Beyond Sensation Seeking).
NOTE: first study has a final edited version but it costs money and you need access thru an institution, last link is free.
Handley, E. D., Chassin, L., Haller, M. M., Bountress, K. E., Dandreaux, D., & Beltran, I. (2011). Do executive and reactive disinhibition mediate the effects of familial substance use disorders on adolescent externalizing outcomes?. Journal of abnormal psychology, 120(3), 528–542. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024162
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3166248/ (free vers.)
White T. L. (2017). Beyond Sensation Seeking: A Conceptual Framework for Individual Differences in Psychostimulant Drug Effects in Healthy Humans. Current opinion in behavioral sciences, 13, 63–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2016.10.008. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5244826/
Munsey, C. (2006, July 1). Frisky, but more risky. Monitor on Psychology, 37(7). https://www.apa.org/monitojulaug06/frisky
submitted by ChocoinKyoto to u/ChocoinKyoto [link] [comments]
“High sensation-seekers have lower levels of monoamine oxidase (MAO) type B, an enzyme involved in the regulation of neurotransmitters, particularly dopamine” (apa.org). ”HSS do not take risks just for the sake of risk. Instead, they take risks as a means to an end: to achieve their optimal level of stimulation”. Furthermore, in a study of Disinhibition, familial substance use disorders, and adolescent behavior, this was an outcome: “sensation seeking significantly mediated the effect of family history density of drug disorders on adolescent substance use, ADHD symptoms, and conduct problems”. And, “ studies do not consistently find relations between ADHD and sensation seeking (see e.g., Blaskey et al., 2008), more work is needed to understand the role of sensation seeking, or “bottom-up” reactive processes, in the development of ADHD” (Handley ED et al., nlm) And this study suggests that some traits related to high sensation seeking can predict positive responses to stimulants (White TL. Beyond Sensation Seeking).
NOTE: first study has a final edited version but it costs money and you need access thru an institution, last link is free.
Handley, E. D., Chassin, L., Haller, M. M., Bountress, K. E., Dandreaux, D., & Beltran, I. (2011). Do executive and reactive disinhibition mediate the effects of familial substance use disorders on adolescent externalizing outcomes?. Journal of abnormal psychology, 120(3), 528–542. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0024162
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3166248/ (free vers.)
White T. L. (2017). Beyond Sensation Seeking: A Conceptual Framework for Individual Differences in Psychostimulant Drug Effects in Healthy Humans. Current opinion in behavioral sciences, 13, 63–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2016.10.008. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5244826/
Munsey, C. (2006, July 1). Frisky, but more risky. Monitor on Psychology, 37(7). https://www.apa.org/monitojulaug06/frisky
2023.03.26 00:39 Upstairs-Locksmith41 Camaro Maintenance
Bought a 2022 Manual Camaro SS at 10 miles. It now has 5k miles on it, wondering if I’ve missed any maintenance? Any recommended maintenance at this point? Also first time with a manual. I’ve noticed when cold, it’s hard to shift. Should I change the Transmission fluid? If so, how often, and any recommendations for fluid?
submitted by Upstairs-Locksmith41 to camaro [link] [comments]
2023.03.25 17:27 Party-Novel5048 New to The Show and have some questions
Hey guys had a few problems and was wondering if the community could answer! Haven’t played the show since like 2016, I remember there being a meter for pitching and wheelhouse for hitting? I’ve been through the setting a couple of time to see if there where options for it but can’t seem to find it?
Second question, I made two RTTS players (SS first then a Pitcher) when I go to load in my SS to play again it says “ball player conflict” and to continue using this save file I need to create a new player or change to one that matches? Then kicks me back to the menu!
Any info on these is much appreciated!!
submitted by Party-Novel5048 to MLBTheShow [link] [comments]
Second question, I made two RTTS players (SS first then a Pitcher) when I go to load in my SS to play again it says “ball player conflict” and to continue using this save file I need to create a new player or change to one that matches? Then kicks me back to the menu!
Any info on these is much appreciated!!
2023.03.25 16:58 Connect_Pension3694 Spousal Social Security based on disability payments
I received SSDI in 2010 based on an injury. Let's say the amount was $1200/mo. I married in 2016 but spouse is from another country and won't get enough quarters for his own SS, but has paid into SS for 7 years. Even if we wait 3 more years to have enough quarters of earnings his amount would be very low. We are trying to figure spousal SS. The online calculators don't say what my PIA amount is, or was, and don't give spousal benefit information that I could find. I only know my disability amount for my first year of benefits. Is the PIA amount the same as the SSDI benefit amount? That is, can I estimate that, for this scenario, the spousal benefit would be $600 a month at the the spouse's Full Retirement Age?
submitted by Connect_Pension3694 to personalfinance [link] [comments]
2023.03.25 16:40 BallScraggs Always wanted a WRX STI, but having second thoughts since I can get a new Scat Pack/Mustang GT/Camaro SS for the same price?
I live in the northeast where snow is a factor, I love the sound of a Subaru and have done tons of research on the faults of the car. I think I would be really happy with one, but am afraid I will regret it when the engine goes pop.
I really like the looks and feel of a mustang GT with performance package, and the sound and drive is fantastic. The challenger is super comfortable and big (which is great for me and my fiancé who are both pretty tall) and obviously the looks are great. The Camaro isn't my favorite to look at, and visibility is ass, but it was a hoot to drive.
All in all, I am strongly leaning toward a mustang GT or Challenger Scat Pack, although I am not sure I want a mustang when everyone on planet earth seems to own one.
I've found gripes with every car and am unsure which one I should pull the trigger on.
Which one has better resale? Which one is the most fun? Which is the most reliable?
submitted by BallScraggs to whatcarshouldIbuy [link] [comments]
I really like the looks and feel of a mustang GT with performance package, and the sound and drive is fantastic. The challenger is super comfortable and big (which is great for me and my fiancé who are both pretty tall) and obviously the looks are great. The Camaro isn't my favorite to look at, and visibility is ass, but it was a hoot to drive.
All in all, I am strongly leaning toward a mustang GT or Challenger Scat Pack, although I am not sure I want a mustang when everyone on planet earth seems to own one.
I've found gripes with every car and am unsure which one I should pull the trigger on.
Which one has better resale? Which one is the most fun? Which is the most reliable?
2023.03.25 15:57 ywfbewrmkv 😘👉👌 IF YOU TAP YOU WILL CUM 🍆💦
 | IF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMIF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMIF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMhttps://i.redd.it/p0c78rg8gwpa1.gif14 comments var pager = {"objects":[" Anonymous readerReport<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n |
2023.03.25 15:57 qyeuywfwlw 😘👉👌 IF YOU TAP YOU WILL CUM 🍆💦
 | submitted by qyeuywfwlw to fxa5brfe8u [link] [comments] IF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMIF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMIF YOU TAP HERE YOU WILL CUMhttps://i.redd.it/pkbhy965gwpa1.gifJune 7, 2010 Dear diary, The days grow warmer and so does his touch. All I feel is too much to explain. I can’t find the words to express it; not to you, not to even him. It’s funny, as of late I feel like I have grown closer to him than to you. How this is possible I have yet to see. I pray nightly that I won’t wake up from this dreamland. He means so much to me… It was the summer of 2008. I had just turned 16 in May and purchased my first car: a worn, but still beautiful, 1978 Camaro. My dad and I planned to restore it in the coming years, and the final project in turn it would become my graduation present. This summer, as always, my family and I were on vacation in a small beach town in Florida. I woke up early that morning and decided to try running along the smooth sandy beach while the weather was still somewhat cool. I am not much of a runner, but I do like to keep active. It does help having strong, long legs, though. Well, it does now. Back then when your body is still developing it doesn’t completely understand itself. It’s like giving a child a Ferrari. They can make it go, but the handling and technique is probably not perfect. Anyhow, all that to say that morning I decided to run down the coast at sunrise. About a mile down the beach, as the sun was peeking over the trees, I saw a girl about my age slowly walking in the sand. The slight breeze in her long blond curls, the way her soft white dress fluttered like the waves, the way she shuffled her feet in the sand by the water…I was sure I was in love. As I approached, she looked up at me and smiled as she tucked a loose strand of hair behind her ear, the sun setting fire like the diamonds in her ears to her royal blue eyes. I was tantalized, drawn in like a bug to a light. She giggled and whispered hello, shuffling her feet. I just stared, speechless, reminding myself never to run again because I clearly died trying. This angel laughed, her eyes, though I swear it impossible, sparkled even more as she spoke, her voice soft and sweet, “Oh boys…” she walked closer to me, picking up her dress a bit to keep it from being splashed by the few incoming waves. “Well, hi,” she said, extending a hand, with the other she brushed her curls to the side. “H-H-Hello,” I finally managed to stutter after what seemed like ages. “Wow…” I jumped, not realizing that came out, though in a whisper, I swore she heard me. “You have a name don’t you?” she said, as I shook her hand, my eyes never leaving hers. “Uhhh…oh… I’m Caleb,” I said softly, slowly finding confidence in the fact that this angel appeared to like me. That thought sent a huge grin across my face. We talked for a few hours, both of us walking along the beach. Her name is Halie. She lives here on the beach. We spent that week together, and after I left, I kept in touch every day through some method. We started as friends, but by the end of that week I knew I was in love. A month after I left, we went back. After the second night reunited, I finally found the courage to kiss her cheek. “Oh? Is that all I get?” she asked, clearly disappointed. Her hands on her hips, the moonlight casting shadows on her face, adding to the comical dramatic stance. I, shaking, leaned in, my lips meeting hers, my first kiss. Nothing felt as great. Her lips, soft, sweet, my hand slowly tracing her cheek. My heart raced, knowing there was never a moment I felt more. She gripped my hand, stood on her toes and kissed me once more, quickly, softly, with a smile. “I had to make sure I remembered it right,” she winked. She let go of my hand as she turned to walk away. “Goodnight Caleb. My Caleb.” That night I lay in bed, unable to move, paralyzed in the reliving of that first kiss. I called her every weekend, and finally, at Christmas, got to see her again. My summer love, the one girl I thought of all semester. Her parents were fighting, and see moved in with her grandparents about 45 minutes from me. I was ecstatic. We spent the next year constantly together. I, now 17, her birthday in two months, had never been happier. February 15, 2010 Dear diary, Sorry I didn’t write last night. Caleb and I went out. How did I find such a perfect man? We had dinner. He was so respectful. On the way home...we were in an accident. Someone ran through a light and could have killed me. Instead he sacrificed the car, his pride and joy, for me. He was so willing to put himself in danger. To give up his most prized thing in an attempt to save my life. I can’t hold back much longer. I know he loves me. I love him. He’s kind. Caring. Protective. He’s the sweetest guy to little kids, and I know he’ll be an amazing father. And those muscles…he’s been working out. His hair, well, I’ve managed to straighten it out with as much as I’ve run my fingers through it. You should have seen him in those jeans he wore. I’m still drooling… It was Fall, now two years since we met. wWe both sat on the porch of the cabin wrapped in a blanket. I reached into my pocket, her head on my shoulder and pulled out a small box. It took everything I had, and was all mine. With what lay inside, I hoped its wearer would be also. I opened the box and a small, white diamond appeared. She looked from me, to the box, tears forming. Her arms wrapped tightly around my neck. If thought before she was a good kisser, I now KNOW she is. October 16, 2010 Dear diary, This is my last moment as a bachelorette I suppose you could call it. In a few hours, I marry Caleb. SO many things to write. Where do I begin? His eyes? How about his hair. Start at the top and work down I suppose… The feeling of seeing your bride in white walking down the aisle is beyond any form of written description. I don’t generally get too emotional, but I’ll be honest and say yes, I cried. The beauty on the beach was no match for the elegant woman before me. The way the dress clung to her thin waist, the way her hair twisted to her shoulders from the up-do beneath the veil. The only time she was more beautiful than this was that night. I carried her into the place of our honeymoon, a surprise to her. I managed to buy the house in front of the spot we first met. She kissed me, this time knowing neither of us had to hold back. My left hand on her waist, with my right I unpinned her long curls, each falling gracefully around her pink cheeks. I kiss her softly on the lips; she kisses back, our tongues tickling the others. My hands run down her back slowly, tracking her spine, sending shivers throughout her body as I unzip the heavy dress. Her hands fumble as she unbuttons my shirt, and then trace my abs, tickling me. I laugh and pull her in for another kiss. “I love you” I say in between each kiss. I kiss down her neck, slowly making my way to her breast. She lets out a sigh. “I’ve waited for so long,” she whispers grabbing my arm, pulling me back up for a long deep kiss. Her dress falls, as do the rest of my clothes. We both stand there for a moment, then embrace, kissing. Again, I kiss down her body. First her neck, then her breasts, both of them, then caress them as I tickle her stomach with soft kisses. I continue lower and lower. Her back arches, she twists, giggling with pleasure. “Stop it Caleb!! Hahaha” she flips me on my back and we tussle, our bodies rubbing together, the urge to become one growing ever stronger. We tussle once more and I end up on my back. She straddles me, sitting on my bare stomach, pinning my arms to my side. I grin. “Ok. You win.” I saw and wink. Laying there, staring at her naked body. So perfect. So soft. So turned on by her wild side I had only seen a glimpse of in the past. She grins seductively and bites her lip. Her left hand frees mine and she walks her fingers up my chest. With her short manicured nails she tickles my lip, and then runs down my side, past my butt, and down my leg, tickling my toes. Halie slides down so her body is pressed down onto mine. “You ready big guy?” she laughs, knowing I’m completely blown away. I roll on top of her, tangling my leg in the sheets. She explores my body, stopping at my groin. A few moments later, I slip gently in and let out a long sigh as my hands support her arching back. She moans and clenches my arm. It’s the first time for both of us. The sensations shooting through our bodies, seemingly as one, with each movement. I caress her breasts as she squeezes my firm, round rear. Between soft moans our tongues fight, passionately trying to win its way into the other’s territory. We roll, I on my back, hands pinned down. She sits up to resume. My left hand rests behind my head, the right traces down her smooth stomach. It slides around her hip, supporting her back, caressing her soft rear. I lean up to kiss her. 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2023.03.25 15:50 tftsjtjqjv 😘👉👌 IF YOU TAP YOU WILL CUM 🍆💦
2023.03.25 15:36 wiredog369 Rear Diff Oil Recommendations
75w-85? 75w-90? 75w-140? What is everyone using in their rear differential?
I don’t tow/haul or off-road a lot, but she also is far from a mall princess.
2016 CM SR5 5.7l 4wd with LSD running 35” tires and level kit.
Edit: Located in Northern Kentucky.
submitted by wiredog369 to tundra [link] [comments]
I don’t tow/haul or off-road a lot, but she also is far from a mall princess.
2016 CM SR5 5.7l 4wd with LSD running 35” tires and level kit.
Edit: Located in Northern Kentucky.
2023.03.25 14:30 Wickafckaflame Here's what 1500 coins in a row looks like on 2x drop rate..
 | 6 cars ain't bad, but cmon all dupes?? submitted by Wickafckaflame to AssolutoRacing [link] [comments] |
2023.03.25 12:03 hhervey Best most affordable side skirts and front lip? Best website to buy from?
What's the best website to buy sides skirts and a front lip for a 2019 camaro ss? Looking for something affordable in the $150-$250 range
submitted by hhervey to camaro [link] [comments]
2023.03.25 11:55 plainenglish2 “Mr. Sunshine” (historical and cultural backgrounders for international viewers)
 | submitted by plainenglish2 to KDRAMA [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/nqqzlwsquupa1.jpg?width=450&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0fe1d516db52f58be33b48233abaf3e422984c5d Index: Introduction (Eugene’s music box, Greensleeves, What Child Is This, Genshin Impact’s Dawn Winery theme); A. Ep. 1: Battle of Gangwha Island; The Joseon general’s flag (“Sujagi”) during the Battle of Gangwha Island; B. Ep. 2: “Operation Fox Hunt” (Eulmi Incident; assassination of Queen Min); Battle of El Caney; Ep. 2 introduces us to (1) King Gojong’s fondness for coffee; (2) “Glory Hotel” which will become the setting for numerous scenes in later episodes; (3) the advent of electricity in Joseon; and (4) street cars in the latter part of the Joseon Dynasty; C. Ep. 3: “The Baby Riots of 1888”; Dong-mae and the “baekchong” (the most despised group of people during the Joseon Dynasty); D. Ep. 4: Ae-shin enrolls in the English school; How Joseon Koreans learned English; E. Ep. 7: “Patbingsu” (literally “red beans shaved ice”), a popular Korean shaved ice dessert with sweet toppings; F. Ep. 9: Eugene’s confession to Ae-shin; slavery during the Joseon Dynasty; Three major events happened in Korea in 1894; G. Ep. 13: How American missionaries helped King Gojong; the controversial Horace Allen Newton, the American medical missionary who became US ambassador to Joseon Korea; H. Ep. 18: The most-talked about scene of “Mr. Sunshine” when Dong-mae cuts off Ae-shin’s hair; the Confucian prohibition against cutting off a person’s hair during the Joseon Dynasty; I. Ep. 22: “Battle of Namdaemun” (1907); Eugene meets Ahn Changho (aka An Chang-ho), a Korean independence activist and one of the early leaders of the Korean-American immigrant community in the United States; J. Ep. 24: Frederick Arthur McKenzie, the journalist who interviewed the Righteous Army; K. Miscellaneous: Are Eugene, Lee Wan-ik, Ae-shin, Dong-mae, and Kudo Hina fictional characters, or are they based on historical figures? (The Korea Herald and Korea JoongAng Daily); Treaties and agreements mentioned in this drama; Black Dragon Society (referred to in later episodes of the drama as “Musin Society”); Ae-shin’s headdresses; Why did Dong-mae have paintings of plum blossoms on his scabbards? Introduction (Eugene’s music box, Greensleeves, What Child Is This, Genshin Impact’s Dawn Winery theme) Ep. 18 of “Mr. Sunshine” had just been aired when I decided to catch up before the series ended. I did catch up, bingeing Eps. 1-18 in just a little over a week. Besides the emotional impact of Yoo-jin’s escape from Joseon, what resonated with me most in Ep. 1 are the scenes with the music box because I’ve always been fascinated with music boxes. When I heard the tune from the music box in Ep. 1, what came to my mind was the Christmas song “What Child Is This.” It was only later on that I found out that the tune was actually “Greensleeves.” Several months ago, Band-Maid (an all female Japanese band) released their rock version of the “Dawn Winery” theme from the popular online game Genshin Impact. Almost immediately, people began debating whether the “Dawn Winery” theme was inspired (copied?) from Greensleeves or the Christmas song “What Child Is This.” Questions for those of you who are knowledgeable in music: Were “What Child Is This” and the “Dawn Winery” theme from Genshin Impact inspired (copied?) from Greensleeves? Or did these three songs just happen to have some similar notes or chords, and are actually different from each other? A. Ep. 1: Battle of Gangwha Island; The Joseon general’s flag (“Sujagi”) during the Battle of Gangwha Island A-1. Battle of Gangwha Island: “The Battle of Ganghwa was fought during the conflict between Joseon and the United States in 1871. In May, an expedition of five Asiatic Squadron warships set sail from Japan to Korea in order to establish trade relations, ensure the safety of shipwrecked sailors, and to find out what happened to the crew of the SS General Sherman. When American forces arrived in Korea, the originally peaceful mission turned into a battle when guns from a Korean fort suddenly opened fire on the Americans. The battle to capture Ganghwa Island’s forts was the largest engagement of the conflict.” Battle of Ganghwa (Ep. 1 , “Mr. Sunshine”) Koreans who died in fighting in Gwanseong Garrison; Albumen silver print by Felice Beato (New World Encyclopedia) A-2. The Joseon general’s flag (“Sujagi”) during the Battle of Gangwha Island “After 136 years, the rank flag of General Eo Jae-yeon (1823-1871) was returned to the South Korean Cultural Heritage Administration. The flag is on loan from the U.S. Naval Academy Museum, which has had possession. The flag was captured as a war trophy in 1871, when the U.S. Expedition to Korea captured the flag in 1871 when American troops seized Ganghwa Island. Read also “General’s Flag Returns Home From US” (The Korea Times, 2007). Battle of Gangwha Island (Ep. 1, “Mr. Sunshine”) “Sujagi” captured as war trophy by US troops https://preview.redd.it/btiohmt4wupa1.jpg?width=450&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7a8eb2bdc8efd48ae80a6bf5c7b1b4dc20c21dd3 B. Ep. 2: “Operation Fox Hunt” (Eulmi Incident; assassination of Queen Min); Battle of El Caney; Ep. 2 introduces us to (1) King Gojong’s fondness for coffee; (2) “Glory Hotel” which will become the setting for numerous scenes in later episodes; (3) the advent of electricity in Joseon; and (4) street cars in the latter part of the Joseon Dynasty B-1. In Ep. 2, Ae-shin’s grandfather warns her about what happened to the late Queen Min. In Ep. 4, Lord Ito Hirobumi mentions to Lee Wan-ik the phrase “Operation Fox Hunt.” Otherwise referred to as the “Eulmi Incident,” this refers to the assassination of King Gojong’s wife, Queen Min (formally “Empress Myeongseong”) on October 8, 1895, by a band of about 50 Japanese swordsmen. From Wikipedia: “The government of Meiji Japan considered Empress Myeongseong an obstacle to its overseas expansion. Efforts to remove her from the political arena, orchestrated through failed rebellions prompted by the father of King Gojong, the Heungseon Daewongun (an influential regent working with the Japanese), compelled her to take a harsher stand against Japanese influence.” B-2. The Spanish-American War erupts, and Eugene and Major Kyle Moore are thrown into the fierce battle of El Caney. The Battle of El Caney was fought on July 1, 1898, during the Spanish-American War. 600 Spanish soldiers held for twelve hours, until they ran out of ammunition, against Henry W. Lawton’s 5th US Division, made up of 6,899 men. This action temporarily delayed the American advance on the San Juan Hills, as had been requested of General William Rufus Shafter. Nevertheless, American forces advanced on San Juan Hill the same day. Though encountering spirited resistance similar to El Caney, the Americans were ultimately victorious, culminating in the capitulation of the Spanish garrison. Battle of El Caney (Ep. 2, “Mr. Sunshine”) The capture of El Caney (Christy) B-3. Ep. 2 introduces us to (1) King Gojong’s fondness for coffee; (2) “Glory Hotel” which will become the setting for numerous scenes in later episodes; (3) the advent of electricity in Joseon; and (4) street cars in the latter part of the Joseon Dynasty (1) King Gojong’s fondness for coffee Coffee is frequently mentioned throughout this drama. In history, King Gojong did have a fondness for coffee. Most sources say that he came to know about coffee during his 1896 stay at the Russian embassy. But historian Robert D. Neff proves in “Koreans, coffee and the king’s court” (Jeju Weekly) that coffee was known and served in Joseon’s royal court even before 1896. King Gojong’s fondness for coffee provided the means for an assassination attempt against him and the Crown Prince. This is the historical basis for the 2012 movie “Gabi” aka “Russian Coffee” starring Park Hee-soon (as King Gojong), Kim So-yeon, and Joo Jin-mo (he played the role of Wang Yu in “Empress Ki”). (2) “Glory Hotel” is the setting for numerous scenes in Ep. 2 and later episodes. In the article “Korea’s first foreign hotels in 1880s Jemulpo” by Robert Neff (The Korea Times) , historian and longtime Seoul resident Robert Neff describes several famous hotels during the 1880s, namely, “Hotel de Corea” (aka “Steinbeck’s Hotel”), “Harry’s Hotel,” “Sea View Hotel,” and “Daibuts Hotel.” (3) From “Electricity Sends Sparks Flying in Joseon Korea” by Robert Neff: “When electricity was first introduced, many superstitious people believed that the electricity angered the spirits and blamed all their misfortunes, including droughts and famines, upon this Western introduction. As time passed electricity became more accepted and was used to illuminate not only the palace and Western homes but also the streets of Seoul. However, superstitions did not die easily.” (4) Street cars are a recurring sight in this drama; they first appear in Ep. 2 when a street car passes between Ae-shin and Eugene. Other examples: in Ep. 11, Ae-shin, Hee-sung, and Gu Dong-mae meet on a street car; in Ep. 22, from a street car, Kudo Hina shoots at the Japanese soldiers during the “Battle of Nandaemun.” From “History: The Introduction of Street Cars” by Robert Neff : “One of the earliest modernizations to Seoul was the introduction of streetcars in 1899 by an American company. It was heralded by many people as a symbol of modernization and prosperity. But not all viewed the streetcars with anticipation and delight. Korea was suffering from a severe drought and many superstitious people thought that the streetcars were to be blamed.” In his article, Neff also narrates how Koreans rioted after a child was run over by a street car, and the street car service was suspended for several weeks when the Japanese drivers refused to go back to work. The problem was solved when the company that owned the street cars hired Americans known as the “California House” — “a rough group of cow punchers, gamblers, bartenders and even a professional gunslinger who later got into trouble for shooting the topknots off of Korean pedestrians.” https://preview.redd.it/0ncwrfjwxupa1.jpg?width=450&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc6864e2ee7c702553d5f3594313218726d892e5 C. Ep. 3: “The Baby Riots of 1888”; Dong-mae and the “baekchong” (the most despised group of people during the Joseon Dynasty) C-1. After Ae-shin’s altercation with the rowdy Japanese sergeant, she and her servants see American soldiers boarding the train; her servant Haman says that Americans eat people. She’s referring to a historical incident known as “The Baby Riots of 1888.” From “The Baby Riots of 1888” (Wikipedia citing “Korea Through Western Eyes” by Robert D. Neff, 2009): “The Baby Riots of 1888 took place in the summer of 1888 in Joseon Korea. Rumours circulated that foreigners in Seoul were kidnapping young Korean infants and children, gouging out their eyes for use as camera lenses, grinding their internal organs for use in medicine, and eating them. These rumours implicated both the western powers that were present in Korea at the time, as well as the Japanese. These riots saw Koreans gathering outside hospitals, schools and churches run by foreigners to rail against the ‘baby-snatchers’ inside. Many in the foreign community were alarmed by the ferocity of the riots and made preparations to leave Korea, and diplomatic representatives of the foreign legations pressed the Joseon government to repudiate the rumours, which they did reluctantly.” C-2. Dong-mae and the “baekchong” (the most despised group of people during the Joseon Dynasty) Ep. 3 provides Dong-mae’s back story of his parents being “baekchong” (alternative spelling “paekchong”) and how he returned to Joseon as the feared leader of Japanese gangsters. For more information about the “baekchong,” please read my discussion titled Origins of the “baekchong” (the most despised people during the Joseon Dynasty); dramas where a lead character is a baekchong). D. Ep. 4: Ae-shin enrolls in the English school; How Joseon Koreans learned English Historian Robert D. Neff in “Learning English in the 1880s, A glimpse into the history of learning English in Korea” tells us how Koreans first came to learn English: “In 1882—just prior to Korea opening to the West—Koreans who desired to learn English had to travel to Japan.” From “Impact of English on late Joseon” (The Korea Times): King Gojong, the 26th king of Joseon, was the first to establish a school for English. A palace school named “Yugyoung Gongwon” (royal English school) was established in 1883 with an American missionary, Homer B. Hulbert, and three other missionaries. E. Ep. 7: “Patbingsu” (literally “red beans shaved ice”), a popular Korean shaved ice dessert with sweet toppings On their way to the English school, Ae-shin and her servant stop by at the French bakery and order some “bingsu.” From Wikipedia: The early forms of “patbingsu” consisted of shaved ice and two or three ingredients, typically red bean paste, “tteok,” and ground nut powder. The earliest forms of “patbingsu” existed during the Joseon Dynasty (1392-1910). Government records show officials sharing crushed ice topped with various fruits. F. Ep. 9: Eugene’s confession to Ae-shin; slavery during the Joseon Dynasty; Three major events happened in Korea in 1894 F-1. Ep. 9: Eugene’s confession to Ae-shin; slavery during the Joseon Dynasty From “Jejoongwon, Part 1: The History”: During the Joseon Dynasty, society was divided into four castes, with the “yangban” (nobles) as the highest caste. The lowest caste was “chonmin” that consisted of slaves, convicts, shamans, entertainers (such as gisaengs and storytellers), and butchers. From “Korea, The Politics of the Vortex” (1968) by Gregory Henderson: The “despised people” (chonmin) consisted of private and public slaves, shamans, buffoons, traveling dancers, singers, Buddhist monks and nuns, and butchers. From “Nobi: Rescuing the Nation from Slavery” (The Korea Times): One of the interesting aspects of pre-modern Korean history is the existence of a huge number of slaves, perhaps averaging 30% or perhaps 40% of the population for the Chosŏn dynasty. F-2. Three major events happened in Korea in 1894 (The Korea Times): Slavery, hereditary social status, discrimination against widows and concubines, and many other forms of determining social privilege were legally abolished. G. Ep. 13: How American missionaries helped King Gojong; the controversial Horace Allen Newton, the American medical missionary who became US ambassador to Joseon Korea In Ep. 13, King Gojong and Minister Lee Jeong-mun use an American missionary as their intermediary. In previous episodes, we meet Horace Newton Allen, the American ambassador to Joseon Korea, where he’s presented as a weak administrator and a corrupt official who accepted a bribe from Lee Wan-ik (to stop Eugene’s investigation into missionary Joseph’s death). He’s referred to as being a doctor, but the drama (as far as I can recall) doesn’t mention him even once as a Presbyterian medical missionary. In fact, as part of his missionary activities, Allen founded Jejoongwon, which is now the ultramodern Severance Hospital. Severance Hospital ispart of Yonsei University, which is one of the top three universities in Korea. Top: Replica of Jejoongwon’s original structure; Bottom: Severance Hospital For a much-more favorable portrayal of Horace Newton Allen, watch the 2010 drama “Jejoongwon” starring Han Hye-jin (she played Sosuhno in “Jumong”). Although not a big hit, “Jejoongwon” is a favorite among knowledgeable and credible websites like Dramabeans, Thundie’s Prattle, The Talking Cupboard, Electric Ground, and Korean Historical Dramas. From “The Legacy of Horace Newton Allen” by Wi Jo Kang (Theological Seminary in Dubuque, Iowa): The main enemy of Korean independence, as Allen rightly perceived, was the growth of Japanese power. Allen constantly warned his government that expanding Japanese power was the greatest threat to world peace. From “Providence and Politics: Horace N. Allen and the Early US-Korea Encounter, 1884-1894” by Andrea Yun Kwon (University of California, Berkeley): Few names are more recognizable to students of early American-Korean relations than that of Horace Newton Allen. And for good reason. During the twenty years the angular, bespectacled physician from Ohio lived in Chosŏn Korea, he supervised the kingdom’s first Western- style hospital and medical school, cultivated close ties with the monarch, helped secure gold mining and other concessions for American business, played a central role in Korean migration to Hawaii, and, for nearly a decade, served as the United States ambassador in Seoul. As historian Wayne Patterson summarizes, “In the one hundred years since Korea was opened to the West no foreigner became more involved in Korea’s affairs than Horace Allen.H. Ep. 18: The most-talked about scene of “Mr. Sunshine” when Dong-mae cuts off Ae-shin’s hair; the Confucian prohibition against cutting off a person’s hair during the Joseon Dynasty Perhaps the most-talked about scene of “Mr. Sunshine” is in Ep. 18 when Dong-mae cuts off Ae-shin’s hair, which is in the “daeng’gi meori” style of unmarried Joseon women. Finding out later on in Ep. 19 what Dong-mae did, Lord Go beats him repeatedly and warns him to stay away from Ae-shin or else be punished the way that butchers are punished under Joseon laws; Eugene goes to challenge him; and Hee-sung punches him repeatedly. Ae-shin, meanwhile, cries in shame as her grandfather comes to see her. Why did Ae-shin, Lord Go, Eugene, and Hee-sung react the way that they did? Simply stated, Confucianism, which is the foundation of the Joseon Dynasty, prohibited the cutting of a person’s hair because it is part of a person’s legacy from his or her parents. From Wikipedia: “The Classic of Filial Piety, also known by its Chinese name as the Xiaojing, is a Confucian classic treatise giving advice on filial piety: that is, how to behave towards a senior such as a father, an elder brother, or ruler.” The Classic of Filial Piety states: “Our bodies ― to every hair and bit of skin ― are received by us from our parents, and we must not presume to injure or wound them. This is the beginning of filial piety.” Ae-shin herself states in Ep. 19 (around the 4:41 mark) how she regarded her hair: “We all live in different worlds, and each cherishes different things. In my world, Joseon, my family, and my hair given by my parents are all dear to me.” Perhaps the clearest illustration for the implications of cutting off a person’s hair comes from Ep. 19 of the 2011 drama “The Princess’s Man” where Se-ryung cuts off her hair to signify that she is cutting off her ties with her father King Sejo, aka Grand Prince Suyang. https://i.redd.it/9otvuwb5yupa1.gif But the prohibition against cutting off a person’s hair also applied to Joseon men. It was said that Joseon men would rather die than have their topknot (“sangtu”) cut off; the topknot was their symbol of manhood, and in history, King Gojong’s first order to have the topknots cut off was rescinded. In Ep. 1, why did the young Yoo-jin cut off his hair? It’s to signify his complete break with Joseon as he has then decided to join the American military. In Episode 7 of the 2014 drama “The Joseon Gunman,” Park Yoon-kang cuts off his topknot to signify that he was cutting off his ties to Joseon and embracing his Japanese identity.) In the last part of Episode 17 and the start of Episode 18 of “Jejoongwon” (2010), Baek Do-yang cuts off his topknot to symbolize that he is cutting off his ties to his noble status. Upon reaching manhood or upon getting married, a Joseon nobleman or scholar pulled his hair to the top and tied it into a topknot called “sangtu.” A headband called “manggeon” was used to hold the hair in place. Joseon commoners and slaves also used a topknot called “minsangtu” but without a headband. For more information, surf to “A Guide to Joseon Hairstyles and Headgears” (The Talking Cupboard). I. Ep. 22: “Battle of Namdaemun” (1907); Eugene meets Ahn Changho (aka An Chang-ho), a Korean independence activist and one of the early leaders of the Korean-American immigrant community in the United States I-1. The last 15 minutes of Episode 22 depict the “Battle of Namdaemun” that took place on August 1, 1907 after the Joseon military was disbanded. From Wikipedia: “Namdaemun (South Great Gate), officially known as the Sungnyemun, Gate of Exalted Ceremonies, is one of the Eight Gates in the Fortress Wall of Seoul, South Korea, which surrounded the city in the Joseon dynasty. The gate is located in Jung-gu between Seoul Station and Seoul Plaza, with the historic 24-hour Namdaemun market next to the gate. Battle of Namdaemun (Wikipedia): “The 1st Battalion Commander Major Park Sung-hwan (1869-1907), wrote a note on a paper and committed suicide by shooting himself. The note said that he was against the disbandment of the armed forces. Battle of Namdaemun from French newspaper I-2. After he’s released from prison, Eugene meets Ahn Changho (aka An Chang-ho), a Joseon scholar who asked him for directions to Columbia University. From Wikipedia: Ahn Changho was a Korean independence activist and one of the early leaders of the Korean-American immigrant community in the United States. J. Ep. 24: Frederick Arthur McKenzie, the journalist who interviewed the Righteous Army Frederick Arthur McKenzie, the journalist who interviewed the Righteous Army in Ep. 24, is a historical character. For more information, read “McKenzie, journalist who delved into Korean justice” (The Korea Herald). His book “The Tragedy of Korea,” published in 1908, is freely available in various formats in the Project Gutenberg website. Excerpt from the Korea Herald article: “Frederick Arthur McKenzie is remembered by Koreans as a true, brave journalist whose reporting and writing during the early 20th century helped expose Koreans’ sufferings under the rule of Imperial Japan. His writings and photos remain precious records of Korea’s turbulent history. Top picture from “Mr. Sunshine”; bottom picture from Frederick Arthur McKenzie’s book K. Miscellaneous: Are Eugene, Lee Wan-ik, Ae-shin, Dong-mae, and Kudo Hina fictional characters or based on historical figures?; Treaties and agreements mentioned in this drama; Black Dragon Society (referred to in later episodes of the drama as “Musin Society”); Ae-shin’s headdresses; Why did Dong-mae have paintings of plum blossoms on his scabbards? K-1. Are Eugene, Lee Wan-ik, Ae-shin, Dong-mae, and Kudo Hina fictional characters, or are they based on historical figures? (The Korea Herald and Korea JoongAng Daily) From ‘Mr. Sunshine’ offers ray of hope with mesmerizing fantasy (The Korea Herald): Eugene Choi appears to be the product of wishful imagination inspired by US naval attache George Foulke, who spoke Korean, explored various parts of the country, and even understood the political intrigues between factions in Joseon’s court that were influenced by China and Japan at the time. The Korea Herald article also says that antagonist Lee Wan-ik is based on "Ye Wan-yong, a pro-Japanese minister of Korea who signed the Japan Korea Annexation Treaty which placed Korea under Japanese rule in 1910." Other sources such as Korea JoonAng Daily say that Ae-shin and Dong-mae are fictional characters (without mentioning Kudo Hina). Hina is depicted as a sophisticated woman who can speak Korean, Japanese, and English. She may have been inspired by an Austrian woman named “Hannah,” the sister-in-law of the owner of Steinbeck’s Hotel. Robert Neff in his article “Korea’s first foreign hotels in 1880s Jemulpo” by Robert Neff (The Korea Times) describes Hannah as a “very fascinating young lady, a most accomplished damsel, who could speak fluently every language under the sun — from Turkish and Arabic to Corean and Japanese.” K-2. Treaties and agreements mentioned in “Mr. Sunshine” Japan-Korea Treaty of 1904 K-3. Black Dragon Society (referred to in later episodes of the drama as “Musin Society”) Dong-mae is depicted as the leader of a Japanese gang operating in Joseon, which is affiliated with the Black Dragon Society (referred to in later episodes as “Musin Society”). From Wikipedia: The Black Dragon Society (“Kokuryūkai” or Amur River Society) was a prominent paramilitary, ultra-nationalist right-wing group in Japan. Note: "Bridal Mask" aka "Gaksital" is a 2012 drama starring Joo Won, Jin Se-yeon, and Shin Hyun-joon. Similar to "Mr. Sunshine," it’s set during the Japanese colonial rule in Korea. If "Mr. Sunshine" has its "Black Dragon Society" aka “Musin Society,” "Bridal Mask" has “Kishokai.” K-5. Ae-shin’s various headdresses “Jangot” (left); “Ayam” (right) On several occasions, Ae-shin wears a “jangot” (“changot”) to cover herself, like other noble women in Joseon as they went out in public. I discussed the “jangot” in my post about the historical and cultural backgrounders of "Mr. Queen." In Ep. 9 (end) and Ep. 10 (start), Ae-shin wears a traditional winter cap called “ayam”; it is also called “aegeom” which literally means “covering a forehead” in Korean. The “ayam” traditionally consist of a “mobu or” crown (open at the top) and a big ribbon (“deurim”). The tassel attached to the upper center of both front and back is mostly red in color and the strings connected from both sides are all flat braids. (Wikipedia) K-6. Why did Dong-mae have paintings of plum blossoms on his scabbards? A Japanese samurai carries two swords — the longer one, around 40 inches long, is called “katana,” while the shorter one, around 24 inches long, is called “wakizashi.” Dong-mae’s scabbards have paintings of plum blossoms. The name “Dong-mae” comes from “Dong” (winter) and “mae” (plum blossom). The meaning of his name (“the plum blossoms that bloom in winter”) may explain why plum blossoms are painted on his scabbards, as actor Yoo Yeon-seok explained in an interview. You can first glimpse these plums blossoms on his scabbards in Ep. 3 when he confronts the two Japanese men who were talking about molesting Ae-shin. We know from Ep. 15 that plum blossoms are the symbol of the Joseon monarchy. Could the plum blossoms on Dong-mae’s scabbards possibly symbolize that he has never given up on Joseon? I doubt that very much; Dong-mae belonged to the wretched “baekchong” sub-caste, and he had to escape to Japan after his parents were killed. Besides the plain meaning that the plum blossoms on Dong-mae’s scabbards represent his name, I believe that, based on several scenes from Eps. 6, 7, and 24, the plum blossoms represent Ae-shin or his love for Ae-shin. (1) In Ep. 24, starting at around the 30:47 mark, when Dong-mae looks at the plum blossoms, he remembers his tender moments with Ae-shin. (2) Starting at around the 1:51 mark of Ep. 6, Dong-mae confesses his love for Ae-shin. He tells Ae-shin that he became what he is (a samurai who’s working for the dreaded Musin Society) because it was the only way by which he could go back to Joseon and to her. Beginning at around the 3:52 mark of Ep. 6 mark, Dong-mae goes back home feeling dejected. He apologizes to Hotaru because he forgot the things that she wanted from the brush, ink, and paper store. Hotaru then writes “You’re an idiot” on Dong-mae’s right palm. (From Ep. 7 at around the 1:02:40 mark, we can deduce that Hotaru knows that Dong-mae was secretly watching Ae-shin every time that she went to the store.) As he walks away from Hotaru who slaps him lightly on the back, Dong-mae says, “That hurts.” We then see a close-up of the plum blossoms on one of his scabbards and, more significantly, a drop of water that trickles down, like a teardrop, from his scabbard. https://i.redd.it/m5wuda090vpa1.gif Joyce Landorf wrote many years ago a book titled "Tough and Tender; What Every Woman Wants in a Man." Tough and tender ... this perfectly describes who Dong-mae is; he’s a Japanese samurai/gangster who kills people in cold blood. But he’s also tender, with paintings of plum blossoms on his scabbards as symbols of his one true unrequited love, and whose heartache flows like a teardrop from his scabbard. https://preview.redd.it/0uw0vdr71vpa1.jpg?width=450&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7d9d044f39cd548bd3df18ac2e1bcfb102dff53a “Heartache flowing like a teardrop from his scabbard that’s painted with plum blossoms .... ” I love this sentimental stuff! Notes: (1) In digging up the historical and cultural backgrounders of the K-dramas that I watch, I rely on English language resources on the Internet. I don’t speak or read Korean, and so I can’t search through Naver. Those of you who read Korean or are more knowledgeable about Korean culture and history should correct whatever errors or omissions there may be in this discussion. (2) Some of the linked resources in this discussion are in PDF format. If you are using the latest version of Mozilla Firefox as your browser, it will give you the choice of viewing the PDF online instead of downloading it. (3) Other discussions that I have posted on the historical and cultural backgrounders of K-historical dramas: “Mr. Queen” (historical and cultural backgrounders for international viewers, with references to other K-dramas) “Hotel Del Luna” (some cultural backgrounders for international viewers) “The Princess’s Man” (award-winning 2011 drama starring Moon Chae-won and Park Si-hoo) “The Flower in Prison” (blockbuster 2016 drama starring Jin Se-yeon and Go-soo; 34 of its 51 episodes reached more than 20% viewership) “Jejoongwon” (2010 historical-medical drama starring Han Hye-jin, Yeon Jung-hoon, and Park Yong-woo; Dramabeans ranked this drama as number one in its review of 2010 dramas) “Haechi” (historical backgrounders) “Chinilpa” (mini history lesson from "Chicago Typewriter") Historical paintings depicted in "Saimdang, Light’s Diary" Historical backgrounders for “The Red Sleeve” (2021) and “Yi San” (2007) with parallels and differences between these dramas (4) This discussion is rather long and may be a bit boring for those of you who don’t like history. If you got tired reading this discussion, you can energize yourself by listening to Band-Maid’s performances during their 2022 USA tour. Band-Maid is an all-female Japanese band that mixes genres such as rock (hard, progressive, punk), metal, pop, jazz, and blues. Listen for example to “Freedom" (anthem; watch out for the drum solo); “Daydreaming" (power ballad; watch out for the lead guitar solo); “Wonderland” (rock-jazz-blues). |
2023.03.25 10:26 FormalSmoke Coming Soon: Nike Air Max 1 White University Red
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Coming Soon: Nike Air Max 1 White University Red
Expected to drop in the coming months, here is a first look at the Nike Air Max 1 White University Red.
Akin to the Nike Air Max 1 Chili that dropped close to twenty years ago, this pair is done in a White, University Red, Pure Platinum, and Black color scheme. Constructed in a mix of mesh, suede, and nubuck materials, what differentiates this pair from the Chile colorway is that it uses a lighter shade of Grey on the overlays while also having a reverse-colored tongue label. Other details include the Red bold Swooshes and Air bubbles, the Nike Air branding on the heels, a White midsole and two-tone Black and Light Grey rubber sole.
Retailing for $160, the Nike Air Max 1 White University Red has not been given an official release date, but current reports have them releasing in the coming months at select retailers and Nike.com. For a complete guide including official photos, release dates, pricing and where to buy, visit: Nike Air Max 1 White University Red.
In Jordan Brand news, are you feeling the upcoming Air Jordan 1 Low SE Tokyo Vintage?
images: long7ze
submitted by FormalSmoke to ShoeSneakerFashion [link] [comments]
Check out the Top Deals on Sneakers for Sale on Amazon!
Coming Soon: Nike Air Max 1 White University Red
Expected to drop in the coming months, here is a first look at the Nike Air Max 1 White University Red.
Akin to the Nike Air Max 1 Chili that dropped close to twenty years ago, this pair is done in a White, University Red, Pure Platinum, and Black color scheme. Constructed in a mix of mesh, suede, and nubuck materials, what differentiates this pair from the Chile colorway is that it uses a lighter shade of Grey on the overlays while also having a reverse-colored tongue label. Other details include the Red bold Swooshes and Air bubbles, the Nike Air branding on the heels, a White midsole and two-tone Black and Light Grey rubber sole.
Retailing for $160, the Nike Air Max 1 White University Red has not been given an official release date, but current reports have them releasing in the coming months at select retailers and Nike.com. For a complete guide including official photos, release dates, pricing and where to buy, visit: Nike Air Max 1 White University Red.
In Jordan Brand news, are you feeling the upcoming Air Jordan 1 Low SE Tokyo Vintage?
images: long7ze
2023.03.25 02:48 PolehammerSupremacy What other comparable cars am I missing from this list? Want to build it up before I narrow it down to the one.
 | submitted by PolehammerSupremacy to Autos [link] [comments] |
2023.03.25 01:42 dogryan100 A 2016 #9 Chevy SS with Chase Elliott branding at the Adelaide Motorsport Festival
 | submitted by dogryan100 to NASCAR [link] [comments] |
2023.03.24 23:47 Beneficial-Plane-137 Anyone else getting the same for the new event? Every time…
 | submitted by Beneficial-Plane-137 to TopDrives [link] [comments] |
2023.03.24 22:15 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.24 22:15 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
2023.03.24 22:14 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 24th, 2023
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23
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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($CCL $BNTX $LULU $MU $IZEA $SKLZ $WBA $HTHT $FUTU $LOVE $RH $PAYX $IHS $GOEV $CALM $PLAY $RUM $CTAS $CNM $MKC $BB $EVGO $VERO $AUGX $RGF $GMDA $SNX $RAIL $AEHR $PVH $SRT $UGRO $AADI $PRGS $DNMR $NEOG $CONN $IMBI $SOL $LOV $GROY $EE $ABOS $CNXC $UNF $AMPS $JEF $ESLT $CURI $DARE)
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(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
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2023.03.24 22:12 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning March 27th, 2023.
Stocks close higher Friday as investors try to shake off latest bank fears: Live updates - (Source)
Stocks rose Friday, reversing their earlier session declines as Deutsche Bank shares pared back some losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 132.28 points, or 0.41%, closing at 32,238.15. The S&P 500 rose 0.57%, while Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.3%. The major indexes all had a winning week, with the Dow gaining 0.4% week-to-date as of Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.
Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares slid 3.11% Friday, rebounding from a 7% drop earlier in the trading session. A selloff of shares was triggered after the the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped, but without an apparent catalyst. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry. Earlier this month, Swiss regulators forced a UBS acquisition of rival Credit Suisse. Deutsche Bank shares traded off their worst levels of the session, which caused major U.S. indexes to also cut their losses.
“I think that the market overall is neither frightened nor optimistic — it’s simply confused,” said George Ball, president at Sanders Morris Harris. “The price action for the last month-and-a-half, including today, is a jumble without any direction or conviction.”
Ball added that Deutsche Bank is “very sound financially.”
“It could be crippled if there’s a big loss of confidence and there’s a run on the bank. There is, however, no fundamental reason why that should occur, other than nervousness.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to ease concerns, saying euro zone banks are resilient with strong capital and liquidity positions. Lagarde said the ECB could provide liquidity if needed.
Investors continued to assess the Fed’s latest policy move announced this week. The central bank hiked rates by a quarter-point. However, it also hinted that its rate-hiking campaign may be ending soon. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that credit conditions have tightened, which could put pressure on the economy.
On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said regulators are prepared to take more action if needed to stabilize U.S. banks. Her comments are the latest among regulators attempting to buoy confidence in the U.S. banking system in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank closures.
“Retail [and] institutional investors are both looking at the banking system, but now internationally. That’s dangerous,” Ball added. “Banks exist because of confidence in their stability, and that confidence can be eroded as we now see, via social media and technology in a matter of minutes.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)
Best and Worst Stocks Since the COVID Crash Low
We are now three years out from the COVID Crash low, and even with the past year's weakness, most assets continue to sit on solid gains. For major US index ETFs, the S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) is up the most having slightly more than doubled while the S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) is not far behind having rallied 95.9%. Value has generally outperformed growth, especially for mid and small-caps although that has shifted somewhat this year. For example, while its gains have been more middling since the COVID crash, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been the strongest area of the equity market in 2023 thanks to the strength of sectors like Tech (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC). Although those sectors have posted strong gains this year, they have been the weakest over the past three years while Energy (XLE) far and away has been the strongest asset class. Paired with the strength of energy stocks has been solid runs in commodities (DBC)more broadly with the notable exception being Natural Gas (UNG) which has lost over 40%. Bond ETFs are similarly sitting on losses since the COVID Crash lows. As for international markets, Mexico (EWW) and India (PIN) have outpaced the rest of the world although Emerging Markets (EEM) as a whole have not been particularly strong; likely being dragged on by the weaker performance of China (ASHR) which holds a large weight on EEM.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking a look at current S&P 500 members, nearly half of the index has more than doubled over the past three years. As for the absolute best performers, Energy stocks dominate the list with four of the top five best-performing S&P 500 stocks coming from that sector. Targa Resources (TRGP) has been the absolute best performer with a nearly 900% total return. Other notables include a couple of heavy weight stocks: Tesla (TSLA) and NVIDIA (NVDA) with gains of 563.9% and 412.9%, respectively.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On the other end of the spectrum, there are currently 25 stocks that have posted a negative return since the COVID Crash low. The worst has been First Republic Bank (FRC) which has been more of a recent development. Whereas today the stock has posted an 83.1% loss, at the start of this month it would have been a 65% gain. Another standout on the list of worst performers has been Amazon (AMZN). Most other mega caps have more than doubled since the March 2020 S&P 500 low, however, the e-commerce giant has hardly offered a positive return.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Sector Performance Experiences a Historical Divergence
The first quarter of 2023 is coming to a close next week, and checking in on year to date performance, there has been a big divergence between the winners and losers. Although the S&P 500 is up 2.84% on the year as of yesterday's close, only three of the eleven sectors are higher. Not only are those three sectors up on the year, but they have posted impressive double digit gains only three months into the year. Of those three, Consumer Discretionary has posted the smallest gain of 10% whereas Technology and Communication Services have risen 17.2% and 18.1%, respectively. The fact that these sectors are home to the main mega cap stocks -- like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL), which have been on an impressive run of late -- helps to explain how the market cap weighted S&P 500 is up on the year without much in the way of healthy breadth on a sector level.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
One thing that is particularly remarkable about this year's sector performance is just how rare it is for a sector to be up 10%+ (let alone 3) while all other sectors are lower. And that is for any point of the year let alone in the first quarter. As we mentioned in yesterday's Sector Snapshot and show in the charts below, going back to 1990, there have only been two other periods in which a sector has risen at least 10% YTD while all other sectors were lower YTD. The first of those was in May 2009. In a similar instance to now, Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Materials were the three sectors with double digit gains back then. With those sectors up solidly, the S&P 500 was little changed on the year with a less than 1% gain. As you can see below, though, by the end of 2009, every sector had pushed into positive territory as the new bull market coming out of the global financial crisis was well underway.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The next occurrence was much more recent: 2022. Obviously, it was a tough year for equities except for the Energy sector which had a banner year. Throughout most of the year, the sector traded up by well over 20% year to date even while the rest of the equity market was battered.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The Fed Expects Banking Stress to Substitute for Rate Hikes
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% at their March meeting, bringing it to the 4.75-5.0% range. This is the ninth-straight rate increase and brings rates to their highest level since 2007. However, the most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s, which saw them lift rates all the way from near zero to almost 5%, is near its end.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Up until early February, Fed officials expected to raise rates to a maximum of about 5.1% and hold it there for a while. However, since that time, we’ve gotten a slew of strong economic data, including elevated inflation numbers. This pushed fed officials to give “guidance” that they expected to raise rates by more than they estimated back in December.
Market expectations for policy also moved in conjunction. Prior to February, markets expected the Fed to raise rates to 5% by June, and subsequently lower them by about 0.5% by the end of the year. But strong incoming data and Fed guidance pushed expectations higher, with the terminal rate moving up to 5.6% and no cuts in 2023.
The Silicon Valley Bank crisis changed everything
The bank crisis that erupted over the last couple of weeks resulted in a significant shift, both in expectations for policy and now the Fed as well. See here for our complete rundown on SVB and the ensuing crisis.
Market expectations for Fed policy rates immediately moved lower. Markets expected the stress in banks to translate to tighter credit conditions, which in turn would lead to slower economic growth and lower inflation.
This was nicely articulated by Professor Jeremey Siegel, one of the foremost commentators on financial markets and fed policy, in our latest episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, Prof. Siegel said that tighter credit conditions, as lending standards become more strict, are de facto rate hikes.
Fed Chair Powell more or less said exactly the same thing after the Fed’s March meeting. The 0.25% increase was an attempt to thread the needle between financial stability and fighting inflation. Fed officials also forecast the fed funds rate to hit a maximum of 5.1%, unchanged from their December estimate. This is a marked shift from what was expected just a few weeks ago, with Powell explicitly saying that tighter credit conditions “substitute” for rate hikes.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s a lot of uncertainty ahead
While the recent bank stresses are expected to tighten credit conditions and thereby impact economic growth and inflation, there are a couple of open questions:
These are unknown currently. Which means future policy is also unknown.
- How big will the impact be?
- How long will the impact last?
Fed officials expect to take rates to 5.1%, i.e., one more rate increase. And then expect to hold it there through the end of the year. In short, they don’t expect rate cuts this year.
Yet investors expect no more rate increases and about 0.6% of rate cuts in the second half of 2023. Markets expect the policy rate in June to be at 4.8%, while expectations for December are at 4.2%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s clearly a huge gulf between what the Fed expects versus what investors expect. This will have to reconcile in one of two ways:
Things are obviously not going to go in either direction in a straight line. It’s going to be a bumpy ride as new data points come in, not to mention news/rumors of renewed problems in the banking sector.
- Market expectations move higher – if economic/inflation data remain strong and credit conditions don’t look to be tightening significantly.
- Fed expectations move lower – if the banking sector comes under renewed stress, credit conditions could tighten significantly and eventually lead to weaker data.
Seasonality Keeps Claims Below 200K?
Initial jobless claims remained healthy this week with another sub-200K print. Claims fell modestly to 191K from last week's unrevised reading of 192K. That small decline exceeded expectations of claims rising up to 197K. Given claims continue to impress, the seasonally adjusted number has come in below 200K for 9 of the last 10 weeks. By that measure, it has been the strongest stretch for claims since last April when there were 10 weeks in a row of sub-200K prints. Prior to that, from 2018 through 2020 the late March and early April period similarly saw consistent readings under 200K meaning that some of the strength in the adjusted number could be on account of residual seasonality.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In fact, this point of the year has some of the weeks in which claims have the most consistently historically fallen week over week. Taking a historical median of claims throughout the year, claims tend to round out a short-term bottom in the spring before an early summer bump. In other words, seasonal strength will begin to wane in the coming months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While initial claims improved, continuing claims worsened rising to 1.694 million from 1.68 million the previous week. Albeit higher, that remains below the 2023 high of 1.715 million set at the end of February.
A Fed Day Like Most Others
Yesterday's Fed decision and comments from Fed Chair Powell gave markets plenty to chew on. As we discussed in last night's Closer and today's Morning Lineup, there have been a number of conflicting statements from officials and confusing reactions in various assets over the past 24 hours. In spite of all that uncertainty, the S&P 500's path yesterday pretty much followed the usual script. In the charts below we show the S&P's average intraday pattern across all Fed days since Powell has been chair (first chart) and the intraday chart of the S&P yesterday (second chart). As shown, the market's pattern yesterday, especially after the 2 PM ET rate decision and the 2:30 PM press conference, closely resembled the average path that the market has followed across all Powell Fed Days since 2018.
The S&P saw a modest bounce after the 2 PM Fed decision and then a further rally right after Powell's presser began at 2:30 PM. That initial post-presser spike proved to be a pump-fake, as markets ultimately sold off hard with a near 2% decline from 2:30 PM to the 4 PM close.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
So what typically happens in the week after Fed days? Since 1994 when the Fed began announcing policy decisions on the same day as its meeting, the S&P has averaged a decline of 10 basis points over the next week. During the current tightening cycle that began about a year ago, market performance in the week after Fed days has been even worse with the S&P averaging a decline of 0.99%. However, when the S&P has been down over 1% on Fed days (like yesterday), performance over the next week has been positive with an average gain of 0.64%. As always, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What Now? An Update on Recent Bank Stress.
It’s been less than 2 weeks since Silicon Valley Bank’s stunning 48-hour collapse, and a few more banks have been caught in the fray. New York regulators closed the doors on Signature Bank on Sunday, March 12. A week later, US banks injected $30 billion into First Republic Bank to keep it afloat, and UBS acquired rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse in a government-brokered deal. In the midst of the chaos, your Carson Investment Research team was there for you with client-facing content, professional advice, and investment solutions. In fact, we think this event presents an opportunity to invest in the more stable large-cap financial companies and recently upgraded the sector to overweight in our House Views Advice.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Why is this happening?
The rapid hike in interest rates caused an asset and liability mismatch for banks. Due to many years of low-interest rates, banks invested assets in interest-earning loans and bonds that would be repaid over the next five-plus years, which at the time was a logical way to earn a higher yield. Regulators considered government bonds to be among the safest ways a bank could invest its capital. As interest rates rose, bond values dropped. Interest rates rose at the fastest pace in history, and the safe assets that banks invested in lost value to the tune of more than $620 billion in unrealized losses as of the end of last year. This decline in value left weaker banks underwater and, when coupled with depositors pulling money out, caused them to collapse or seek costly capital raises.
Why this matters to investors?
The weakness in the banking sector will likely lead to tighter lending standards, potentially slowing economic growth. The reason we’re in this mess, to begin with, is that the Fed hiked interest rates to slow the economy because inflation was rising too quickly. Perhaps the 16% drop in oil prices over the past two weeks reflected this slower growth and bodes well for continued falling inflation. Thus, the Fed is closer to achieving its goal.
Maybe it’s an overreaction as “banking crisis” headlines stir painful memories of 2008. Either way, an environment with slower growth and lower inflation isn’t a bad time to invest. Bonds and stocks could both perform well, especially stocks of companies with the ability to grow earnings. We also reiterate our House Views Advice overweight on the large-cap Financials sector. The largest US banks are well-capitalized and are gaining market share from the smaller regional banks. We believe this calamity provides an opportunity for stronger banks and investors to capitalize on.
FANG+ Flying
As we noted in today's Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Playing into that sector level performance has been the strength of the mega-caps. The NYSE FANG+ index tracks ten of the largest and most highly traded Tech and Tech-adjacent names. In the past several days, that cohort of stocks is breaking out to the highest level since last April whereas the S&P 500 still needs to rally 4% to reach its February high.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full year of underperformance. As shown below, relative to the S&P 500, mega-cap Tech consistently underperformed from February 2021 through this past fall. In the past few days, the massive outperformance has resulted in a breakout of the downtrend for the ratio of FANG+ to the S&P 500.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
More impressive is how rapid of a move it has been for that ratio to break out. Below, we show the 2-month percent change in the ratio above. As of the high at yesterday's close, the ratio had risen 22.5% over the prior two months. That comes up just short of the record (22.6%) leading up to the pre-COVID high in February 2020. In other words, mega-cap Tech has experienced near-record outperformance relative to the broader market. However, we would note that this is in the wake of last year when the group had seen some of its worst two-month underperformance on record with the worst readings being in March, May, and November.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
March Seasonality Prevails, Banking Fiasco Be Damned
It’s encouraging typical March seasonal patterns have overcome recent bank failures, recession talk and fearmongering. The early March pullback was steeper than normal, but the usual mid-month rebound appears to be materializing.
Last week’s gains could be an indication we have seen the worst of the banking fallout and the end of the pullback. Triple Witching Weeks have tended to be down in flat periods and dramatically so during bear markets. Positive March Triple Witching weeks in 2003 and 2009 confirmed the market was back in rally mode.
The week after March Triple Witching is notoriously nasty. S&P is down 27 of the last 40 year – and frequently down sharply. Positive or flat action this week would be constructive.
In the old days March used to come in like a bull and out like a bear. Nowadays March has evolved into an inflection point where short-term trends often change course. The market is clearly at an important juncture and it’s a good time to remember Warren Buffet’s wise words to “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bank failures are never a good thing, but the swift actions of regulators likely prevented further damage to the industry. At the least, the banks are likely to be under even greater scrutiny going forward. In the near-term we expect more volatile trading. Further out we expect the market, and the economy will recover like they both have historically done.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Nasdaq Leaves the S&P in the Dust
Looking at the major US index ETF screen of our Trend Analyzer shows just how disconnected the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has become from other major index ETFs recently. As shown below, as of Friday's close, QQQ actually finished in overbought territory (over 1 standard above its 50-DMA) whereas many other major index ETFs were oversold, some of those to an extreme degree. On a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has rallied more than 14% compared to low single digit gains or losses for the rest of the pack.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Historically, the major indices, namely the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, tend to trade at similar overbought and oversold levels. In the chart below we show the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500's distance from their 50-DMAs (expressed in standard deviations) over the past five years. As shown, typically the two large cap indices have seen similar albeit not identical readings. That is until the past few weeks in which the two have diverged more significantly.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday there was more than 2 standard deviations between the Nasdaq's overbought 50-DMA spread and the S&P 500's oversold spread. As shown in the chart below, that surpassed recent highs in the spread like the spring of 2020 to set the highest reading since October 2016.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Going back to 1985, the spread between the Nasdaq and S&P 500 50-DMA spreads diverging to such a degree is not without precedent, but it is also not exactly common. Friday marked the 16th time that spread eclipsed 2 standard deviations for the first time in at least 3 months. Relative to those prior instances, the current overbought and oversold readings in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relatively middling. However, only the instance in early 2000 similarly saw the Nasdaq technically overbought (trading at least a standard deviation above its 50-DMA) while the S&P 500 was simultaneously oversold (at least one standard deviation below its 50-DMA).
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3/26/23
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DISCUSS!
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!
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Anonymous readerReport<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n2015-01-12 16:37:59<\/div>\nIt would have been better if you had cut his dick off .<\/div>\n
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anonymous readerReport<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n2013-10-26 00:43:50<\/div>\nyF4jBm Appreciate you sharing, great article.Much thanks again.<\/div>\n
\n
anonymous readerReport<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n2013-09-15 09:48:08<\/div>\nNicki,We have received so many coeinpmmlts back from family and friends after we had sent along the link to the pictures you took of Caroline. Thanks very much as we love each one of them.Best,Mark Meehan<\/div>\n
\n","
anonymous readerReport<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n2013-09-13 11:16:11<\/div>\ntuFSPc Looking forward to reading more. Great post.Much thanks again. Want more.<\/div>\n
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anonymous readerReport<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n2013-09-13 00:50:39<\/div>\nFWuUDh Thank you ever so for you article.Really looking forward to read more. Great.<\/div>\n
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anonymous readerReport<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n2012-02-11 23:34:03<\/div>\nqkEXbr I am glad that your blog is constantly evolving. Such posts only gain in popularity!...<\/div>\n
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anonymous readerReport<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n2011-07-06 15:49:39<\/div>\nHaha XD
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\n","
Anon60Report<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n2009-11-04 18:11:14<\/div>\nI have read all of your posts, and although some are better than others, all in all you are one of the best authors here. As a rule, your grammer and vocabulary are far above average and your stories are very good. If you post more, I will definatly read them.<\/div>\n
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Karen~<\/a>Report<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n2009-05-03 17:40:30<\/div>\nI laughed. ;)
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Anonymous readerReport<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n2009-03-15 15:37:19<\/div>\nhehe!<\/div>\n
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Anonymous readerReport<\/a> <\/span><\/h4>\n2009-03-07 05:07:08<\/div>\ngood story!<\/div>\n
submitted by ywfbewrmkv to iwwuf4zlv1 [link] [comments]
\n"],"current":0,"nb_page":3};«123»Anonymous readerReport
2016-11-03 03:52:11
That bitch a savage
Anonymous readerReport
2015-01-12 16:37:59
It would have been better if you had cut his dick off .
Anonymous readerReport
2014-03-05 10:26:34
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anonymous readerReport
2013-10-26 00:43:50
yF4jBm Appreciate you sharing, great article.Much thanks again.
anonymous readerReport
2013-09-15 09:48:08
Nicki,We have received so many coeinpmmlts back from family and friends after we had sent along the link to the pictures you took of Caroline. Thanks very much as we love each one of them.Best,Mark Meehan
«123»
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素晴らしいヌルジェルファックとマッサージ
その他のロータス＆ジョンEデート
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魅惑的なチョコレートホールが釘付け
彼女は彼女が望むどんなディックもクソしています
大きな戦利品のインドのひよこ
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ホワイトアナル熟女中出し
両方の穴で犯されているNovinha - GaucholuizとSantinha Safadinha
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処女アレクサは彼女の無実の猫に触れます。彼女は興奮してカメラの前でオナニーします。信じられないほど刺激的な処女オナニー。
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牛乳
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一度に2本の大きな黒いチンポを扱えると思います
認証動画
ボインのドイツの熟女極端なラフ強打
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家庭用中国語声優Asmr 帰省しない夫が妻にM男にされる
ヌルマッサージはホットシャワーファックで終わります1
黒人ポルノスターとの異人種ぶっかけセックス5
若い白：19歳の猫は彼女がナッツを吸うタイトな猫のハメ撮りを赤骨にした
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ホットガールはエロティックな午後のファックを楽しんでいます15
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ホットストッキングベイビーニカからの最高品質のエロチカ
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イギリスの赤毛ティーンジジルージュアナルおもちゃソロ
ホットガールはエロティックな午後のファックを楽しんでいます22
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巨乳のヴァレンティーナ・ナッピとの飲み込んだオーラルプレイタイム
（アンジェラ・ソマーズ）アマチュアの女の子が彼女の猫に入れてクレイジーセックスシングスビデオ-04
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邪悪な-アンジェラホワイトはクリステンスコットとカムすることを学ぶ
セックス
フェムドムハンピングは、各ラブスティックを非常に大きくて硬くします
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大きなお尻元ガールフレンドの猫の性交
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エモゴスレスボス337
幕後第一部分
Taylee Wood VS Mike Chapman、かなり曲がりくねった若い白い美人の口の肛門SZ2448で古いBBCの小便
情熱的に繁殖している若いゲイのアジアの足フェティシスト
ケンタッキー州の巨乳の妻と夫はプロのセックステープを望んでいます
アマチュア公共ピックアップ
大きなお尻のブロンドのGFを持つアマチュアカップルはそれらで作られたプロのセックステープを望んでいます
成熟したフランスの肛門輪姦もお尻が犯された！
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偽の巨大なおっぱいブロンドのdpマシンが犯された
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私の夫はほとんど私の隣人にそれを与えている私を捕まえました
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欲求不満のチンポが誘惑
私が高いパート1を取得している間私にずさんな頭を与えている部族の女の子
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彼が性交した後、彼女は彼のお尻を食べる。CRI055
厄介な野生の白人の女の子との栄光の穴異人種間6
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イスラム教徒の女性が夫から逃げ出した
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自由使用のステップファミリーのコーリーチェイス-ステップシスターは二重に浸透しています
巨大なディルドで自慰行為をしているピアスクリトリスを持つターニャ
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おいしい
大きなお尻のベイブは複数のクリームパイで私のボールを空にしました
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トリビュート
アレックスアンドレスはトリスタンの巨大なゲイの男の子を吸い取ります
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スケベな小さなアマチュア娼婦は中に10ポンドを感じています
マヤとの甘いハードコアグループセックス（アニメーション）
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母クロニーの娘マッサージと女子高生パパマネーハングリー
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潮吹きゴスガールはもっとザーメンが必要8
ホットブラック
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セクシーな熟女ニーナは彼女の息子のようなポルノシーンを作りたいです
曲がりくねった角質の女の子が一人で家に帰る
3DXChat-ヘテロポーズ（パート /43）
ドイツの女の子はハード後背位を犯した
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これらのパンストは私をJOIとセックスしたくさせます
ホットコンパイルで短い髪のティーンモデルベイリークラインのセクシーなダンス
エキゾチックなシルヴィア・ルビはそれをすべて望んでいます
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魅惑的なディックを飲み込む
彼の口の中で
あなたはあなたの精液または他のCEIを食べるでしょう
官能的な女の子が現金のためにセックスをするように話しました5
野生の苦痛のために美しさを結ぶ
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私は私のボーイフレンドのディックが大好きです（HQ）-TeenCamGirlz.com
ビッチはお尻をとてもよくファックします-ThaynaSantos-EdJúnior--
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私がJOIからあなたをぐいと動かしている間、私の目を見てください
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彼はコックのために固くなるだけです
超ホットなベネズエラの若い女性は、この大きなペニスを受け入れることはできません
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妻のマンコを手マンに浸す
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ホットニュー
kinkycouple69パイズリ、自慰行為、チンポしゃぶり
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09 34あなたの女の子がストリッパーのペニスを吸っているのを見ました！40
私のビッグブラックディック
グレートディックサッキング423
クララブラジルは歩いて、小刻みに動き、西洋わさびを見せています
青い髪巨乳のガールフレンドは、ホームビデオでセックスされます